Gorakhpur: As the Uttar Pradesh assembly election enters its penultimate phase on March 3, the larger trend of a bipolar contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party and Samajwadi Party is likely to continue. A weakened Bahujan Samaj Party may retain a majority of its core support among the Dalit Jatav community, while some of the Congress candidates may also emerge as winners. Yet, the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party, which has stitched together a broad-based social coalition, has emerged as the primary challenger to the incumbent BJP.
The bipolarity has effectively divided a majority of the electorate into two camps – those who want to see Adityanath in the chief ministerial chair once again, and those who want him to show the door. A range of concerns like joblessness, stray cattle, price rise and corruption at the district centres dominated the electoral debate, even as the BJP attempted to pitch the polls as a battle between “parivarvad” (dynasty politics) and “rashtravad” (nationalism).
As the polls moved eastwards, the SP deftly managed to consolidate a large chunk of OBC communities and break its Yadav and Muslim-centric perception. The Wire reported on how by representing non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalit communities in many assembly constituencies, the SP-led alliance brought a number of other communities under its umbrella.
The impact of the strategy is most visible in the seats going to polls in the sixth phase. Many of these seats are in extremely backward regions of Purvanchal and are strongly divided along caste lines. By accommodating different OBC communities, the SP forced the BJP into a defensive playfield.
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In the last few elections, the BJP had employed a similar tactic. It had represented most of these non-dominant but numerically-influential OBC groups in great numbers, bringing a large chunk of them under the Hindutva fold. The SP struggled to come out of its family feud and Yadav and Muslim-centric image.
However, the SP changed tack in the 2022 polls. It moved tactically to rope in many of the non-Yadav leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya, Dharam Singh Saini or Dara Singh Chauhan – all from non-Yadav OBCs groups – in the run-up to the polls, forcing the the BJP to repeat most of its unpopular incumbent MLAs. By changing tack, the SP emerged as the biggest beneficiary of the prevailing anti-incumbency undercurrent and emerged as a viable alternative for a large group of voters.
As a result of such manoeuvres, the polls in the sixth and seventh phase have effectively transformed into a backward caste assertion against an “upper” caste dispensation led by Thakur leader Adityanath. The “upper” caste groups, in response, appeared to consolidate against such a subaltern grouping, with the support of a large number of small backward and Dalit communities, popularly known in the region as “pauni” caste groups, within the BJP fold. These smaller communities are mostly non-landed caste groups which have traditionally been the service providers to landed Brahmins, Thakurs and Bhumihars. Economically dependent on “upper” castes, they tend to ally themselves with “upper’ caste interests – both social and political.
Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav holds a gada during a rally for the ongoing Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, in Maharajganj district. Photo: PTI
In Purvanchal, however, the historical caste rivalries between Thakurs and Brahmins is pulling the BJP back in multiple seats, with the latter perceiving the Adityanath government as politically partisan. In comparison, the SP has performed better in consolidating the backward castes.
Against such a backdrop, the sixth phase was marked by high-pitched, bitter campaigning from both the BJP and SP.
Both the fronts heavily depend on smaller allies which add much value to them in the sixth and seventh phases. While BJP will expect that the Sanjay Nishad-led Nishad Party will corner most of the numerically-dominant boatmen community in the Gorakhpur region, the SP will hope that Swami Prasad Maurya’s hold over the influential Khushwaha community in many of these seats will give them an edge over the BJP.
The Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) led by Om Prakash Rajbhar, who has alleged that the BJP intends to dilute reservation in jobs and education for OBCs and Dalits and has been hitting hard at the BJP’s supposed “upper” caste predisposition, is also likely to add value to the SP-led umbrella. It is contesting in eight seats. However, its real test will be in the last phase of polls where Rajbhar community voters are much greater in numbers.
Fifty-seven seats, spread across 10 districts – Ambedkar Nagar, Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Kushinagar, Deoria and Ballia – will vote on Thursday.
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The most prominent candidate in the fray is incumbent chief minister Adityanath from Gorakhpur Urban. The saffron-robed leader is contesting his maiden assembly elections. He had been the Gorakhpur MP, and then a legislative council member as the chief minister in the last tenure. SP has fielded Shubhawati Shukla, wife of a late BJP leader Upendra Dutt Shukla, in an attempt to send a political message to the Brahmin community. The community had shown its resentment against Adityanath when he didn’t pay a visit to Upendra Dutt’s funeral.
Azad Samaj Party leader Chandrashekhar Azad is also challenging the chief minister from the seat.
Among the other significant candidates are SP’s Swami Prasad Maurya from Fazilnagar, state Congress chief Ajay Kumar Lallu from Tamhuhi Raj seat, and SP’s leader of opposition in the former assembly Ram Govind Chaudhary from Bansdih.
State ministers Surya Pratap Shahi, Satish Chandra Swiwedi, Jai Pratap Singh, Shree Ram Chauhan and Jai Prakash Nishad are also contesting from Pathardeva, Itwa, Bansi, Khajani and Rudrapur respectively.
The challenge for the opposition is high in the sixth phase as the BJP had won 46 out of the 57 seats in 2017 assembly polls. Nonetheless, the contest is much closer, with many observers expecting a much smaller margin of victories and losses than those in the last assembly polls, when a BJP wave had swept the state.
