A quarter century ago, the Union of concerned scientists and more than 1700 independent scientists, including the majority of living Nobel Laureates in science, penned the 1992 World Scientists Warning to Humanity”. Unfortunately, the ruling elites and the media never paid heed to their words. To mark the letter’s 25th anniversary, scientists have issued a World Scientists Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice in 2017. The Alliance of World Scientists, with more than 15000 researchers from 184 countries issued a communique in the journal of Bioscience on November 2017. This time, the anthropogenic factor behind the climate crisis has been well established. In this paper, they present a suite of graphical vital signs of climate change over the last 40 years. Results show that, we are largely failing to address this predicament.
Subsequently, scientific communities in different countries have published similar reports. The recent report released by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES-GoI), ‘Assessment of Climate Change Over Indian Region’ provides several serious warnings to the country. The executive summary of the 242 page report says; “India’s average temperature has risen by around 0.7°C during 1901–2018. This rise in temperature is largely on account of GHG-induced warming, partially offset by forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols and changes in land use and land cover. By the end of the twenty-first century, the average temperature over India is projected to rise by approximately 4.4°C relative to the recent past (1976–2005 average), under the RCP8.5 scenario” (p-xiii-xiv). We have witnessed extreme weather events like, torrential rain, floods, cyclones, heat waves and severe droughts during the first two decades of the century. Here we should have foreseen a looming double ‘disruption scenario’, which creates new challenges for our power generation system. Are our governments ready to combat the impending climate challenges? Here I am raising some serious safety issues related to India’s power generation systems. Before going into the details, I would like to give a brief overview of electricity generation in India.
Electricity: Doubling Demands
As on 30.04.2021, the country’s total installed capacity is 382 GW, in which the biggest contributor is thermal plants (61.3%). Hydro power is 12.2%, nuclear and renewable energy sources are 1.8% & 24.8% respectively. India’s coal based generation capacity is about 206GW and over 60 GW in the pipeline, of which about 35 GW are under construction and over 25 GW at various stages of obtaining permission. As per India Energy Security Scenarios (IESS) 2047, prepared by Niti Aaayog, our country’s power demand is expected to rise about 3 times by 2040. The Ministry of Power has decided to rely on coal-fired power plants to meet this demand. The Draft National Electricity Policy 2021, (section 5.2.12) undoubtedly states that, “coal would necessarily continue to remain the primary fuel for meeting future energy demand”(https://powermin.gov.in/en/content/national-electricity-policy). The national policy calls for the establishment of new coal-fired power plants along the coast.
Coal Conundrum
There are about 281 coal based power plants currently operating in India. Coal power plants requires lot of water at various stages from coal production to power generation. The World Resource Institute’s (WRI) research finds that 40 percent of the country’s thermal power plants are located in areas facing high water stress, a problem since these plants use water for cooling. The report says, “scarce water is already hampering electricity generation in these regions—14 of India’s 20 largest thermal utilities, experienced at least one shutdown due to water shortages between 2013-2016, costing the companies $1.4 billion’’. As WRI reports point out, “it’s an issue that’s only poised to worsen unless the country takes action—70 percent of India’s thermal power plants will face high water stress by 2030 thanks to climate change and increased demands from other sectors”.
While these power plants fail to disclose how much water they’re using in their operations, WRI developed a new methodology using satellite images and other data to calculate their water use. Much of the water withdrawn by plants is returned to the lakes and ponds from which it came, but a lot is also consumed, and not returned to its original source. In fact, almost 90 percent of India’s thermal power generation depends on freshwater for cooling, and the industry is only growing thirstier. Freshwater consumption of Indian thermal utilities grew by 43 percent from 2011-2016, from 1.5 to 2.1 billion cubic meters a year. To put this in perspective, India’s total domestic water consumption in 2010 was about 7.5 billion cubic meters, according to the Aqueduct Global Water Risk Atlas. That means power plants drank about 20 percent as much water as India’s 1.3 billion citizens use for washing dishes, bathing, drinking and more.
