Washington: Democrats rode a wave of dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump to win control of the US House of Representatives on Tuesday, giving them the opportunity to block Trump’s agenda and open his administration to intense scrutiny.
In midterm elections two years after he won the White House, Trump and his fellow Republicans expanded their majority in the US Senate following a divisive campaign marked by fierce clashes over race, immigration and other cultural issues.
But Tuesday’s results were a bitter outcome for Trump after a campaign that became a referendum on his leadership.
NBC News projected Democrats would hold a 229-206 House majority, taking over control from the Republicans for the first time in eight years. Other media outlets also projected that the Democrats would pick up at least the 23 Republican-held seats they needed to win to gain a majority.
With a House majority, Democrats will have the power to investigate Trump’s tax returns, possible business conflicts of interest and allegations involving his 2016 campaign’s links to Russia.
They also could force Trump to scale back his legislative ambitions, possibly dooming his promises to fund a border wall with Mexico, pass a second major tax-cut package or carry out his hardline policies on trade.
A simple House majority would be enough to impeach Trump if evidence surfaces that he obstructed justice or that his 2016 campaign colluded with Russia. But Congress could not remove him from office without a conviction by a two-thirds majority in the Republican-controlled Senate.
Voters wait to cast their midterm election ballots at the Cross Cultural Center in Irvine, California, US November 6, 2018. Credit: Reuters/Kyle Grillot
Democrats in the House could be banking on launching an investigation using the results of U.S. Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s already 18-month-old probe of allegations of Russian interference on Trump’s behalf in the 2016 presidential election. Moscow denies meddling and Trump denies any collusion.
“Thanks to you, tomorrow will be a new day in America,” Democratic House leader Nancy Pelosi told cheering Democrats at a Washington victory party, saying House Democrats would be a check on Trump.
“The American people want peace, they want results,” Pelosi added.
Despite his party losing the House, Trump wrote on Twitter, “Tremendous success tonight.”
Trump – a 72-year-old former reality TV star and businessman-turned-politician – hardened his rhetoric down the stretch on issues that appealed to his conservative core supporters, issuing warnings about a caravan of Latin American migrants headed to the border with Mexico and condemnations of liberal American “mobs.”
Most Democratic candidates in tight races stayed away from harsh criticism of Trump during the campaign’s final stretch, focusing instead on bread-and-butter issues like maintaining insurance protections for people with pre-existing medical conditions and safeguarding the Social Security retirement and Medicare healthcare programs for senior citizens.
Democrats also captured governorships in Michigan, Illinois and Kansas. In Kansas, Republican Kris Kobach, a Trump ally who was a leader of the president’s disbanded voter fraud commission, fell to Democratic state senator Laura Kelly.
Democrats turned out in droves
Democrats turned out in droves to register disapproval of Trump’s divisive rhetoric and policies on such issues as immigration and his travel ban targeting several Muslim-majority countries.
A record number of women ran for office this election, many of them Democrats turned off by Trump’s policy agenda.
The election results mean Democrats will resume House control in January for the first time since the 2010 election, beginning a split-power arrangement with the Republican-led Senate that may force Trump to scale back his legislative ambitions and focus on issues with bipartisan support, such as an infrastructure improvement package or protections against prescription drug price increases.
It also will test Trump’s ability to compromise, something he has shown little interest in over the last two years with Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress.
The loss of power will test Trump’s political hold on House Republicans, most of whom had pledged their support for him lest they face the wrath of the party’s core supporters, who remain in his corner.
The final weeks before the election were marked by the mailing of pipe bombs to his top political rivals, with a political fan of Trump arrested and charged, and the mass shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue in which 11 people died, sparking a debate about Trump’s biting rhetoric and whether it encouraged extremists.
In the House, Democrats picked up seats across the map, ousting incumbent Republican Barbara Comstock in suburban Virginia and sending Donna Shalala, a former Cabinet secretary under President Bill Clinton, to the House in south Florida.
In the Senate, where Democrats were defending seats in 10 states that Trump won, Republicans ousted three Democratic incumbents.
Republican Mike Braun captured incumbent Joe Donnelly’s seat in Indiana, Republican Kevin Cramer beat incumbent Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and Republican Josh Hawley defeated Democrat Claire McCaskill in Missouri.
Some of the biggest Democratic stars of the campaign lost. Liberal House member Beto O’Rourke became a national sensation with his underdog US Senate campaign but fell short in conservative Texas to Senator Ted Cruz, and Andrew Gillum lost to Republican Ron DeSantis in his quest to become the first African-American governor of the key swing state of Florida.
