According to a recent newspaper report, the Uttarakhand government has decided to constitute a committee to determine the “carrying capacity” of various urban centres in the state.
At first sight this seems to be a worthwhile and much-needed exercise, as many mountain towns are faced with the problem of high population growth beyond the capacity of their civic administrations to cope with the consequences. There is also the fear that some, if not most, towns and cities may have already exceeded their carrying capacity.
As evidence, reports point to the perennial problems faced by them – water shortage, non-availability of land for housing and other needs, failure to deal with mounting waste management, traffic jams etc.
This throws up the troubling question: how do we deal with this development? Should we, or can we, remove some people from these places? Should we, or can we, prevent more people from coming in and settling in these places? Do we have any legal authority or instruments to justify such drastic action?
It is useful to underline that while carrying capacity as a concept is being increasingly used to describe the situation in our towns and cities, and at a more general level to the planet earth, it is a difficult concept to operationalise and apply to human and social systems. Let us first try to understand what it implies.
To quote an oft-used definition:
“The carrying capacity of an environment is the maximum population size of a biological species that can be sustained by that specific environment, given the food, habitat, water and other resources available. The carrying capacity is defined as the environment’s maximal load, which in population ecology corresponds to the population equilibrium, when the number of deaths in a population equals the number of births (as well as immigration and emigration)”.
Even a cursory analysis of the concept highlights the problems in applying it to human and social systems.
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For one, in human and social systems resources are not static and fixed, they are rather quite dynamic and flexible. For instance, shortfalls in local food production can be overcome by imports from outside through channels of trade and commerce that have been created over millennia. In fact the process of urbanisation was facilitated by surplus food production in the countryside and its availability to urban areas through trading systems. Where it is not possibly to import a resource there technology provides the solution. For instance, shortage of water can be overcome by conveying it over short and long distances either by means of canals and pipelines using gravity flow, or where the terrain does not allow it, by use of pumps.
Similarly, shortage of land can by overcome by building multi-storey dwellings. Technology has also been used to augment resources and also create new resources. A good example is the seed-fertilizer package, known as the ‘green revolution’ that helped to augment food grain production manifold and prevent widespread food shortages in the decade of the seventies in the last century. Thus institutions (like the market) and technology have been instrumental in overcoming the constraints of carrying capacity.
The notion of carrying capacity is best-suited for use in closed systems like animal preserves and national parks. Here the maximum number of a predator species (carrying capacity) is based on the prey base, both in terms of the number and quality. Theoretically, carrying capacity depends on the availability of resources of various kinds – food, water, land, clean air etc; but it is ultimately determined by the resource that is in least supply.
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For instance a closed system may have enough food, land and clean air available, but only limited supplies of water. Hence the carrying capacity of the place will be determined by the availability of water. Application of the concept to open systems is quite problematic, because as argued above, intervention of technology and socio-economic institutions like the market can modify it in significant ways.
Coming to the practical application of carrying capacity to social and human systems, I am aware of two attempts to do so in Uttarakhand.
One is a comprehensive study of carrying capacity of the Doon Valley spearheaded by the National Environmentalal Engineering Research Institute (NEERI) with involvement of a number of institutions.
The report was submitted to the Ministry of Environment, which sponsored the study, in 1996 or thereabouts. The other is a study of the carrying capacity of Mussoorie undertaken by the LBS National Academy of Administration at the behest of the Supreme Court Monitoring Committee for the Doon Valley in 1997-98 and published in 2001. Surprisingly, the Mussoorie study has no reference to the NEERI study despite the fact the latter has included data from Mussoorie in its report. The NEERI study has a wealth of quantified information on various environmental domains and issues; yet it refrains from putting a value or even a range of values to the carrying capacity of the Doon Valley.
It contents itself with identifying and analysing the various factors that have a bearing on the concept. The Mussoorie study is more explicit in quantifying carrying capacity. After analysing data on population, tourist arrivals, water availability, land area it concludes that based on water availability the carrying capacity of the town comes to 46,666 persons and 9,844 overnight tourists in 1997. It estimated the population in 1997 to be 40,892 rising to 55,735 or 62,757 in 2021 (depending on assumed annual growth rate of 2,05% or 2.6%.
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Thus in terms of water availability the population of Mussoorie would not exceed the carrying capacity in 1997, but it would in 2021. However if tourist inflow into the town is taken into account then it would far exceed the carrying capacity, especially during the peak tourist season of April to July.
Faced with this situation the question that arises is how does one deal with the situation. This would be the situation in most of the towns of the state where the government proposes to undertake study of carrying capacity. This is likely to be most acute in towns falling on the Char Dham yatra route during the yatra season.
Depopulating these places or restricting the number of people undertaking Char Dham yatra is not an option the government would be willing to exercise. On the contrary the government has been encouraging more people to undertake the Char Dham yatra and providing facilities like wider roads and even ropeways to facilitate travel. In view of the above the sheer futility of the exercise is quite apparent.
B.K. Joshi is the founder-director of Doon Library and Research Centre, Dehradun and is at present its adviser.
This article was first published in the Garhwal Post, Dehradun, on August 27.