India’s ‘Neighbourhood Last’ Policy

Recents events at the South Asian University and the views expressed by Muhammad Yunus on the need to revive SAARC point to a larger failure on the part of the Indian elite in dealing with our neighbourhood.

There is sweet irony in the fact that a leader of civil society has been invited to become the facade of a state in crisis. The Bangladesh state, its armed forces and its ruling elite have had no other option but to request Muhammad Yunus, a respected leader of its civil society, and a Nobel Peace Prize winner, to take charge, restore peace and unite a divided nation. There’s a message in that for many a divided and beleaguered nation. When a government loses credibility, it is within civil society that the state must first win back its legitimacy.

In the rushed and racing commentary that has emanated from New Delhi, following the escape from Dhaka of former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, ending her increasingly authoritarian rule, many have asked if there was ‘intelligence failure’ on India’s part. Was the Indian government well advised when it chose to invite PM Hasina on a state visit as recently as in June this year, making it the first state visit hosted by the new government. 

What was the compelling factor that made the Narendra Modi government extend such an invitation to her, soon after she was in Delhi for the swearing-in ceremony of his government? This is such an obvious question for which no answer is readily available in the public domain. Was Hasina’s state visit based on the considered judgment of the Indian state or a consequence of not judging the situation in Bangladesh correctly? Was this a result of ‘intelligence failure’ or political misjudgement? 

While the INDIA parties have chosen to stand with the government in its response to events in Bangladesh, at some point they should demand answers to these questions. Why and how did we paint ourselves into the corner we find ourselves in?

While this is a question for the government to answer, there is an equally important question that the Indian media must answer. There is no point in merely complaining about ‘intelligence failure’ on the part of state agencies without also looking inwards and asking why there was a ‘media reporting failure’. Indeed, a larger ‘intellectual failure’ given that all the international relations scholarship in New Delhi’s think tanks and media was also caught napping.

Also read: To Which Asia Does India Belong – and to Which Is it Headed?

No major Indian media organisation, print and electronic, has correspondents stationed anywhere in India’s neighbourhood. The Indian public’s opinion about developments in our neighbourhood is, therefore, shaped largely either by the Indian government or by foreign, mainly western, media. This professional reporting vacuum within media has been filled by retired diplomats and officers of intelligence agencies. When something happens in Pakistan, television channels summon retired diplomats who have served there, or retired officials of intelligence agencies who continue to track developments there. Few have any expertise within. 

While there have been reporters based in China from time to time, and some very good ones at that, most media analysis about China also comes from retired diplomats and officials. Nepal and Sri Lanka used to have Indian journalists stationed there but no longer. Even when the odd report is filed it does not get much attention from editors in Delhi. 

When American troops dramatically pulled out of Kabul in 2021 there was no Indian reporter on the ground till a handful, including the intrepid correspondent Nayanima Basu, then flew into Kabul. When thousands of young people stormed the President’s Palace in Colombo in 2022 the Indian public had to once again see news despatched by western journalists. When a new political leader in the Maldives demanded the exit of uniformed Indian soldiers from the island, Indian media was once again caught unawares as to what was happening in the archipelago. India has a special interest and focus on the Indian Ocean and its littoral but there isn’t a single Indian journalist stationed on any shore around. No wonder then that in August 2024 the Indian public had to once again turn to western media for news on Bangladesh.

The real issue and challenge for Indian media is not about reporting crisis situations and dramatic developments. The real job is in the day to day reporting of life and aspirations of people next door. If political and other developments are reported on a regular basis they keep both society and government informed. Even if diplomats and spooks fail to keep track of events, the media could. 

Also read: Why Media Organisations Need to Appoint More Foreign Correspondents

Foreign correspondents are the eyes and ears of a country and often write the first draft of history.  The world got to know what Vladimir Lenin  and his comrades were up to in Russia in 1917 from the despatches of a journalist John Reed and what Mao Zedong was up to in China from yet another journalist, Edgar Snow. Both American journalists.

Most of the analysis today of events in Dhaka in 1971 come from the diaries of retired diplomats and declassified files of western intelligence agencies. Most of the columns  and voices appearing this past week on Indian media are also of retired diplomats and spooks.

Many analysts from both media and think tanks based in New Delhi have typed out hundreds of words on recent developments in Bangladesh. Yet, to the best of my knowledge, very few among them had much to say about Sheikh Hasina’s declining popularity, her growing authoritarianism and the developing crisis in Bangladesh at the time of her state visit to New Delhi. An analyst based in Goa and another in Bengaluru had a better appreciation of what was to come than counterparts in Delhi and Kolkata.

Postmortem and hindsight are useful. But if our understanding of developments in our neighbourhood is reduced to just post-facto analysis, and scratching one’s head, of what use is such writing in preparing a nation, its intelligentsia and its government to deal with such situations? 

Recents events at the South Asian University and the views expressed by Muhammad Yunus on the need to revive SAARC – the moribund South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation – point to a larger failure on the part of the Indian elite in dealing with our neighbourhood.