A supporter of Democratic US Senate candidate Rep. Beto O’Rourke holds a portrait of the congressman as he awaits O’Rourke’s arrival at his midterm election night party in El Paso, Texas, US, November 6, 2018. Credit: Reuters/Mike Segar
Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Manchin won a hotly contested race in conservative West Virginia, and conservative Marsha Blackburn held a Senate seat for Republicans.
Senators Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a 2016 Democratic presidential contender, and Tim Kaine of Virginia, Hillary Clinton’s vice presidential nominee in 2016, easily won re-election. Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown held his seat in Ohio.
All 435 seats in the House, 35 seats in the 100-member Senate and 36 of the 50 state governorships were up for grabs.
Investors often favour Washington gridlock because it preserves the status quo and reduces uncertainty, even though many investors this time around had been hoping for a continuation of the Republican agenda.
A Reuters analysis of the past half century showed stocks fared better in the two calendar years after congressional elections when Republicans control Congress and the presidency than when Democrats controlled the two branches, and at least as well as during times of gridlock.
“I think everyone was bracing for any possible, crazy scenario to show itself tonight but it basically looks like the baseline consensus forecast was correct,” said Michael Purves, Head Of Equity Derivatives Strategy At Weeden & Co, New York. “If the futures are up now and they stay up it’s because there is an uncertainty factor that is now out of the market.”
Commentary
David Gergen, advisor to four former US presidents:
As victory celebrations fade and Democratic presidential hopefuls begin their campaigns on Wednesday, the party must rapidly figure out its ideological identity for 2020, said Gergen, who is now a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.
“Even though they won back the House, they’re going to have to decide whether they ought to advance as a more Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders type of party with more liberal positions, or as a more center-left party,” Gergen said. “Many of their victories in the House went to candidates who were more center-left, not left-left.”
Republican media strategist Joe Brettell:
“These results give each party a chance to find common ground, whether it be on infrastructure or finding some equitable, workable solution to healthcare. The reality is that both parties have specialised in fielding candidates who are excellent at spouting talking points on cable news but terrible at building policy solutions.”
“The House GOP staked their majority on the popularity of the tax bill. That was clearly unsuccessful. If the Democrats want to keep or increase their majority in 2020, they’re going to have to learn to govern, and that’s escaped the Republicans during the past two years.”
Iowa State University political scientists David Andersen:
“The big picture so far seems to be that the mystical blue wave that people were looking for didn’t materialise tonight,” he said.
The magnitude of the Democrats’ gains in recapturing a majority in the House of Representatives is “not a miraculous achievement,” he added. “I don’t think anyone’s going to be stunned tomorrow. I think it’s very much in line with expectations.”
Mark Gearan, White House Communications Director under President Bill Clinton
The Republican takeover of both houses of Congress in the 1994 election, two years after Bill Clinton’s first presidential victory, slowed the Democratic president’s legislative agenda. Gearan said.
“There will be, I imagine, great introspection within the Trump White House,” said Gearan, who is now the director of the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics. “The White House has to appreciate how the White House’s legislative agenda will be negatively affected when you don’t have majority of one of the chambers.”
Democratic strategist Jim Manley:
“It’s pretty evident that President Trump is politically toxic in many of these suburban districts across the country. He played to his base, but his over-the-top rhetoric turned off so many people that Democrats managed to retake the House.
“I’m convinced he has no idea what’s about to happen: The fact that the House now has wide-ranging authority to investigate every inch of his administration. He’ll deny six ways to Sunday that anything’s going to change, but the reality is that his world’s turned upside down as of this evening.
“I question whether his takeaway from this election is going to be that he needs to figure out how to compromise with Democrats to put points on the board. Hope springs eternal, but I assume he’s going to try to advance a radical agenda that goes nowhere fast.”
Jason Mcgrath, Democratic Pollster in Chicago
“A Democratic House means that if the president want to get things done, he’s going to have to work across the aisle. He hasn’t shown any inclination to do that, but it will be interesting to see if this is a moment he will want to govern rather than just make points.”
Ian Russell, former political director at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
The Democrats are likely to have a thin majority in the House, which means any legislation would require broader compromise, empowering moderates from both parties, Russell said. “When you get small majority, you have the chance for a small number of people in the middle to really help shape things,” he said.
Republican strategist Douglas Heye
“The way business has been done in Washington for the past two years is going to change immediately. We are going to see a Democratic majority (in the House) that is going to do everything it can to hold the Trump administration’s feet to the fire and use subpoena power to do so. That is going to be significant.
“On election night in 2010 the Obama legislative agenda died. That is the same thing we are seeing tonight.”
Republican strategist Michael Steel
“House Republicans fought the good fight, but the headwinds of history and the president’s unpopularity in suburban areas proved too much.”
(Reuters)