Ironic as it may seem, it has begun to appear that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s majoritarian, nativist, ideology alone is not proving sufficient to reassure him that in 2024 he will be on a winning streak yet again. This is weighing down the political context for him and could, on balance, persuade the leader to go to the country sooner.
The chips are not fully down yet, but the era of open optimism can now be discounted for the BJP, now in Modi’s total grasp with no room even for within-the-system consultation.
A call to arms in the name of religion – and the dog whistle that went with it – was earlier enough to rally the faithful. In the recent Karnataka assembly election, however, the only trick Modi can summon was of no avail in persuading most people who are not RSS groupies. Nor did an appeal to communal sentiment pay satisfactory dividend in Himachal Pradesh earlier. Voters are becoming more discriminating. They can now better see when the devotion is synthetic, linked only to keeping a hold on power, regardless of performance in office.
But there can be no doubt that Modi has left a deep, dark, imprint of his far-right ideology on the socio-political landscape of the country, more than any other representative of that belief system. In the space of nine years, he has fulfilled two key aspirations of the RSS-Jana Sangh, which the BJP took over as matters of legacy, and is on course to fulfil the third or make the right noises about it, pre-election, with a view to prising communal benefit out of it.
Leaving his impress on the judiciary with indubitable force, Modi has ensured the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya. Showing unconcern for principles and procedures, his government took away the constitutional privileges of Jammu and Kashmir, the country’s only Muslim-majority state. And work has begun in seeming earnest to wrap up the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) with intimations of a design that aims to further constrain India’s Muslims. The prime minister does seem to be in a hurry on this.
In the normal course, this should have been the perfect background to launch Modi’s bid for a shot at the job for the third time in a row, but the script has fallen short. The zealot has failed in his life’s clearly stated fourth ideological objective: to drive the Congress party to extinction. This was thought to be a low-hanging fruit. But circumstances have conspired to produce the opposite result.
The Congress grows in stride
The Congress’s stride has grown longer and stronger when greater has been Narendra Modi’s success on the legacy issues of his ideology. The much-advertised goal of a “Congress-mukt Bharat” – effectively, the driving of the Congress into the Arabian Sea – has disintegrated. Eliminating the party of Gandhi, Patel, Nehru, Bose and Azad from the scene is a necessary condition to establish the sway of a militarised political Hindu order, or Hindutva.
It is hard to miss the dialectic – indeed the great historical irony – that confronts the PM and his clique now. The Congress party has succeeded in energising and transforming itself even as the ideological agenda of the RSS-BJP was being spun out with messianic spirit by the man whose self-regard is that of the all-conquering emperor. This was not supposed to happen.
The poison feed of Hindutva appeared to produce a favourable response at first. The ranks of the faithful swelled. But when the social and economic logic produced in the ensuing turmoil brought its harsh results to a largely poor country with a syncretic tradition, a silent backlash began to emerge. The Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has provided the agency to tap the developing disenchantment.
His uncanny grasp of the simmering discontent produced the Bharat Jodo Yatra (BJY), which neatly encapsulated two connected strands that are not always immediately obvious – namely, that in Indian conditions, building an edifice on the enterprise of communalism cannot but be underwritten by big business, and this cannot but produce large-scale unemployment and adverse conditions of life for ordinary people.
Rahul Gandhi in Karnataka as part of the Bharat Jodo Yatra. Photo: Twitter/@INCIndia
Taking heart from the BJY, the Congress party has in quick time sought to re-order much of the scatter that had earlier characterised it. Party elections have produced an outstanding leader as the president, two state elections have been won on the trot, dissidence in key states has been addressed, and a governance agenda focusing on the underprivileged has been rolled out in party-run states. And this is producing a demonstration effect nationwide.
Importantly, in addition, the Congress seems to be embracing a new spirit. This looks to have three strands: to reach out to segments that are bearing the brunt of Modi-era policies and politics and on that basis seek to re-construct a key social force as a challenge to communal politics; to seek to connect with opposition parties in a wide arc in spite of some serious contradictions; and consciously link to dozens of social organisations and voluntary agencies across the country, many rooted in the legacy of Gandhian civil resistance, with offshoots connecting to Lohia and Jayaprakash. The value of these and their effort was underlined in the recent ouster of BJP rule in Karnataka.
Centre’s reputation in disarray
In contrast, the BJP-led Union government’s performance and reputation are in disarray. After adjusting for inflation, the much-touted growth rate, which the worshipful media sections love to talk up, is well below par and hitting tens of millions very hard. Unlike key major economies, India has not yet recovered to pre-COVID rates of growth – which were already depressed on account of demonetisation and faulty GST rollout. On the security side, large chunks of territory in Ladakh are under China’s occupation and the government seems too scared to say so outright. The wide and dark misuse of the CBI and Enforcement Directorate against opponents is a subject of discussion across the country.
The small border state of Manipur is on fire, the social fabric has been torn asunder, and the government has been accused of backing one side on a communal basis. Regime supporters have burned more than 300 churches without being afraid of advertising their anti-Christian attitude. The recent exposure of how those in authority have permitted open, public, sexual assaults on the bodies of women ‘captured’ with the police watching, has shocked India’s moral conscience – and are being anything but contrite.
This has come on the heels of feudal disregard by the regime of the months-long sit-in protest by some of our internationally-acclaimed women wrestlers against sexual oppression at the hands of a BJP MP. The overall question of male lawlessness in the context of women’s dignity and physical safety has angered public sentiment around the country. And, in Modi’s parliamentary constituency of Varanasi, a 60-year-old complex associated with Gandhian studies and social activities is being strong-armed by government and is threatened with demolition, leading to massive everyday protests.
Through all this, the Prime Minister has remained unmoved. His silence and unseeing and uncaring attitude has dented his reputation. This worries many in his own party but they dare not complain, fearing the dungeon treatment. Nevertheless, there is thriving dissidence within BJP in key states.
Representative image of a BJP flag. Photo: Ismat Ara/ The Wire
If Modi fares below par in the winter assembly election in five states, the ensuing demoralisation can bring on more pressure for the Lok Sabha poll four months on. The recent formation of the opposition grouping INDIA can mount further pressure. In contrast, the supposed tit-for-tat attempted re-vamping of the BJP-led NDA seems lacklustre, given that the BJP is internally faction-ridden in the states and at the Centre and that its principal allies in the states have long fled.
If the PM chooses to combine the parliament election and the upcoming state polls, Modi will still be taking a chance but he can use propaganda to good effect on three counts. His recent visit to the US and France where he was feted – since India is the world’s biggest arms importer – can be spun to some advantage; early Lok Sabha polls can potentially sow confusion among opposition parties aiming to mount an effective challenge upon the fabrication of a front against his regime.
But there is another thing to consider: the fear of an internal backlash if the state election results prove demoralising to leaders and cadres. For the regime which is at sea and is at this late stage in no position to take meaningful steps to stem the rot, but is nonetheless consumed by arrogant self-regard, the balance of convenience may just lie with going to the country early.