Pathanamthitta: Kerala’s ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPIM), and the main opposition bloc, the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Indian National Congress, will be competing against each other in all 20 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
While the Left and the Congress are partners in the INDIA bloc taking on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alluance nationally, they remain competitors in Kerala, where the BJP is still a weak force.
Despite the significant presence of the RSS, which is often in the news for its violent struggle against the Left, the BJP has no electoral foothold and has failed to secure a single seat in the last Lok Sabha elections.
The strong anti-BJP sentiment in the state had delivered a sweeping victory for the UDF, with 19 seats in the 2019 general elections. The Congress won 15, while its allies the Indian Union of Muslim League (IUML), the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) and the Kerala Congress Mani (KCM) group won another four.
Having lost Tripura, where it was in power until 2018, the Left faced a major setback in 2019 as the CPI(M) managed to secure just one seat from the Alappuzha constituency. The Congress, governing six states at the time, was perceived as being in a stronger position to oppose the BJP in parliament.
Why is Congress losing steam in Kerala?
However, the perceived failure of the Congress to effectively defend Kerala’s federal rights in parliament in a scenario where the Union government has been withholding funds to the state has caused significant frustration among Kerala’s voters.
Historically, during similar challenges, both the ruling and opposition parties had come together to defend the state’s rights. This time, however, the Congress MPs from Kerala have failed to muster an effective defence of the state’s financial rights in the parliament, leaving many constituents feeling disappointed. In several constituencies, increasing cases of human-wildlife conflicts, posing a threat both to lives and to agricultural produce, have also become an electoral issue. The state government has urged the Centre to consider amendments to the Wildlife Act to enable farmers to protect their fields from wildlife. The silence of the Congress MPs on the refusal of the Centre to act on this request of the state government has been another cause for disappointment in many districts.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
However, the most significant factor that has put the Congress in a spot, as Keralites vote on April 26, is arguably its perceived adoption of “soft Hindutva” in North Indian states and its hesitancy to directly confront the Hindutva movement.
“In Kerala, there is a significant level of apprehension regarding the contentious Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA),” said senior journalist Sreejith Divakaran. While the LDF has always maintained a clear position that it will not implement the CAA in the state and has reiterated the same in its manifesto, the UDF’s manifesto steers clear of this polarising issue.
“This reluctance to take a clear stance against CAA has led to a loss of trust in Congress,” Divakaran added.
P. Sarin, the convenor of the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) Digital Cell, however, contends that the near absence of the CAA in the Congress manifesto should not be misinterpreted as indifference.
He attributed the omission of the term “CAA” in the manifesto to a technicality, emphasising that the BJP implemented CAA just ahead of the election period as a calculated move. Insisting that the Congress has a firm commitment to protect minority rights and abolish the CAA, he explained that the party nevertheless consciously chose not to engage with it directly in their manifesto as it perceives the issue as bait from the BJP.
Votes from the Muslim minority, who amount to 26.56% of Kerala’s population, “often play a decisive role in Lok Sabha elections,” Divakaran said. The Muslim population, placed in the crosshairs of the unfolding Hindutva project of the BJP, has thus been questioning the Congress’s will and ability to defend their rights.
There are other factors that have worried the Congress. Tensions have also surfaced between the Congress and its historic ally in Kerala, the IUML, after Congress MP Shashi Tharoor labelled Hamas as terrorists during a Palestine solidarity event organised by the IUML.
Such characterisation by a senior Congress figure holds particular importance, especially as even the BJP-led Indian government hesitates from labelling Hamas as a terrorist group, despite lobbying by Israel. Tensions heightened within the UDF when the Congress prevented IUML’s participation in a CPI(M)-led event supporting Palestine in November 2023.
The Congress’s other key ally in the state, the KCM, had already departed from the UDF in 2020, opting to join the LDF, thereby adding its seat to the Left bloc. Its importance extends beyond one parliamentary seat which it won in 2019. The backing and organisational efforts of KCM’s grassroots members have played a vital role in securing many seats for Congress candidates on earlier occasions.
Divakaran observed that the confidence of Keralites in the Congress is also diminishing due to the defection of hundreds of Congress leaders across the country into the BJP over the last several years. The defection of Congress’s stalwart leader K. Karunakaran’s daughter, Padmaja Venugopal, to the BJP has particularly unsettled its supporters. However, Sarin maintains that the exit of BJP supporters from the ranks of the Congress will only strengthen the party.