India has an officially declared ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ and yet our understanding of our neighbourhood would suggest that media and researchers at think tanks have a ‘Neighbourhood Last’ policy. Why blame only ‘intelligence failure’? There has been an ‘intellectual failure’.

Sanjaya Baru is an economist, a former newspaper editor, a best-selling author, and former adviser to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

India’s Lack of Respect for its South Asian Neighbours is Now Mutual

The arrogant big brother attitude that disparages and belittles the nations at its borders will leave India isolated in any face-off with a big power.

In a letter to Edwina Mountbatten in 1950, C. Rajagopalachari, the last governor-general of India before the nation became a republic, wrote, “A country without material, men or money – the three means of power – is now fast coming to be recognised as the biggest moral power in the civilised world … her word listened to with respect in the councils of the great.”

Is India still the reservoir of that moral influence? Recently it was widely reported that Sheikh Hasina, Prime Minister of Bangladesh, has not met India’s high commissioner despite repeated requests for a meeting in the last four months. Eventually, foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla had to rush to Dhaka to mend ties. Many commentators say Bangladesh is tilting toward China. This is also true for Sri Lanka and Nepal. As one after another of India’s immediate neighbours in South Asia turn away from India, it is time to contemplate where the country’s foreign policy might be failing us and the expectations of our neighbours?

Big brother arrogance

In school, I recall being taught that India is a ‘big brother’ to its smaller neighbours. Whether this ‘smaller’ meant geographical size or was a metaphor alluding to an inferior status remains lost. The entire academic grounding of international relations calls for a serious reckoning. When we don’t view our neighbours as equals and assume an air of superiority, even though it may come from a supposed sense of responsibility for the region, it automatically negates any possibility of friendship. Rather, it becomes a relationship of ‘give and take’ or one that tenuously hangs on to historical and cultural associations.

Also Read: ‘Political Absurdity,’ Says India, as it Emerges Pakistan’s ‘New’ Political Map Isn’t Really New

Of late, our preoccupation has become China and the millions that it is spending on South Asia, disregarding the predicament this creates for our neighbours. The India or China cleft stick leaves them subject to scorn by either of the two powers in Asia. With each of our South Asian neighbours, the potential for accommodating bilateral relations is immense. But our relations with nearly all of them are predominantly discordant, which should mortify us as a nation aspiring to be a global power.

Geographical map of South Asia. Photo: Wikimedia Commons/CIA, Public Domain

How has this come about? It is the culmination of decades of insensitivity towards the cultural uniqueness and predilections of the nations that abut India. In our references to Bangladesh, there is often an arrogance rising from the fact that India was the midwife of its caesarian birth and expects eternal gratitude in return.

Closer economic ties and people-to-people relations would be more beneficial in strengthening the cultural ties that already prevail. Remarks from among the political class which alluded to the supposed one crore undocumented Muslim immigrants in West Bengal who are “thriving” on the government’s Rs 2 per kg subsidised rice and are involved in arson should have been censured for their lack of sensitivity by the larger political establishment. Statements like “half of Bangladesh will be empty (vacant) if India offers citizenship to them (Bangladeshis)” reek of an arrogance that is distasteful in its implications. In the face of these repugnant announcements by politicians, it becomes difficult for the leaders of our neighbouring nations to consider warmer relations.

From friends to antagonists

At the height of India’s spat with Nepal in late May, Nepalese foreign minister Pradeep Kumar Gyawali’s view was that Nepal had been pursuing the foreign secretary-level mechanism that was mandated by the prime ministers of the two countries to work on outstanding boundary issues. But that “did not happen, as there was no confirmation from the Indian side.” Indian Army chief M.N. Naravane’s remarks on Kathmandu acting on the “behest of someone” over the Lipulekh issue were needlessly unrestrained.

There are indications that Bhutan might be tempted to partner with China over the settling of border disputes. Since the outbreak of COVID-19 and the subsequent sealing of the international borders, the simple matter of accepting Bhutanese currencies in India has become a nuisance for traders in eastern Bhutan who deal in both Indian and Bhutanese currencies. If these minor irritants are left unresolved, it begins to hurt India’s soft power diplomacy.

India may have lacked comprehension of Sri Lanka’s unease with groupings like the “Quad” and concepts like the “Indo-Pacific” association which could imply taking sides against China. Amidst the current coronavirus pandemic, Sri Lanka has made three requests to India for a postponement of its debt repayment, a debt moratorium and for a currency swap facility. India holds only about 2% of Sri Lanka’s total foreign debt of approximately $55 billion, yet no decision has been taken more than four months after the request was made personally by Sri Lankan Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It shouldn’t then be a surprise if Sri Lanka seeks reprieve from China.

