As early leads turned into a second resounding victory for AAP in the national capital, it became clear that the demise of Sheila Dikshit had caused more damage to the BJP than to her own party, the now decimated Congress. If only she were around to mount a campaign, the Congress might have been able to rake in a respectable vote share, thereby benefiting the BJP.
What happened instead was a complete annihilation of the saffron party. A lot is being said and will be said about the reasons behind this victory. The AAP is definitely worthy of all the appreciation directed towards it. However, with a little over 7 years of political experience under its belt, it is time that we assess what Arvind Kejriwal and his party’s plans for the near future are.
While novel policies related to issues such as education and healthcare are being hailed as the primary reasons behind the AAP’s massive victory, one should recall that the party’s roots lie in an ambush campaign against UPA-II. Against the backdrop of the CAG’s damning report regarding 2G allocation under UPA-I, the India Against Corruption (IAC) campaign, of which Arvind Kejriwal and his team were at the front, brought the UPA-II down to its knees.
Only two years after an impressive performance in the 2009 general elections, Manmohan Singh’s government had lost the battle of perception. The fact that it was pitted against civil society and not just another political party only worsened the situation. What followed was a prolonged phase of policy paralysis, with weary bureaucrats and ministers unwilling to take decisions. Exacerbated by some poor economic policymaking and other self-goals, this paralysis was perceived to be the primary reason behind the ensuing economic slowdown. It was this very despair and frustration that allowed Narendra Modi to sell the Gujarat model of development and storm into power at the Centre.
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Two national elections later, Prime Minister Modi’s record on governance is a mixed bag. However, it is clear that his government’s position on critical issues such as the nation’s plurality and respect for democratic institutions completely contradicts the spirit of the popular anti-corruption movement, which laid the foundations of his entry into national politics.
At the same time, even eight years after the IAC movement, the Congress, despite victories across a few states, does not seem to have recovered. Its serious lack of credibility – a combined result of the early wounds inflicted by the IAC campaign, innumerable self-goals and persistent attacks by a merciless BJP – is one of the primary reasons behind the rise of the ruthless Modi-Shah duo. To be fair, one can argue that on a number of issues for which it was blamed, the Congress technically stands vindicated.
The suspected lynchpins behind the 2G case were acquitted by a CBI court in 2017 and despite all his threats, Kejriwal did not have adequate evidence to prove anything against Sheila Dikshit. The perception battle, however, is still lost. Worryingly though, the very fabric of India’s liberal democracy is being strained through frequent assaults in the form of laws and policies and it is no longer a viable option to wait for the Congress to get its act together anytime soon.
Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal addresses supporters after party’s victory in the state assembly polls. Photo: PTI/Ravi Choudhary
It is therefore incumbent upon Kejriwal and AAP to undertake all possible efforts to provide the country with a national alternative. Having discredited the party that otherwise would have been the principal opposition to the BJP at the Centre, Kejriwal and his team should now chin up and prepare for a larger role in national politics.
The party’s poor performance in the 2014 national elections and subsequent unsuccessful forays into states like Goa, Rajasthan and Punjab – where they conceded self-goals – did not bring much success. So, the party would be forgiven for being sceptical of a reentry. It is also true that the battle for Delhi was unlike that of any other state. Larger states with diverse issues and more entrenched identity politics will require different kinds of political strategies. In addition, national success requires delegation and decentralisation, and AAP’s past record does not inspire too much confidence on these fronts.
Also read: AAP: Soft Hindutva or a Bulwark Without Illusions?
It is, however, time that AAP gets its act together. With a popular Hindi-speaking leader who understands modern-day politics, an enthusiastic party structure that is not yet associated with nepotism or corruption and the perception of being efficient administrators (much like Modi), the party has some of the key ingredients needed to challenge the BJP.
What it lacks, among other things, are resources and a wider party infrastructure. A project on this scale could take years, if not decades and AAP needs to start working on it right away. In this regard, reports that the party is planning to contest local body elections across the country indicate it realises the need to expand. This will allow them to sell their model of efficient provision of public goods at the micro-level, which might then pave the way for success in bigger electoral battles.
If these challenges are met, then the party could emerge as a credible national alternative in the current political scenario.
Kartikeya Batra is pursuing his PhD in Economics at the University of Maryland, College Park. Previously, as part of Harvard Kennedy School and IFMR’s EPoD India program, he worked in the domain of rural economics across several states in India.