In a 35-minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Prof. Mohammad Marandi, who is also a Professor of English Literature and Orientalism at the University of Tehran, answers questions at length about the nature and character of the response Iran could carry out as well as the costs to Tehran for doing so.
Marandi, a former senior advisor to Iran’s Nuclear Negotiation Team, who has worked closely with the new foreign minister of the country, sayid “Iran will definitely retaliate – it’s inevitable and necessary. The wrath of Iran is very much real”. He said without responding Iran won’t be safe. “The Israeli regime is a rogue regime, which the West supports regardless of this fact and regardless of what Israel has done to the Palestinian people,” he added.
The first big issue is does Tehran face a dilemma? On the one hand, President Pezeshkian has said Iran “will definitely receive a response for its crimes and insolence”. On the other hand, he has also said that Tehran does not wish to broaden the war and contribute to a bigger crisis. But is such a perfect response possible or is there a huge danger that the response will do precisely what the president is hoping it won’t i.e. broaden the war and create a bigger crisis?
Second, widening the war and escalating the crisis is exactly what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants. It will also goad Washington into joining Israel in an attack on Iran. On the other hand, not retaliating effectively would damage Iran’s credibility and affect the President’s internal standing vis-à-vis hardliners in the Iranian regime. How will he resolve this dilemma?
There are also costs to any Iranian retaliation. First, will it scupper the possibility of détente with the West and the president’s hopes of securing sanctions relief? Secondly, will it scupper prospects of a Hamas-Israel peace and the freeing of Palestinian prisoners, something the Palestinian people, who Iran supports, are aching for?
There is also another question: can the retaliation actually deter any response or further future action by Israel? The April response by Iran, when Israel killed Iranian Generals in the Iranian Consulate in Syria, neither prevented an immediate Israeli response nor the killing of Haniyeh. What are the chances a response now will be any different?
Watch the interview to know his answers to these key questions.
