The recently held by-elections in five assembly constituencies of Assam turned out to be a fiercely contested electoral battle, leading to significant political implications. Now, it’s difficult to predict the fate of Opposition unity in Assam, especially with the state assembly elections just a year and a half away.
Opposition unity disintegrated, and massive violence erupted in one constituency, which unexpectedly gave the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a historic chance to win in a Muslim-dominated constituency.
Interestingly, there are some positive takeaways for the Congress party as well. It can now eye a chance to win one of the BJP’s strongholds, which has been held by the party for over two decades. Additionally, the Congress has maintained its grip on another seat, which has been under the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) for four decades.
Two constituencies have been at the forefront in the recent elections in Assam — Samaguri, a long-time Congress stronghold, and Behali, a traditional BJP bastion. Samaguri witnessed unprecedented poll violence, resulting in the loss of one life. In contrast, Behali saw the Opposition unity fracture over candidate selection, leading to infighting between Congress and other factions. Initially, the BJP was optimistic, but as the contest heated up, they began to worry about a tough challenge from Congress.
Samaguri: Massive violence, polarisation and Congress’ mistake
The voters of Samaguri constituency have seen indefatigable Rakibul Hussain as their representative in the assembly perpetually for 23 years. After Hussain got elected to the Lok Sabha from Dhubri this year with a record margin of over 10 lakh votes, Samaguri headed for a by-election and Rakibul’s son Tanzil Hussain was nominated as the Congress party candidate here. He faces a formidable challenge from BJP’s Diplu Ranjan Sharma.
BJP’s Samaguri Lok Sabha candidate Diplu Ranjan Sharma’s campaign booth. Photo: Sandipan Talukdar
Samaguri constituency is heavily reliant on Muslim votes, given the community’s significant presence in the area. Historically, Congress has benefited from a strong vote base in this constituency. However, whether this support will endure in favour of Congress in the current by-election remains uncertain, considering various factors that may have antagonised the Congress on the ground.
Before discussing those, we need to ponder on a more serious issue — massive violence that rocked Samaguri throughout the campaign period till the day of polling. The BJP and the Congress indulged in allegations and counter-allegations blaming each other for initiating the violence.
Barhampur BJP MLA Jitu Goswami’s car was allegedly fired at, while Congress leaders’ homes were reportedly gheraoed and vandalised by BJP workers. Congress workers also faced gunshots on few occasions. One BJP worker died in one of the episodes of violence there. Considering the scale of violence in Samaguri, an impartial investigation is required to unveil who were involved and to what extent and how it all started. But it is apparent that both the parties were entangled in the process. The question is who will ultimately benefit from this violence. This is one of the several other factors that may impact the poll outcome.
Samaguri is polarised this time but with quite a different tinge. Though a Muslim majority constituency, winning Samaguri needs support from Hindus as well. Rakibul Hussain had been maintaining a delicate balance of support here, but this time, it appears that Hindu voters have coalesced behind the BJP.
The villages on the right-hand side of national highway 127 (while going from Guwahati) in the Samaguri constituency are mainly Hindu dominated comprising tribals like Karbi, Rabha, Bodo and non-tribal Assamese and tea tribes and Bengali and Hindi speakers, while those on the left-hand side are mainly Muslim villages.
Travelling through a few of the Hindu dominated villages one could see the atmosphere filled with astounding support for the BJP. At the Udmari tea garden, women workers told The Wire that the garden is “now managed by Jitu Goswami,” the BJP MLA from nearing Barhampur constituency. Goswami was seen actively campaigning for the BJP candidate Diplu in the region.
A woman worker plucking tea leaves in Udmari Tea Garden, Samaguri, Assam. Photo: Sandipan Talukdar
“It is Jitu Goswami who appeared as a saviour for us as the Udmari garden went kaput and we struggled for our wages. He saved us from hunger. At least we get some wages now, albeit insufficient,” one woman worker told The Wire. This statement indicated that besides this tea garden even few surrounding tea tribes’ villages were unitedly supporting the BJP.
While conversing with voters from tribal communities like Karbis, Bodos and Rabhas their tilt towards the BJP was very evident. Even the Hindu Assamese are supporting Diplu this time which will dent the Congress’ prospects.
Delimitation turned out to be troublesome for the Congress party; some parts of Samaguri are included in Barhampur and other parts in Kaliabor constituency post delimitation. However, people wanted to remain in Samaguri and expected Rakibul to do something about the issue. The delimitation in Assam was done in 2023 and the by-election this time was conducted as the constituencies were in 2021, when the last assembly elections were held.
