Bhopal: The historic mandate for the BJP in the Madhya Pradesh assembly election hardly requires overanalysing. Succinctly, it is a comprehensive rejection of Kamal Nath’s leadership. The state Congress chief’s hubristic conduct of electioneering antagonised a large section of the electorate enough to forgive Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s omissions and commissions as chief minister.
His age was already an apparent disadvantage for the septuagenarian Congress warhorse; he exacerbated the disadvantage with a series of peremptory decisions that helped the BJP overcome initial nervousness and return to the fight with a bang.
To start with, he marginalised all other state leaders except Digvijaya Singh; his gratuitous decision to compete with the BJP on Hindutva was another strategic blunder; he contemptuously rejected offers of INDIA partners such as Samajwadi Party and Aam Adami Party (AAP) on seat adjustments and provided ammo to the BJP to deride the “Congress culture” of factionalism.
Arguably, his most self-destructive stance was to smugly repeat the refrain before the media that “it is the people, not the Congress that are fighting the election against the BJP’s misgovernance”. Whatever he meant by this, the voters interpreted the assessment as the Congress’s weakness in the face of the BJP’s aggressive campaign. Simply put, the Congress’s CM face offered victory on a platter to the BJP.
How Kamal Nath frittered away opportunity
Kamal Nath frittered away the opportunity to avenge the toppling of his 15-month-old government in March 2020 by the BJP in collusion with Congress rebel Jyotiraditya Scindia.
It was a widespread belief until three months ago that the Congress looked all set to return to power in Madhya Pradesh with a bigger mandate than in 2018. The party was euphoric over its spectacular victory in Karnataka. Taking a leaf out of the Karnataka book, it coined “50% commission ki sarkar” to emphasise corruption in the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government. The slogan resonated with the people. Also, a bouquet of freebies that helped the Congress win the southern state was promised for MP too.
All these decisions, taken in quick succession, had apparently unnerved the ruling party. The BJP central leadership betrayed its nervousness in the decision to take command of the campaign, denying Chouhan the role of the spearhead that he was allowed to play in the previous three assembly elections. The election was fought on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image. Chouhan’s photograph was among a group of ten state leaders beneath the prime minister’s much larger one in party hoardings and banners.
That was an opportune time for the Congress to capitalise on the confusion in the BJP over its chief ministerial face. But Kamal Nath’s insipid leadership was not up to the task.
Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Photo: Twitter/@ChouhanShivraj
Shivraj’s bounce-back
Soon enough, the BJP made a course correction and brought Chouhan to the centre stage of the campaign, short of declaring him the chief ministerial candidate. Charged with the restoration of his authority, Chouhan hit the campaign trail with renewed vigour. He covered 164 out of 230 constituencies. He regaled the audiences, particularly women, with his characteristic histrionics interspersed with emotional rhetoric. He was back in action with full force.
The chief minister’s bounce-back with panache in the poll arena should have alarmed Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh but their rather jaded speeches – in far fewer constituencies than Chouhan covered – ensured the gradual dwindling of the Congress’s prospects. While Chouhan was unstoppable, the Congress sorely lacked resources to match his drive.
The Congress mainly depended on rallies of its star campaigners such as Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra.
On the other hand, the BJP marshalled its resources – both monetary and human – to an unprecedented scale. While the chief minister crisscrossed the state, central leaders – including Prime Minister Modi – kept the tempo of the BJP campaign on a high pitch through their whirlwind tours in electorally strategic places.
Also Read: For BJP in Madhya Pradesh, a Leap in Seats, a Jump in Vote Share and a Reversal of 2018
Communication deficit
The Congress’s far fewer election rallies resulted in its promises reaching far fewer voters than the BJP. Kamal Nath addressed the most number of rallies from the Congress but his age circumscribed his outreach. Next to him was Digvijaya Singh but age took a toll on his schedule too. Although far more sprightly for his age than Kamal Nath, Digvijaya Singh couldn’t march the pace of much younger Chouhan.
Other Congress leaders were barely visible on the ground. It was no surprise then that the party failed to effectively communicate its promises and programmes to a large section of the voters, be it caste-based census, free education or subsidised gas cylinders. On the other hand, the Ladli Behna Yojana was immensely popular across the state, thanks to the chief minister’s tours.
If Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh had generously delegated responsibilities to the second and third line of leaders, the Congress would have fared much better.
