Seemingly every four years, political pundits speculate about a “brokered” US presidential convention – only to see a nominee selected with little or no drama. But that may not be the case in 2020.
With the field of Democratic contenders deeply fragmented ahead of the all-important Super Tuesday contests in 14 states on March 3, chances are growing that no contender will amass the majority of delegates needed to clinch the nomination outright.
PredictIt, one of the most active markets taking bets on US politics, on Thursday implied a better-than-even chance that neither Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the national-front-runner, nor his rivals will secure the minimum 1,991 delegates needed to win the nomination on the first ballot at this July’s convention in Milwaukee.
Failure to secure a first-ballot win could result in a “brokered convention,” in which candidates and party leaders engage in horse trading to try to gain a majority of delegates on subsequent ballots.
No Republican or Democratic convention has gone beyond a single ballot since 1952.
But the rise of Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, has prompted Democratic Party leaders to consider whether his nomination would do more damage than a chaotic battle at July’s convention in Milwaukee.
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Here’s how the nominating process works – and why it could evolve into a messy contest.
What’s the “simple” way of capturing the nomination?
The easiest way to secure the nomination at the convention is to earn a majority of votes on the first ballot from the thousands of “pledged delegates” who will be awarded through the primary process.
Unlike Republicans, who award delegates in some states on a winner-take-all basis, all Democratic delegates are allocated proportionately. Generally speaking, the higher a candidate’s support, the more delegates collected, as long as he or she gets at least 15 percent of the vote.
The proportional system makes it more difficult for any one candidate in a crowded field to capture an outright majority of delegates.
Take New Hampshire’s primary earlier this month. Sanders narrowly defeated former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg in the popular vote, 25.7% to 24.4%, while Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota finished with 19.8%. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and former Vice President Joe Biden gained 9.2% and 8.4%, respectively.
Because Warren and Biden failed to hit 15% statewide or in either of the state’s two congressional districts, they earned no delegates.
The top three divided up the 24 available pledged delegates, with Sanders and Buttigieg getting nine each – 37.5%, significantly higher than their popular vote percentage – and Klobuchar receiving six.
(Reuters)