Naveen Patnaik has never lost a general election. He is unlikely to lose the upcoming one in 2024 either.
The setback for the BJP in Karnataka – where it was swept out of power by a resilient Congress – serves as a kind of surety that Patnaik’s ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) will not face a serious threat to its uninterrupted rule in Odisha since 2000.
There could be many reasons for Patnaik to feel smug at the moment.
For one, the Karnataka results have served a valuable reminder to the limitations of the much-vaunted BJP electoral machinery despite it being a veritable juggernaut. Up against a formidable opponent and when pitted against popular will, the BJP can be made to bite the dust as the Odisha patriarch’s own party has repeatedly proven over the years.
An erstwhile ally of Patnaik, the BJP was trounced by the BJD in successive elections – first in 2009, and then resoundingly again in 2014 and 2019.
Odisha will go to the polls – both for the Lok Sabha and the state assembly – next in 2024, and there is nothing to suggest that the outcome next year would be any different.
But the reason for the outcome could have as much to do with a tactical retreat by the BJP as it would with Patnaik’s unmatched popularity that the BJP has failed to dent in any way.
Also read: Why the Karnataka Election Results Are a Big Jolt for the BJP
In the past, the BJP has always had a tacit understanding with the BJD. It has more pressing reasons to renew it for the future, post the debacle in Karnataka.
Though theoretically Odisha’s principal opposition party, BJP’s confrontation with the BJD has been cleverly calibrated, ebbing and flowing according to the needs of the saffron party.
To begin with, the BJP in 2014 – the year that Prime Minister Narendra Modi stormed into power – made a serious bid to dislodge the BJD. But once it failed, the party went surprisingly quiet. Minus adequate numbers in the Rajya Sabha, the BJP needed the support of BJD MPs to pass its bills, and Patnaik readily obliged.
The arrangement continued right until 2019 when the BJP, enthused by Modi’s sustained popularity, made yet another bid to wrest power from Patnaik.
It bombed again.
Far from being unseated, the BJD won with an improved tally in the state assembly. However, it yielded some ground in the elections for Lok Sabha held simultaneously, with the BJP winning 8 of the state’s 21 parliamentary seats.
Up from just one in the previous house, the increased Lok Sabha count should have galvanised the BJP into taking on the BJD with renewed vigour. In reality, it went quiet again, with Patnaik MPs continuing to support the BJP government at the Union government as and when required.
Compared to BJP’s hyperactive role in neighbouring West Bengal where the party continues to oppose Mamata Banerjee with single-minded determination, the party’s opposition to Patnaik has been lacklustre if not half-hearted.
BJP leaders do criticise the BJD and stage demonstrations against it from time to time. But those in the know say they are more perfunctory and more for playing to the gallery.
Patnaik too has reciprocated consistently to the BJP’s kid gloves treatment. Visiting Delhi soon after the Karnataka polls, the Odisha chief minister scoffed at speculations that his party could be joining an anti-BJP front that the likes of Nitish Kumar are attempting to stitch together.
“We would be equidistant,” Patnaik insisted. Clearly, he is quite content with the clandestine arrangement that is in place with the BJP.
Post-Karnataka, the BJP should be more eager to ensure that the same arrangement continues. Spurred by the setback in the southern state, its top brass would have by now gone back to the planning board, drawing up Plan A, Plan B and Plan C to prepare for any eventuality that may arise after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
What if the BJP loses seats in Maharashtra, the state where it grabbed power by engineering a split in the rival Shiv Sena? Or, what if the party does not do as well as in West Bengal where it won 18 seats the last time?
Also read: BJD Minister’s Stinging Critique of Modi Govt Creates Ripples in Odisha’s Political Circles
Any losses suffered would have to be made up from other regions, and the BJP isn’t left with too many territories to offset them. But what about Odisha? The BJP can choose to be realistic and downsize its ambitions in the state with an eye on the future.
Election after election, including a clutch of by-elections, have shown that the BJP is no match for Patnaik. He keeps winning elections. In absence of any discernible wave against him, it is likely that Patnaik will sweep the state once again in 2024.
So, with little or no realistic chance of defeating him, the BJP could opt for the next best thing: it can be pragmatic in giving Patnaik a virtual walkover the next time around when Odisha votes.
Of course, the BJP will contest the elections. But as has been the case between the BJP and BJD for the most part, the fight put up by the BJP would be less than sincere and Patnaik’s party would romp home with a majority of seats.
Patnaik would have won in any case. But with the BJP making it easy, an obliged patriarch could be counted upon to extend his numerical support if the need arises.
Though purely hypothetical now, such an understanding cannot be put past both the parties in view of their previous track record. It would be a win-win for both in the final analysis. That it would not be a democratic contest in the strictest sense should not put off either. The stakes are higher and every ploy to suit political interests should be fair game.
Ruben Banerjee is the former editor-in-chief of Outlook, and the author of the books Naveen Patnaik and Editor Missing: The Media in Today’s India.