Rahul Gandhi won a battle on August 4. His political status, that of a Member of Parliament able to contest elections at any level, had been taken away earlier this year when he was convicted of defaming the Modi surname. From the conviction to the punishment to disqualification, politics was writ large.
He mounted a vicious attack on PM Modi in the Lok Sabha on February 13. The BJP had already weaponised his comment during the 2019 general election about “all thieves carrying the Modi surname” by making Purnesh Modi, a BJP MLA in Gujarat, file a criminal defamation suit. The case opened in a Surat court on March 23. Rahul Gandhi was awarded the maximum sentence – two years in prison and disqualification from contesting any polls for five years.
Moving instantly, the Lok Sabha Secretariat disqualified him on March 24. The 134-day politico-juridical offensive against him drew to a close on August 4 when the Supreme Court stayed his conviction. On August 7, he was back in the Lok Sabha.
But Gandhi faces a much bigger war that would either establish him as a prime contender against the formidable Narendra Modi, or reduce him to an also-ran. Aside from building his own party, which at the moment lies in tatters, stitching together an Opposition alliance before the 2024 general elections could be his crowning glory. How capable is he of leading in the war ahead?
In 2004, Amethi, his family borough, returned him to the Lok Sabha. A weak Congress party returned to power in New Delhi for the first time since 1996, leading the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) with 145 seats. The UPA ran the government for a decade. Since then, Rahul Gandhi has been chair of the National Students’ Union of India (2007), chair of the Indian Youth Congress (2007), general secretary (2007-13), vice president (2013-17) and president (2017-19) of his party. He was invited by Manmohan Singh to join his cabinet in 2009, and the request was repeated in 2012. Not only did Rahul Gandhi not accept, his contribution to building his party during the decade when it held the reins of power, and when he was in various positions in the party, is negligible. In September 2013, he publicly insulted prime minister Manmohan Singh by tearing up an ordinance and calling it nonsense. His action damaged the reputation of the government and the party.
The party has also been in ideological drift since the second reign of Indira Gandhi (1980-84), which was heightened when Rajiv Gandhi helmed the party and the government. PV Narasimha Rao and Sitaram Kesri did not contribute to party-building. Sonia Gandhi understood the emerging coalition era and led the UPA to two terms, but could not build the party.
Rahul Gandhi did not appear to be competent to inject ideology and a sense of purpose into the drifting party during his two-year presidency. Taking the blame for the 2019 defeat, he resigned the presidency. In the 19th general election in 2019, he lost Amethi but won from Wayanad in Kerala.
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After nearly two decades in the Lok Sabha, he is not known for any meaningful, let alone brilliant, debate or intervention. He has been critical of the BJP and the PM in his speeches in the Lok Sabha from time to time, but his oratory did not ever appear to be giving an alternative view or a vision regarding policies or the country.
Secularism is a major victim of the right tilt of Indian politics since 2014. Rahul Gandhi has been unclear on this issue. His soft Hindutva path has not yielded much, either for him or the party.
The Bharat Jodo Yatra remains his major political project. It improved his image and took him to the masses along the route. His smiling demeanour, simple clothing and accessibility despite the security cordon brought him goodwill along the route. It contributed to his party’s victory in Karnataka. But the state is among the few where the party remains organisationally cohesive, with a local leadership. The yatra has not seen any follow-up party building activity.
Rahul Gandhi’s speech in the Lok Sabha that provoked the ruling party and hastened action in the case about the comment on Modis, was critical of Narendra Modi, but bland about his yatra experience and any alternative vision, either of himself or his party.
Rahul Gandhi’s current political project is to bring the Opposition parties together for the 2024 general elections. He has done well to downplay both himself and his party to allay the fears of 25 other parties that joined INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). The imaginative name is said to be his contribution. Its acceptance by the alliance raises his stature.
This is, however, only the beginning. Would Rahul Gandhi be able to help the alliance construct a more inclusive ideological platform on a range of issues that have been deconstructed by the Modi regime in the past nine years? The programme and the manifesto would have to be substantively appealing to voters. The institutional and organisational issues relating to poll management across the country would need to be strengthened in the next nine months.
While his party and the Opposition camp rejoices, we wait and watch.
Ajay K. Mehra is a political scientist. He was Atal Bihari Vajpayee Senior Fellow, Nehru Memorial Museum and Library, New Delhi, 2019-21 and Principal, Shaheed Bhagat Singh Evening College, Delhi University.
This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.