“Hussain on the other hand made his route to Delhi by winning from Dhubri. This left people offended, especially the Assamese voters. They are voting in Samaguri constituency this time. The by-election is held in the constituencies as they were before delimitation. A major chunk of these voters had been supporting Rakibul for long time, but this election they are likely to vote against his son,” a senior journalist from Nagaon told The Wire under the condition of anonymity.
Notably, even the local Congress leaders and workers weren’t happy with the party’s candidate selection. Dissatisfaction lead to a few minority leaders even leaving the Congress party and joining the BJP or the AGP.
“We addressed Rakibul’s father as ‘Sir’ when he was Samaguri MLA, then addressed Rakibul as the same and [now] we will have to address his son as ‘Sir’ again. This should not have happened. There were other able local leaders who could have got the ticket, why only Tanzil? Only because he is Rakibul’s son?”remarked a former local Congress leader with anguish, who is supporting BJP this time.
Farid Ahmed was the head of Congress social media cell in Nagaon. He was quite close to Rakibul for a long period of his political journey. In April this year, he resigned from the Congress party and joined the BJP.
“Rakibul sir is concerned about himself only. Many of us are dissatisfied with his attitude and especially when we became sure that Samaguri will be given to his son Tanzil,” Farid told The Wire, adding, “This time the BJP will get [more] Muslim votes than it has ever got [before]”.
Interestingly, the BJP’s ally AGP has a support base in some Muslim areas. AGP’s Atul Sharma won here in 1996. In recent times, local Congress workers and leaders have joined the AGP. For instance, Fakaruddin was a former district secretary of Youth Congress, who joined the AGP in 2022. He was one of the important Congress worker on ground and was Rakibul’s close associate.
“Rakibul has dissatisfied people like us who had been with him and Congress for decades,” Fakaruddin said.
Fakaruddin claimed that the Congress party will witness a divide in its support base this time in the Singimari area as Muslims are backing the BJP-AGP alliance candidate. Notably, this area is close to Laokhowa Burhasapori where massive evictions were carried by the BJP state government. Fakaruddin as the AGP mandal secretary of Laokhowa believes that despite those evictions some voters will chose the ruling alliance’s candidate.
“Evictions were done as those were illegal encroachment into protected forest areas. But the BJP government has promised to give rehabilitation,” said one local.
The BJP district leaders believe that they will be able to pull around 20,000 Muslim votes this time. If that happens then the Congress will have to face defeat as the results will be announced on Saturday. Understandably, only on the counting day it will be clear whether the Congress could retain its stronghold or the BJP could mark a prominent dent to win the seat.
One local resident in Sonaribali told The Wire, “Even if there are dissatisfactions and clashes within the Muslims because they are divided into two parties, finally Muslims will vote for Congress,” indicating that it is a fight based on sentiment.
Behali: Congress Stands Firm in the BJP Bastion despite monumental conflict within the Opposition alliance
The ASOM (Assam Sanmilita Morcha), the opposition unity front in Assam modeled after the INDIA bloc, fractured due to a controversy surrounding the candidature in Behali. The issue remained unresolved and both the Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist Leninist) [CP(ML)] find each other in the race.
Initially, when incumbent BJP MLA for over a decade Raniit Dutta won the Lok Sabha seat, CPI (ML) began its exercise hoping to get the candidature. As Bibek Das told The Wire, Congress state president Bhupen Borah showed interest in giving the ticket to him in the beginning.
“We began our preparations with the hope that BJP’s bastion will be won over this time seeing the anti-incumbency on the ground,” Das said. At the same time, Jorhat MP Gaurav Gogoi was seen being active strengthening the party organisation in Behali.
During the last meeting in the presence of Jitender Singh, the All India Congress Committee (AlCC) in charge of Assam, a conflict emerged and a five-member committee was set up. The Congress leadership said whatever the committee recommends will be the final decision.
The committee comprised of Lurin Gogoi (secretary of ASOM), Akbil Goggi (Raüjor Dal), Suprakash Talukdar [CPI (M)], Ajit Bhuyan (Rajya Sabha MP) and Jones Ingti Kathar (All Party Hills Leaders Conference) and they recommended Das as the joint Opposition candidate.