India sets much store by BIMSTEC (the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation), in juxtaposition to the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) regional grouping, but this has not delivered much success either. Its summits have been woefully infrequent and its permanent secretariat in Dhaka is chronically understaffed and underfunded. Apart from Thailand as the other most influential member, India has a special responsibility in terms of financing, leadership, and connectivity towards this regional grouping, especially because it is often touted as a rebound from SAARC. Without tangible benefits for the other nations, it becomes just another forum for anti-terrorism rhetoric, with no real worth.

News of India extending financial support for infrastructural projects in the Maldives was tail-pieced with views that it was done to pre-empt any Chinese move to woo the country.

PM Narendra Modi and Sri Lankan PM Mahinda Rajapaksha in New Delhi. Photo: PTI/Files

The enemy factor

For a very long time, India’s rivalry with Pakistan and the resultant hyphenated identity marked the impression the country made internationally. With poised diplomatic engagement, the slant of an antagonistic hyphenated India-Pakistan relationship was dissolved at the start of this millennium, only to be supplanted now with a hostile India-China relationship.

This India-China conflict reverberates in the rest of South Asia, changing existing equations. But while India may not be able to match China’s deep pockets, this can be outclassed by creating trust and engaging in non-prescriptive development assistance. And despite China’s spending capacity, India is uniquely placed to appreciate the disparities and paradoxes of the region because it shares borders with all the other South Asian nations.

Some foreign policy analysts have argued that India cannot ‘help its size or strength’ and ‘we are damned if we do and damned if we don’t.’ But setting aside policy decisions, the need of the hour is finer receptivity towards the dispositions of our neighbouring nations. Propagandistic content on social media platforms whose purpose is to create a mob mentality on foreign policy issues needs to be handled with care. Recently, minister of external affairs S. Jaishankar agreed that the “sharp positioning” of the Nepalese leadership may have been “magnified by the media“. As long as serious bilateral issues are kicked around and ‘forwarded’ lightly on social media apps, a subliminal appreciation of the neighbourhood’s cultural and strategic links will fail to develop.

Also Read: ‘Mudslinging Against PM Oli’: Nepal Cable Distributors Block Indian News Channels

A need for trust and faith

India looms as the largest nation in South Asia and in many ways the subcontinent is defined by her. It is natural that our neighbours feel insecure about their “independence and identity“. Setting aside the obsession with the huge amounts that China is investing in our neighbourhood, let’s begin by simply respecting the complexities of our South Asian neighbours. It may be prudent to revisit the aspects of the Gujral doctrine, which emphasise the need for good faith and trust as the basis of India’s relations with its South Asian neighbours.

To be a true leader in the region, it’s time for India to stop the berating and the belittling. In the pursuit of better regional relations, the foremost aspect would be to inculcate respect for our South Asian neighbours in our political establishment, which filters into the collective psyche of the nation.

Vaishali Basu Sharma has worked as a consultant with the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) for several years. She is presently associated with the think tank Policy Perspectives Foundation.

South Asian University: A Success Story That Can’t Be Allowed to Fall Prey to Apathy

An ad by the Ministry of External Affairs, inviting applications from Indians for the post of the SAU president, has triggered controversy.

The South Asian University (SAU) – an international university established in 2010 by the eight South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries – is a unique experiment that demonstrates cooperation in the south Asian region, which is otherwise marred by regional conflicts and differences. 

In a short span of less than a decade, SAU has brought together students from all the eight SAARC countries to study under one roof.

When the university started its operations, only a few hundred students applied. But this number has increased significantly over the years, touching around 7,000 for 180 seats in the various Masters courses in 2019. This increasing number of applicants is testimony to the university’s success, and its academic reputation. 

Also read: JNU: The Story of the Fall of a Great University

The success of any university is generally measured by the performance of its alumni. The SAU alumni are doing very well. Some teach in leading universities in the south Asian region, some have gone abroad for higher studies in prestigious universities like Oxford, Cambridge, European Central University, and so on. Yet others work in leading think tanks, while some are serving their governments and judiciary.    

The mainstay of SAU is its highly qualified faculty who have inspired and motivated students to do well.

SAU has been able to attract talented faculty members who have been trained at leading international and national universities in India and south Asia and have an impeccable research record. SAU faculty members are well known for their research work.  

However, a recent advertisement by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) inviting applications for the post of the SAU president from Indian nationals has triggered some controversy.

The university’s rules say “the first President of the University shall be nominated by the host country. Subsequent Presidents…shall be nominated by the respective Member States of SAARC on the principle of alphabetical rotation.”

Also read: At South Asian University, India Finds it Takes Hard Work to Exercise Soft Power

The advertisement is thus being seen as an example of Indian hegemony in the south Asian region.

I do not wish to speculate on the reasons for this advertisement.

However, it is a fact that at a time when the SAU campus is still under construction, it might be prudent to have an Indian as the president. Any other SAARC national may find it difficult to deal with various levels of government and regulatory agencies that are needed for the construction of the campus.

Students celebrate at the first South Asian University convocation. Photo: PTI

While the rotational principle for the selection of the president would help cement the university in the academic life of all south Asian nations and not just India, it is more essential that an accomplished academician with an impeccable track record who can take the university to greater heights should lead SAU at this stage.  

