INDIA Alliance Passes First By-Poll Test Well, But Needs to Sort Out Differences in Key States

The by-polls indicate that INDIA could pose a formidable challenge to the NDA in the near future. But before that it will need to iron out some of the state-level differences.

New Delhi: The by-polls to seven assembly segments across six states was supposed to be the first electoral challenge for the opposition front, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), and given that it has been able to trump the Bharatiya Janata Party in some of its strongest pocket boroughs, the alliance has rather passed the test rather well. 

Uttar Pradesh

The biggest of its wins occurred in Ghosi, Uttar Pradesh, where the sitting legislator and backward caste leader Dara Singh Chauhan who had been elected on a Samajwadi Party ticket switched over to the BJP and tendered his resignation. The Samajwadi Party candidate and veteran leader Sudhakar Singh has defeated Chauhan by 42,759 votes in this important constituency in eastern UP.

The BJP had turned the contest into a prestige battle, with the chief minister Adityanath and his two deputies Keshav Prasad Maurya and Brijesh Pathak, along with prominent ministers, canvassing constantly in the run-up to the by-polls. Chauhan’s return to the BJP was being considered as an important gain for the party, as it did not have a prominent leader in the Noniya Chauhan community which is a substantial voting bloc in regions around Varanasi. 

The SP candidate was fielded as a INDIA representative in Ghosi, while the Bahujan Samaj Party stuck to its policy of not contesting by-polls. Resultantly, the contest was bi-polar and the crucial Dalit Jatav voters, considered to be the traditional supporters of BSP, appear to have leaned towards the INDIA candidate. In keeping with the INDIA narrative, former chief minister and SP president Akhilesh Yadav said that the INDIA’s political formula ‘PDA’ (standing for pichda dalit alpsankhayak or ‘OBC, Dalits, and minorities’) alliance on ground will trump the BJP in the future. Team INDIA hai, aur PDA rajneeti,” he said

Bengal

The second-most important victory for INDIA happened in West Bengal’s Dhupguri where the ruling Trinamool Congress wrested the seat from the BJP. The victory is an important one for the TMC in this north Bengal constituency – BJP’s biggest stronghold in the state. Chief minister Mamata Banerjee has been attempting to get a stronger foothold in north and central Bengal where it is considered relatively weaker when compared to its massive footprint in south Bengal. 

With BJP’s loss in Dhupguri, the party will have to rethink its strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, as it now risks losing in its strongholds. However, even the INDIA bloc will have to iron out its differences in Bengal. Unlike UP, where INDIA fielded a single representative, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) had fielded its candidate in Dhupguri.

The Left candidate secured merely 13,000 votes, but turned the contest into a nail-biting affair where TMC barely made it to the finish line, edging past the BJP candidate by only around 4,000 votes. The division of votes in the opposition ranks may harm INDIA’s prospects if TMC-Left’s traditional rivalry is not resolved ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. 

Kerala

In Kerala, former Congress chief minister Oommen Chandy’s son Chandy Oommen registered a comprehensive win over the Left Democratic Alliance’s candidate in Puthupally, improving upon even his father’s performance. The seat was vacated by the veteran Congress leader’s death.

The NDA candidate lost his deposit.

Unlike Bengal, the rivalry between the Left and the Congress can in no way give an advantage to the BJP, as the saffron party has been a non-starter in the state for years now despite desperate efforts to make an impact. Whichever party wins in Kerala, it will only add to the INDIA tally. 

Tripura

The BJP can derive some solace over its wins in two constituencies of Tripura. It retained Dhanpur and wrested Boxanagar from the CPI(M). The Boxanagar victory is a significant one for the saffron party as it was up against a combined opposition in the segment. The victory margin of nearly 30,000 votes will make the win sweeter for the BJP as its candidate Taffajal Hossain secured almost 66% of the vote share, defeating CPI(M)’s Mizan Hossain who got merely 3,909 votes. 

In Jharkhand’s Dumri, the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha candidate retained his seat, while the BJP retained Uttarakhand’s Bageshwar but not without a stiff challenge by the Congress. 

The by-polls indicate that INDIA could pose a formidable challenge to the NDA in the near future. But before that it will need to iron out some of the state-level differences between its constituents and arrive at a mutually-agreed formula to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.