“Despite their commitment, Congress did not announce the candidate for two days after the committee recommendation came out. In the meantime, many Congress leaders got involved in pitifully slamming me. After two days I got a call at midnight with the proposal that Congress will give the ticket to CPI(ML) if the candidate is changed. Our party agreed and Lakhikanta Kurmi was named as the candidate,” Bibek Das told The Wire.
However, that did not seem to quell the conflict and Congress declared its own candidate Jayanta Borah. He fought from Behali in 2021 as an independent candidate securing the second position while Das as the joint Opposition candidate was third. Jayanta Borah is a BJP turncoat and his membership was handed over after naming him as the Congress candidate.
Assam Congress chief Bhupen Borah resigned as the ASOM president and later Ajit Bhuyan was chosen to take over with Luriniyoti Gogoi remaining as the secretary. Practically, ASOM comprises of the Left and regional parties minus the Congress as of now. It is hard to anticipate the fate of the joint Opposition forum ahead of the 2026 assembly election.
CPI(ML) rally at Borgang, Behali. Photo: Sandipan Talukdar
Despite everything, Congress appears as a tough contender for the BJP. However, for winning Behali, Congress would need a combination of factors in its favour in the demographically mixed constituency. Tea gardens constitute the largest chunk of Behali’s voters followed by Nepalis, Assamese, minorities, tribals, Bengalis and Hindi-speaking population. Congress has to consolidate the Assamese voters, the minority voters, ensure Nepali votes as much as it can and most significantly create a dent in the solid vote base of BJP in the tea gardens.
The ground visits to different parts of Behali gave an impression that the Assamese voters are tilting towards Jayant Borah, while the Bengalis and the Hindi speakers appeared to be supporting the BJP. A section of Nepali voters, who previously supported the BJP have likely lent their support to the Congress party this time thus marking a dent in the BJP’s solid base.
This perhaps accounts for chief minister Himanta Biswas Sarma’s announcement to install a statue of Chabilal Upaddhyaya, the Gorkha freedom fighter in Guwahati along with a bagful of promises for Behali in his meeting there. Upaddhyaya, a prominent name in Assam hailed from Behali and was the first selected president of Assam Congress.
For the dire situation of their daily lives, a section of tea garden voters may have a changed their opinion this time, but it is hard to quantify what fraction of them will cuddle the idea of change. As one of the tea workers present at a Congress meeting in Rotuwa on November 10 told The Wire, “We supported [the] BJP and Ranjit Dutta for years but our conditions remain same pathetic. We struggle to run our houses with prices of essential commodities skyrocketing while our wages consistently remain low.”
Notably, the AASAA (All Adivasi Students’ Association of Assam) has openly declared their support to Congress in Behali. But the larger body representing the tea tribes ATTSA (Assam Tea Tribes Student Association) covertly is in support of the BJP.
Congress alleges BIP MLA threatened Muslims in Behali
Congress leader and senior spokesperson Imdad Hussain told The Wire that Sootea BJP MLA Padma Hazarika threatened the Muslims on multiple occasions.
“This is an intimidation tactics of [the] BJP. It thinks that if they can bar the Muslim voters from voting [for the] Congress or make them abstain from the exercise, it will hamper [the] Congress. This practice is pernicious for democracy. However, the righteous voters will support us,” Husain said.
In Behali, Muslims were allegedly intimidated with threats of eviction if they voted against the BJP. This may have impacted the voter turnout on poling day.
The by-election results will set up a political discourse for the ensuing assembly elections in Assam. If Congress manages to win Behali it will reinvigorate the party in upper Assam’s northern bank while ascending Gogoi’s stature in the state politics.
It’s worth noting that after the Opposition unity fell apart, the blame game centered around Gogoi, as Jayanta Borah was his preferred candidate, and he spearheaded the campaign in Behali. On the other hand, if the BJP wins Samaguri then Rakibul’s decade-long dominance will be challenged. This will also create a dent among the Congress workers and local leaders in Samaguri.
In the other constituencies in Assam — Bongaigaon, Sidli and Dhalai — the BJP and its allies have an upper hand. However, the Congress party may perform better in Bongaigaon where Phanibhushan Choudhury’s wife got the ticket from the AGP, which led to conflict among the AGP workers. Phanibhushan had been the MLA from there for four decades and until he won the Barpeta Lok Sabha seat this year. Had the Congress focused in Bongaigaon with the same intensity as it did in Behali, the scenario may have been different.
Sandipan Talukdar is a Guwahati-based independent journalist.