In any case, the principle of rotation for the post of president has already been violated when it came to the first and second presidents of SAU – G.K. Chadha and Kavita Sharma are both Indian.

Moreover, the argument that all-important positions in SAU are occupied by Indian nationals is also misleading.

A Sri Lankan national held the position of one of the vice-presidents of SAU for almost three years. Likewise, a Pakistani and a Sri Lankan have held the positions of director finance, a very important administrative post, in the past.

Also read: As SAARC Faces Unprecedented Setback, Time to Rethink the Rigid Boundaries of Its Nation States

In the current administration, the position of two deputy registrars, one assistant registrar and assistant director (infrastructure) are held by a Pakistani, a Bhutanese, a Nepali and a Sri Lankan respectively. SAU’s small but useful library is very well managed by a librarian who comes from Bangladesh.

The current dean of the Faculty of Mathematic and Computer Sciences is also from Bangladesh. Of course, SAU needs to do more to have greater diversity in its faculty and staff.  

It is also a fact that India is the biggest financial contributor in running SAU.

It is bearing 100% of the cost for the construction of the SAU campus and has contributed more than 50% of the university’s operating expenses. It has been learnt that for the current funding round of the university, only India has paid its share. Other SAARC countries are yet to pay their dues. Pakistan has still not paid its full share even for the previous funding cycle of the university. 

SAU is a dream university that has served and is serving all the eight SAARC countries really well.

As an alumnus of this unique, diverse and cosmopolitan university, I only hope that this university goes from strength to strength.

India’s role is critical in ensuring the continued success of this wonderful project. India has to play the role of a regional leader in ensuring that SAU’s unique international character is fortified.

True to its neighbourhood first policy, it is critical for India to continue supporting this project with greater enthusiasm in building academic excellence that would have a generational impact in the south Asian region.             

Pushkar Anand is assistant professor at the Faculty of Law, University of Delhi, and an alumnus of the South Asian University, New Delhi, from where he obtained his LL.M. in 2015.

India’s Focus Shift From SAARC to BIMSTEC Is Strategic, but Underused

While India has tactfully used the platform to diplomatically isolate Pakistan, it must also tap into BIMSTEC’s immense potential for development, connectivity and trade in the region.

Leaders of the BIMSTEC countries attended Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing-in ceremony last Thursday. This is an opportunity for India to leverage the grouping for better regional economic integration, rather than merely as a diplomatic tool to isolate Pakistan.

BIMSTEC comprises India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. In other words, it is SAARC minus Pakistan and Afghanistan, plus Thailand and Myanmar. In 2014, Modi had invited leaders of the SAARC countries for his swearing-in ceremony.

However, since then, tensions between India and Pakistan have led to New Delhi shifting focus from SAARC to BIMSTEC. Since its formation in 1997, we have only witnessed BIMSTEC coming to life during periods of tensions between India and Pakistan. During Modi’s first term, India began focusing on BIMSTEC after a series of terrorist attacks on Indian defence establishments in Uri and Pathankot.

Also Read: Why India Revoking Pakistan’s ‘Most Favoured Nation’ Status is More Symbolic Than Economic

After the Uri attack of 2016, India boycotted the SAARC summit, which was to be held in Islamabad. The summit was called off after other members states followed suit. Soon after, India invited BIMSTEC leaders to the BRICS outreach summit in Goa in 2016. Thereafter, the 2018 BIMSTEC summit in Nepal saw the grouping pass a resolution demanding that states that “encourage, support or finance terrorism, provide sanctuaries to terrorists and terror groups” be held accountable.

The invitation to BIMSTEC leaders for Modi’s swearing-in ceremony last week fits into this pattern. It follows Indo-Pak tensions in the aftermath of the terrorist attack on an Indian armed forces convoy in Pulwama in February. Since Pakistan is not a part of BIMSTEC, India has used the organisation, effectively, to diplomatically isolate it within South Asia.

BIMSTEC leaders at the 2018 summit in Kathmandu. Credit: narendramodi/Twitter

BIMSTEC’s immense potential

However, such an approach is restrictive in nature. It limits the organisation from exploring its full potential. According to a recent World Bank report, South Asia is one of the most densely populated but poorly integrated regions in the world. Its intra-regional trade is less than 5% of the total trade of South Asian countries.

The report argues that there is potential to at least double this figure. But this cannot be achieved through SAARC, as the organisation has fallen victim to the bilateral dispute between India and Pakistan. Herein lies the opportunity that BIMSTEC provides.

Leveraging BIMSTEC, India focus on connectivity projects in and around the Bay of Bengal region. This could help unleash the potential of the seven northeastern states in India. It is important to remember that the Sittwe port in Myanmar is closer to the northeast region than Kolkata. Furthermore, physical connectivity with BIMSTEC would also help India integrate itself with ASEAN’s Master Plan of Connectivity 2025.