Aged Jai-Veeru pair
AICC general secretary in charge of Madhya Pradesh Randeep Singh Surjewala had dubbed Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh as Jai and Veeru from the legendary Sholay (1975) film, presumably to emphasise their friendship in the run-up to the election.
But perhaps the electorate interpreted Surjewala’s statements as Nath and Singh’s age being closer to the present ages of Amitabh Bachchan and Dharmendra, who had essayed the memorable roles of the two small-time burglar-friends in the film.
Political analysts are attributing the BJP’s stunning victory in Madhya Pradesh to mainly two factor: Prime Minister Modi’s vigorous campaigning and chief minister Chouhan’s flagship Ladli Behna Yojana. The analysis is true but only partly so.
More crucial two factors that led to the Congress’s crushing defeat in the election were ideological overlapping on Hindutva and the party’s projection of its two-man gerontocracy – Kamal Nath (77) and Digvijaya Singh (76) – as the harbinger of change. Although he had ruled as chief minister for 18 years, Chouhan (64) still exuded youthfulness.
Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh tightly supervised and executed most election-related decisions in the state Congress, leaving little room for interference from the younger lot. Acutely conscious of the duo’s clout in the high command, all others fell in line with their diktats.
Congress leaders Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and Kamal Nath during a public meeting in Mandla, Madhya Pradesh on October 12, 2023. Photo: X(Twitter)/@priyankagandhi
Peremptory decision
Kamal Nath peremptorily picked up candidates, citing internal party surveys that no others – except possibly Singh – had any clue about. When seat distribution triggered revolts in a dozen constituencies, Nath yielded to change candidates in some places but not before kicking up an unsavoury controversy. His infamous “tear Digvijaya Singh’s clothes” jibe was provoked by a demonstration of the supporters of a candidate who was denied the ticket. The next day, Singh tauntingly responded to the jibe. The controversial banter in an open meeting between the two veterans gave ammo to the BJP to deride the kapda fad (tearing clothes) politics.
Kamal Nath contemptuously rejected proposals for seat adjustment with INDIA partners. His curt “Akhilesh-Vakhilesh” remark must still be ringing in the Samajwadi Party supremo’s ears. Earlier, the PCC chief had announced the cancellation of INDIA’s first public meeting that was scheduled to take place in Bhopal, in the presence of the party’s central observers.
Again, it was Kamal Nath who unilaterally decided to pit the Congress against the BJP in a competitive display of religiosity. Digvijaya Singh, whose antipathy to Hindutva is well known, grudgingly surrendered to the PCC chief’s ploy.
As the results show, all the strategies that Kamal Nath sounded so confident about ahead of the election miserably flopped. The BJP, which looked vulnerable on account of its 18-year rule, got its acts together with remarkable swiftness and scored a historic victory.
What is the road ahead?
The road ahead for Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh has virtually hit the cul-de-sac. While Kamal Nath can save face in his victory and the Congress’s sweep in all seven seats in Chhindwara, Digvijaya Singh was not that lucky. his brother Laxman Singh lost the election and son Jaivardhan Singh barely scraped through in the family’s traditional Raghogarh seat. Singh Senior’s Rajya Sabha term is due to expire in 2026 and by that time he will turn 79.
Now that the election is over, muted voices in the party are bound to find expression. Earlier, such voices had arisen in March 2020, when the veterans had failed to prevent the revolt by Scindia that toppled the Congress government. But the high command ignored the pleas for Kamal Nath’s resignation. Far from it, the Gandhis chose to give virtually untrammelled power to their family acolyte. The same blunder could be suicidal for any chance of revival in Madhya Pradesh. Five months from now, the Lok Sabha election is due and the Congress has another opportunity to take on the BJP.
This election has also taught a useful lesson to the Congress if it cares to learn: playing the Hindutva card on the BJP’s pitch is a recipe for disaster. Nath declared himself as a Hanuman-bhakt and courted controversial religious preachers such as Dhirendra Shastri and Pt Pradeep Mishra. Both openly advocate the establishment of Hindu Rashtra. Kamal Nath had no ideological qualms in organising their kathas in Chhindwara. Taking a cue from him, many other Congress candidates also invited Shastri and Mishra to conduct discourses in their respective constituencies. The end result of the dalliance with Hindutva politics proved deleterious for the Congress. It did not earn a victory for the Congress candidates but perhaps raised doubts among potential voters about its secular credentials.