On February 29, Bernie Sanders lost to Joe Biden in the South Carolina primary contest for the Democratic presidential nominee. Biden’s margin of victory, 48% versus 20% for Sanders, once again showed Sanders’ inability to attract black voters, who comprise a majority of Democrats in the state.
Yet on the eve of Super Tuesday, March 3, when primaries were to be held in 14 states, most liberal and moderate media and political pundits forecast that Bernie Sanders would win the Democratic presidential nomination. Sanders had won a majority of the delegates in the February primaries.
By then Sanders had also raised about $167 million for his campaign, more than double of what Joe Biden had. Having raised only about $80 million, Biden had also spent the least on the campaign compared to the other six Democratic candidates. Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg and Beto O’Rourke, who had dropped out of the contest before March 3, announced their support for Biden. But that was expected to make little difference.
Then on Super Tuesday, white suburban Democrats turned up in large numbers to vote for Biden and help defeat Sanders. The media showed long lines of people patiently waiting to cast their votes in places like Northern Virginia, south of Washington DC.
Suburban Democrats, who are mostly white, are extremely inclined to see Donald Trump does not get re-elected in November, especially after his disastrous handling of the coronavirus outbreak. They saw Sanders as having little or no chance of beating Trump since Sanders would not inspire black voters and moderate white independents to turn out to vote for him in large numbers.
Also read: Why Did Joe Biden Disappear Right as the Coronavirus Pandemic Exploded?
In addition to his lack of support amongst the African American community, Sanders had little support among moderate independents. Additionally, while he had a big lead in the polls amongst the youth, they were not reliable voters. They did not turn out in large numbers for Sanders in the February and March primaries.
Independents decide presidential elections
In the US, roughly 30% say they are Democrats, 30% Republicans and 36% independents, according to a poll in March. Another factor is that the winner of the majority of votes in the electoral college, based on votes assigned to each state, gets elected president, irrespective of the outcome of the popular vote. Given the math of the electoral college and the balance between Republicans and Democrats, it is independents from five swing states that have decided the outcome of recent presidential elections.
For the November 2020 presidential election, it is important that the Democratic nominee gets strong support from the independents in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, especially college-educated whites and, more so, white women. Recent polls in the other two swing states show Trump with a lead in Ohio and tied with Joe Biden in Florida.
In the 2016 presidential election, some white moderates in swing states who had voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 and 2012 elections, disliked Trump. But they did not vote since they did not support Hilary Clinton, because she portrayed herself as a part of the New York-California coastal elite who looked down on folks in the Midwestern states.
Donald Trump arrives to address the daily coronavirus task force briefing at the White House in Washington, April 22, 2020. Photo: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst
Black voter turn-out is crucial for Democratic nominees
In the 2020 election, the turnout of black voters in the swing states will be the other factor determining if a Democrat wins. In 2016, Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by a total of about 80,000 votes. He would have lost the election if the turn-out of black voters for Hillary Clinton in those states was similar to that in 2008 and 2012, when Obama won the presidential elections.
Also read: Bernie Lost. But His Legacy Will Only Grow
The widespread anger among the middle-class whites was seen again on April 7. They turned out to vote in large numbers, for the election of a state supreme court judge in Wisconsin, ignoring warnings of contracting the coronavirus by being out in public spaces and despite having to wait in long lines. Both the victory of the Democrat in the race, and the margin of victory by 120,000 votes was unexpected even by local Democratic leaders. In 2016, Trump won the state by only 23,000 votes.
Gretchen Whitmer as vice presidential nominee?
Recent polls show two to one support among Americans that the easing of social distancing and other restrictions, which reduce the spread of the coronavirus, be based on scientific analysis and not on short term considerations to re-open businesses. This is despite more than 20% of Americans being unemployed or likely to be unemployed soon.
Trump is aware of the rising discontent, especially among the moderate whites. Now, at least on TV, he says that he follows scientific advice on policies surrounding coronavirus, after previously dismissing it. Simultaneously with his tweets though, Trump ignores science and encourages his supporters to organise public protests against the lockdown in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, all swing states with Democratic governors.
Based on past elections and recent polls, Biden has a good chance of defeating Trump in November, given his strong support amongst blacks and moderate whites. He is also a Catholic with good support among blue-collar workers in Pennsylvania. He said he would choose a woman as his vice-presidential running mate. If he chooses Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, it will improve his chances. In February, she was selected by Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House of Representatives, to deliver the Democratic response to Trump’s State of the Union speech.
Also read: Explainer: What Gives Joe Biden the Edge Over Bernie Sanders?
Republican party operatives are organising public protests in the state, seeking an opening of businesses and an end to Whitmer’s policies to stop the spread of the coronavirus, hoping to hurt her public appeal. Instead, the protests are bringing Whitmer to wider national attention and rising support for her amongst women.
Ignatius Chithelen is the author of Passage from India to America: Billionaire Engineers, Extremist Politics & Advantage to Canada & China.