India has already invested in the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the BIMSTEC Motor Vehicle Agreement. However, these projects are long from being completed due to issues related to the allocation of resources, lack of political will and institutional coordination between countries.

Better connectivity projects would help India leverage the untapped potential of BIMSTEC’s possible trade linkages. Currently, intra-BIMSTEC trade has grown at a meagre rate of 0.62% annually. However, New Delhi’s total trade with the six BIMSTEC countries has grown at an annual growth rate of 10.4%.

The absence of free trade agreements and the lack of seamless movement of goods and services within the region explains these low levels of intra-regional trade. The fourth BIMSTEC Summit in 2018, like the first three, reiterated the need to finalise a BIMSTEC FTA.

Also read: India and China’s Belt and Road Initiative: A Turning Point?

Apart from improving connectivity and enhancing regional trade, BIMSTEC could also help in partially addressing India’s growing energy requirements. India, along with other BIMSTEC countries, is exploring energy opportunities at the Rakhine coast of Myanmar in the northern part of the Bay of Bengal. In this context, BIMSTEC has already established an energy centre in New Delhi to provide logistic, technical and research support.

Being the largest and most developed country in this grouping, the onus of steering the organisation forward lies with India. However, if India pursues an approach of selective usage, it restricts the ability of the organisation to live up to its full potential. The benefits from greater regional integration are much higher than simply using BIMSTEC as a diplomatic tool for isolation within the region.

Suyash Desai is a JNU scholar and a research analyst working on China at the Takshashila Institute, Bangalore.

Modi’s Neighbourhood Policy: Chronicling Four Wasted Years

Instead of soundly running foreign policy through sober, institutionalised mechanisms, it is the misuse of foreign affairs to build a personality cult that has been at the root of the Modi Diplomatic Disaster in South Asia.

On May 26, 2014, while the media applauded and Indian, South Asian and world opinion welcomed Narendra Modi’s innovative move to invite heads of state/government from all South Asian governments to the forecourt of Rashtrapati Bhavan to witness his coronation – sorry, his taking the oath as the next prime minister of India – I was perhaps alone in being frankly appalled.

For it seemed such an imitation of the Delhi Durbar summoned in 1911 by the Laat Sahib, Viceroy Lord Hardinge of Penhurst, to pay obeisance to George V, King-Emperor of India. It was perhaps at that moment that I first realised that Modi was not so much a PM but an EM – a master events manager who could hoodwink the brightest and the best to think this invitation represented policy when all it amounted to was chutzpah and glitz.

Yet, instead of feeling insulted, it seems this bevy of South Asian leaders were so thrilled to be invited that they were ready to sit out the function in the blistering May heat because they thought Modi represented a new beginning in India’s relationship with her immediate neighbours.

Pakistan

The first to be conned was Nawaz Sharif, the then prime minister of Pakistan.

Modi began his odyssey of serial hugging by first grabbing Nawaz Sharif to his ’56-inch chest’ while simultaneously assuring him that the stalled India-Pakistan dialogue would receive a mighty impetus in the new golden age of South Asian cooperation that was dawning.

For his part, Nawaz Sharif so enthusiastically welcomed the initiative that he forgot to put the standard clichés about Kashmir into the text of the joint statement. And although he drew some flak at home for this lapse, the overall sentiment in Pakistan was that Modi was the best thing that had happened to them since at least Morarji Desai.

I was intrigued at this enthusiastic welcome for a hardcore Sanghi, and so availed of a visit to Pakistan a fortnight later to check on what made them so euphoric about the change of regime in India. I traced it to what one might call the Nixon syndrome. Intelligent, well-informed Pakistanis, including former foreign minister Khurshid Kasuri, patiently explained to me that even as it took a hardcore right-wing Nixon, who had made anti-China ranting his political stock-in-trade, and was, therefore, able to “sell” to his core political base his sudden and startling outreach to Mao Tse Tung, so would a tough RSS-type like Modi do far better than his predecessors in making a deal with Pakistan that would stick.

I tried to say that any forward movement with Pakistan would undercut and undermine the anti-Muslim fuel on which the Sangh parivar’s engine runs, but my Pakistani friends brushed the point aside. Modi, the Deliverer, had, they believed, arrived!   

It was announced that the India-Pakistan composite dialogue (by whatever name called) would be resumed with an initial meeting between the foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan in the third week of August 2014. My Pakistani friends appeared to be winning the argument.  It seemed that out of prejudice against Modi and the BJP, I had misread the situation.

Then, on August 8, an innocuous item appeared in the papers, tucked away deep in an inside page, that, in the preparation for the resumed dialogue, the Pakistan High Commissioner, Abdul Basit, would be meeting at Pakistan House, New Delhi, with a delegation of Hurriyat leaders. This, by then, had become so routine that not even Arnab Goswami had his nightly dose of apoplexy. A decade earlier, the first BJP premier, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, had given the green signal for meetings between the Hurriyat and Pakistani notables in New Delhi after it had been explained to him, and he had agreed, that the credibility of Pakistan maintaining dialogue with Delhi rested on giving the Pakistan public at least the appearance that its representatives were keeping the Hurriyat in the loop.