Both the Congress and the BJP in Kerala have faced criticism due to their acceptance of electoral bonds. The disclosure that both parties received funds from MRF, a prominent player in the rubber cartel, has raised concerns among rubber farmers. Considering that Kerala is India’s top rubber producer, this sentiment carries considerable weight in the state’s electoral landscape.
High hopes of Left revival as Congress defends its turf
In contrast, the CPI(M) has positioned itself on a moral high ground, refusing to accept donations in this form. Its five-year legal battle against electoral bonds culminated in a victory, as the Supreme Court declared electoral bonds unconstitutional in February.
LDF’s support has also expanded in the state due to the government’s handling of the multiple natural calamities and epidemic outbreaks, which has earned praise not only within Kerala, but also internationally.
This has contributed to LDF’s return to power in the state in 2021. While it is not necessary that victory in the state reflects in the general elections, LDF’s re-election marks the first time any government in Kerala was re-elected for a second consecutive term in more than four decades. This has led many observers to anticipate an increase in the Left’s Lok Sabha seats from Kerala in the upcoming election.
Nonetheless, the UDF is also determined to defend its seats, rallying with the slogan “nothing less than 20 [seats]”.
T.N. Prathapan, the working president of KPCC, said, “Our slogan ‘Let India Live’ speaks to addressing the violence in Manipur and atrocities against the religious minorities and vowing to safeguard the Indian constitution, from the communal agenda of the BJP. Simultaneously, we are also critical of the LDF’s failure to safeguard the public distribution system and its struggles with the financial crisis.”
Prathapan highlighted the difficulties their campaign was facing as a result of the Union government’s decision to freeze their account. As a result, they rely largely on crowdfunding to finance and sustain their campaign.
Scheduled events highlight a series of notable visits aimed at revitalizing the Congress-led UDF. Rahul Gandhi is slated to address a public gathering at Kozhikode beach on April 15. Following this a roster of prominent figures, including Priyanka Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge, Telangana chief minister Revanth Reddy, Karnataka deputy chief minister D.K. Shivakumar, Sachin Pilot and P. Chidambaram will travel to the state.
Important constituencies
In Wayanad, the Congress is again counting on Rahul Gandhi, whose Kerala candidature may have a positive impact on its electoral prospects on the rest of the state. The LDF has fielded Annie Raja, prominent women’s rights activist and a national executive member of the Communist Party of India (CPI).
Former finance minister and CPI(M) Central Committee member T.M. Thomas Issac will be challenging Anto Antony, a three-time Congress MP from Pathanamthitta, which has historically been a stronghold of the Congress. The BJP is also vying for this seat, fielding Anil Antony, son of Congress leader and former defence minister A.K. Antony.
In the Thiruvananthapuram constituency, Tharoor aims for a fourth consecutive victory. The NDA, having finished second in the both 2014 and 2019 polls, has fielded Union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar. In its bid to regain this constituency, the LDF has fielded CPI’s Pannian Ravindran, a seasoned leader who previously won this seat in 2005.
Thrissur has garnered considerable attention as Prime Minister Narendra Modi kicked off NDA’s campaign here in January, endorsing popular actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi as the BJP’s candidate. LDF has nominated CPI’s V.S. Sunil Kumar, a former agriculture minister hailing from the constituency and rooted in the mass organisations of the farmers and youth. Congress has fielded K. Muraleedharan, whose sister Padmaja Venugopal defected to the BJP.
In the 2019 elections, Alappuzha was the only Left bastion the CPI(M) could retain. Its sitting MP, A.M. Arif, is set to defend his seat. Congress is making a bid for the seat by nominating a heavyweight candidate, K.C. Venugopal, who not only holds the position of All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary (organisation) but also serves as a sitting Rajya Sabha MP representing Rajasthan.
This election is a high stakes contest for both contenders in Kerala. For the LDF, whose Lok Sabha seats declined from 63 to just five over the last two decades, winning more seats from Kerala is crucial to reassert the Left’s national relevance in the parliament. On the other hand, for the Congress, which has lost its foot in North India, safeguarding its seats in the South Indian states like Kerala is an existential imperative.
In the meantime, even as they compete with each other, the parties in the LDF and the UDF will have to hold the barricade against the prospect of NDA gaining a seat in the state which had historically denied opportunities for the BJP to garner a foothold.
Anusha Paul is an independent journalist based in Kerala.
Note: An earlier version of this article erroneously stated that Rajeev Chandrasekhar had contested from the Thiruvananthapuram constituency in 2014 and 2019. This is the first time he is contesting from the seat. The error is regretted.