Unclear Nuclear Safety
Although the contribution of nuclear power is negligible, India’s energy outlook 2021 is increasingly reliant on nuclear technology. Considering the demand projections for the year 2026-27, as per the 19th Electric Power Survey, committed capacity addition of Nuclear is around 6,800 MW. This means that there will be a huge increase in the number of nuclear power plants in the near future.
It is undisputed that nuclear power is one of the most water guzzling technology; and it needs billions of liters of fresh water per day for cooling and spent fuel storage. The Nuclear Energy Institute estimates that, per megawatt-hour, a nuclear power reactor consumes between 1,514 and 2,725 liters of water. This is compared to coal with figures of 1,220 to 2,270 liters per MWh, and 700 to 1,200 liters per MWh for gas. It’s clear to see, just from these brief statistics, that the nuclear energy industry relies much more heavily on water than other sectors. A large nuclear power plant may use up to 1 billion gallons (1 Gallon =3.785 liters) of water a day and, for this reason, they are often built next to rivers, lakes or oceans to utilise the bodies of water.
Water: The party’s over
India is home to 17% of the global population. At the same time, India accounts for only 4% of global water resources (FAO, Aquastat, Online Data, 2011). Our developmental history shows that India has become a water-scarce country, driven by economists who have no preliminary understanding that economic growth must begin with the protection of natural resources. The Composite Water Management Index (CWMI) 2019, compiled by Niti Aayog, indicates that by 2030 the gap between the country’s per capita water supply (765km3) and demand (1498km3) will almost double. In her 2020 budget presentation, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that 100 out of the 739 districts in India (13.5%) are suffering from severe water shortages. The reality is that over 66 crore people in India have no access to safe drinking water. It is worrying that the country’s ground water depletion rate has increased by 23% between 2000 and 2010, and this trend is on the rise.
Eminent climatologist Dr. Chirag Dhara points to emerging water scarcity in relation to climate change; “thermal power plants require substantial amounts of water for cooling to generate electricity. Power plants sited inland draw fresh water largely from dam reservoirs, rivers and canals. A rise in water withdrawal by power plants would directly compete with water withdrawal for agriculture and domestic consumption, particularly in water stressed areas”. He also warns us, “power plants sited around the coast that use sea water for cooling are vulnerable to damage from sea-level rise, cyclones, and storm surge. In short, climate change could impact the reliability of the country’s energy infrastructure and supply” (C.Dhara et al, 2020).
There are practical and financial implications of power plants’ thirst. Between 2013 and 2016, India’s thermal plants failed to meet their daily electricity generation target 61 percent of the time due to forced power plant outages. The reasons ranged from equipment failure to fuel shortages. Water shortages were the fifth-largest reason for all forced outages—the largest environmental reason.
In 2016 alone, water shortages cost India about 14 terawatt-hours of potential thermal power generation, canceling out more than 20 percent of the growth in the country’s total electricity generation from 2015.
Conclusion
The facts are clear and simple. It is undisputed that the impending climate crisis is going to be a double whammy on the country. Just as it will plunge millions of people into misery, it will also destabilize the economic system. Excessive reliance on fossil fuels such as coal for power generation will not only accelerate the climate crisis, but will also lead to runaway climate change effects. Now we realize that extreme weather events such as droughts and severe heat waves can pose a threat to the country’s water security. Nonetheless, it is unfortunate our planners are losing sight of the fact that the use of water-intensive technologies such as coal-fired power plants to meet the energy needs will have adverse impacts, both in terms of water and energy security. It is high time to restructure our power generation systems to combat the impending climate catastrophe.
K. Sahadevan is an environmentalist from Kerala. He has been writing on Energy, Economics and Environment for the last few decades. He has authored half a dozen books on different topics and a regular contributor to various journals and newspapers.