Pakistan’s High Commissioner to India Abdul Basit. Credit: PTI

High Commissioner Basit had scheduled the get-together on August 18, that is, the eve of the Indian foreign secretary’s departure for Islamabad. Suddenly, foreign secretary Sujata Singh received instructions from up high to summon the Pakistan HC and tell him in no uncertain terms that if he went ahead with meeting the Hurriyat she would not be taking off for Islamabad. And with that, the unconsummated honeymoon ended. As whimsically as the process had begun in May 2014, equally whimsically it was terminated less than a 100 days later.

And the whimsicality continued at the Kathmandu SAARC summit in November 2014. In an act of calculated discourtesy, Modi ostentatiously held a magazine in front of his face as Nawaz Sharif passed by him to go to the podium to address the meeting. Then, as Barkha Datt discovered, he had a secret tryst with Sharif in a hotel room arranged by Sharif’s business partner, Sajjan Jindal.

The personalisation of foreign policy had begun, ending the well-established institutionalised practice of trained diplomatic experts carefully preparing the ground before the last leg of the trek to the summit begins. This personalisation has proved the bane of four years of foreign and neighbourhood policy under Modi. The external affairs minister, the hapless Sushma Swaraj, has been marginalised as never before, while the nuts and bolts of everyday diplomacy have been outsourced to a retired spook, with the Foreign Secretary reduced to acting as the policeman’s handmaiden.

There followed the Ufa summit in the Russian Federation the following year. With no preparatory arrangements made whatsoever, Modi had his next meeting with Sharif. Triumphantly, Modi and his coterie flaunted a joint communiqué that announced a visit to New Delhi by Pakistan’s National Security Adviser and de facto foreign minister, Sartaj Aziz, the very next month – August 2015 – to kickstart a resumption of the India-Pakistan dialogue.

PM Narendra Modi with Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif in Ufa, Russia. Credit: PTI

Disruption followed almost immediately because Team Modi started publicly claiming that this was an unprecedented Modi victory because only terrorism would be on the agenda, not Kashmir. Inevitably, a huge row broke out in Pakistan, leading, as day to the night, to Sartaj calling off the visit. Flop Number Two.

Modi then sat briefly on a sofa with Sharif at the Paris Climate Change conference. There followed a flurry of activity. The two NSAs met in Bangkok and hastily put together a road-map. Sushma Swaraj was briefly resurrected to fetch up in Islamabad for the Heart of Asia conference and mutter a few sweet nothings.

Suddenly, a few days later, as Modi flew out of Kabul on Christmas Day, it was announced that his flight was not heading to Delhi but landing at Lahore – another personal triumph for ’56 inches’ of diplomacy.  The sheer drama of it had our ever-triviality obsessed media falling over themselves. What a Great Man this Modi, spontaneously dropping in on his great chum Sharif to wish him on the birthday he shares with Jesus Christ and giving his blessings to Sharif’s grand-daughter on the eve of holy matrimony. Again, no prior preparation, just personalised stuntsmanship masquerading as statesmanship.

In consequence, within a week, a helpful police official gave a lift to a bunch of Pakistani terrorists searching for the way to the hopelessly insecure air force station at Pathankot. A horrified India awoke on New Year’s Day to the news of yet another Pakistani terrorist attack – this time on a highly sensitive military complex.

Soldiers on the top of a building at the Indian air force base in Pathankot , a day after the end of military operations against militants in Pathankot. Credit: PTI

Either the Sharif government was complicit – in which case advance intelligence inputs should have been obtained, and discreet diplomatic soundings made, before precipitately bursting in on the Sharif household. Or the Pak government was not complicit, in which case breaking the dialogue before it had begun was a self-goal that left India-Pakistan relations hostage to any nut-case Pakistani seeking 72 houries in the next world by slipping across the border and rubbing out a couple of kafirs. Of course, the third possibility was that the Nawaz Sharif government was just not in control, in which case why drop in on a clueless Prime Minister?   

Instead of soundly running foreign policy through sober, institutionalised mechanisms, it is the misuse of foreign affairs to build a personality cult that has been at the root of the Modi Diplomatic Disaster in South Asia. Nothing has been achieved because the ground has never been carefully prepared. A sudden summit is fine to start a process. But what should follow is a carefully crafted process of discreet preparation that quietly settles most issues, leaving, by mutual agreement, one or two points open for the two heads of state/government to resolve when they meet – of course, to wild applause from their countrymen and women.

But as Modi wants all the credit for himself, he remains a general with no foot soldiers, and so comes a cropper each and every time he makes a dramatic gesture in the name of diplomatic innovation. He is unable to see foreign policy beyond the photo-op.

The next major development in India’s tortured relations with Pakistan came in the wake of Uri with Modi’s “surgical strike”. It was reported that terrorist “launch pads” in Pakistan had been taken out. (Launch pads? Surely launch pads are for ballistic missiles? Since when have abandoned Bakarwal huts been elevated to “launch pads”?) And with what results?

Modi recently claimed that the strikes so scared the Pakistanis they wouldn’t even come on the phone line to talk to us! But if the surgical strikes did scare the daylights out of the Pakistanis, then would the PM kindly explain why ever since more Indian civilians have been killed in cross-border firing and more jawans martyred in the last two years than in the entire decade of Dr Manmohan Singh’s government? Why has there been more cross-border infiltration? Why more terrorist incursions? Simply because the surgical strikes, however dramatic at that moment, seem to have deterred nothing since. They have only aggravated Pakistan’s disproportionate retaliation.

We are no nearer the resolution of any issue with Pakistan than we were on 26 May 2014. It is only once the government changes, hopefully after the next Lok Sabha elections, that responsible diplomacy might have a chance.

Nepal

The next target for Modi’s ministrations was Nepal. He landed in Kathmandu a few weeks after the swearing-in ceremony in the forecourt of Rashtrapati Bhawan.

What a reception he was accorded! All along the road, everywhere he went, the cutest children in the world – who are undoubtedly the children of Nepal – were lined up waving Indian and Nepali flags: “It was roses, roses all the way/With myrtle mixed in his path like mad” (Robert Browning). Modi and his team, continuing his election campaign even after becoming PM, repeatedly underlined that Modi had arrived in Nepal within weeks of becoming PM whereas his predecessor had not visited Nepal even once during his decade-long tenure.

What was not mentioned was that through the period of Dr Singh’s term, Nepal had not been able to stitch together a constitution and, given what appeared to be a virtual three-way ethnic divide between the dominant Khas-Arya, the Adibasi-janajati and the Madhesi-Tharu, overlaid (at least in the Indian perception) by issues between the Paharis and the plainspeople of the Terai, it would have been highly imprudent for an Indian PM to be seen or portrayed as taking sides in the ever-shifting sands of the country’s fractious politics that had seen nine PMs come and go in as many years.

Modi, on the other hand, had every intention of meddling in Nepal’s internal affairs, as was shortly to be revealed – and that too with the naked aim of influencing the then upcoming state assembly elections in Bihar, a state that that celebrates its roti-beti relations with the plains region of Nepal, the Terai. For it was known to all and sundry that Modi would be undertaking a second visit to Kathmandu just a few months later – in November 2014 – for the SAARC summit. So, having beguiled the Nepalese with his goodwill blitzkrieg on his first visit, he then asked to make his second visit in November by road, going first to Janakpur, the birthplace of Sita, and also taking in the Muktinath temple in the vicinity of Mustang before finally reaching the Nepalese capital for the SAARC summit.

Modi speaks to the media as Nepal PM K.P. Sharma Oli stands next to him during his visit at Janaki Mandir in Janakpur in May 2018. Credit: Reuters

At first, the Nepalese government played along, but as further demands began pouring in, first to hold a public rally in Janakpur, followed by the distribution of ten thousand bicycles to Nepali girl students, many of whose parents would shortly be seeking bridegrooms in Bihar, the Nepalese awoke to the horror of being used as cats-paws in an Indian state election. They turned down Jankapur, they turned down Mustang, and they turned down the proposed road journey that would have been trailed by truck-loads of BJP followers pouring into the Terai, and asked Modi to land directly in Kathmandu like all other South Asian leaders coming for the Summit.  

In November the following year (2015), he got the opportunity he was seeking to avenge himself. After nine years of internecine wrangling among parties and factions, that saw prime ministers and governments come and go through the revolving door of Nepal politics, the Nepalese Constituent Assembly suddenly closed ranks and, by an overwhelming majority, adopted a constitution. A vast majority of the Madhesi representatives voted for the motion, especially as they were assured that the incoming Parliament would continue to function as a constituent assembly for any amendments any member might wish to bring for the consideration of the House. 

Nevertheless, Modi, furious that he had been thwarted, sought to prevent the constitution, as adopted, from being proclaimed. He even had the temerity to send his favourite foreign secretary, relabelled as the PM’s “special envoy”, to bully the Nepalese legislature and government into postponing the proclamation of the Constitution till Modi’s desires had been fulfilled. It was a most egregious example of gross interference in the internal affairs of another independent state.

Little wonder, the Nepalese were astounded, then shocked, then appalled at his blatant violation of their sovereignty. How would we have reacted to, say, Mountbatten fetching up in Delhi on January 24, 1950, to order us to not go ahead with proclaiming our constitution two days later? Given the special envoy’s manner, bearing and message, one Nepal newspaper compared him to Lord Curzon!

Modi’s outrageous demand was rejected – and the Nepalese went ahead and ceremonially proclaimed their hard-fought Constitution, as scheduled.

Team Modi retaliated almost instantly. They both encouraged and were complicit in a vicious months-long blockade of land-locked Nepal that disrupted supplies of even essential food items and medicines, as also of petroleum products, adding immeasurably to the misery of the ordinary people of Nepal who were still recovering from the trauma of the earthquake that had devastated their country a few weeks earlier.

Modi seemed not to realise that in his Nepalese counterpart, K.P. Sharma Oli, hardened by 14 continuous years in prison from 1973 to 1987, he had more than met his match. Oli responded by ratcheting up Nepal’s relationship with China, signing ten agreements with Beijing, including a trade and transit agreement that ended India’s monopoly control over Nepal’s external communications, and opening the way to a railway that would connect China with Nepal through Tibet. Oli then went on to conciliate his Nepalese communist rivals and consolidate his long-standing relations with the people of the plains.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with his Nepalese counterpart K.P. Oli. Credit: PTI

While other parties squabbled and bickered over petty issues, Oli single-mindedly worked towards victory in the three tiers of election promised by the constitution in sequence at the local, provincial and federal level – this despite being ousted from the premiership in a political coup in which several Nepalese commentators suspected an Indian hand.

At each of the three levels, Oli triumphed, with the plainspeople in all but Province no.2 widely supporting him. Thus he emerged as the undisputed leader of Nepal, uniting the communists into a single political entity and hence assured of retaining his office for at least another five years.

Modi has had to bow to the inevitable. He has visited Nepal to “reset” India-Nepal relations, relations that needed resetting only because he had so thoroughly wrecked them in the first place. The mood in Nepal was succinctly summed up in a placard that said, “Welcome, Modi, but we haven’t forgotten the blockade”.

Bangladesh

With Bangladesh, the summum bonum of the relationship is Modi doing no more than signing an agreement earlier negotiated by previous governments, on the demarcation of the land boundary, including the hotly contested Teen Bigha enclaves. The far more important Teesta river issues continue to fester.

But the worst negative development is the amendment to the Citizenship Act the Modi government is attempting to push through to fulfill Modi’s wholly communal promise to allow non-Muslim Bangladesh-origin immigrants to secure entitlement to Indian citizenship while placing severe discriminatory restrictions on Bangladeshi Muslims, especially as this is bound to rebound on wholly legitimate Assam-born and Assam-resident Muslims, whose share in the state’s population is the second-largest (after J&K) of any state of the Union.

The move has not only severely divided the Barak valley of Assam from the Brahmaputra valley, political temperatures in the Brahmaputra valley have soared to the point that a repetition of the horrors that preceded Rajiv Gandhi’s Assam accord of 1985 appears to be on the cards. Even the BJP CM of Assam is openly distressed. Bangladesh, of course, is seething. Unless this wholly unwise move is stoppered, India-Bangladesh relations are sure to plummet.

Moreover, the wholly Hasina-centric and Khaleda-phobic bias in our Bangladesh policy has not been even marginally reset, entailing the danger of an unraveling of India-Bangladesh relations if regime change were to occur – an ever-present possibility in a democracy (and even worse were there to be a coup).

Bhutan

Doklam has signalled the inflexion point in our relations with Bhutan, the first South Asian country Modi visited with much hype and fanfare. While Modi’s musclemen skewed up the tension, our professional diplomats were mercifully left to their devices to defuse the situation. Wuhan represented Modi’s acceptance of the inevitable. The Chinese are now at Doklam to stay. But in the meanwhile, we have given Bhutan such a fright that India-Bhutan relations have, perhaps forever, lost the even tenor that has characterised our relations with this key neighbour since Independence.

Satellite map of Chumbi Valley, Doklam region. Credit: Scribble Maps

Satellite map of Chumbi Valley, Doklam region. Credit: Scribble Maps

Bhutan, especially after Modi’s bumblings, is itching to free itself of its abject dependence on India, especially in matters of international relations. As a bright young new generation Bhutanese commentator, Tenzing Lamsang, has remarked, Bhutan’s existential dilemma is that it has to “avoid both the fire from the Dragon and the Elephant tusks in our soft underbelly”!

More disturbingly, our economic relations with Bhutan are also fraught with raging, if muted, argument over hydroelectric projects, their management and their pricing.

In 2008, Dr Manmohan Singh, on what the Bhutan press hailed as a “historic visit” to Bhutan, won all hearts by dramatically doubling the promise to Bhutan of “5000 MW by 2020” to “10,000 MW by 2020”. The impact of this doubling may be measured by recalling that the current Chukka (1800 MW) and Tala (1400 MW) projects are generating 60 percent of Bhutan’s government revenues and about a quarter of the country’s GDP. Ten thousand MW more of hydropower would take Bhutan into the South-east Asia league!

While work was initiated on ten identified hydropower projects to give teeth to Dr Singh’s promise, under Modi so many unilateral reservations and conditions have been sought to be imposed on Bhutan that, effectively, the “10,000 MW by 2020” pledge has been whittled down to “6467 MW by 2022”.  It hasn’t helped either that Piyush Goyal and his successors in India’s power ministry have been proclaiming India’s imminent self-sufficiency in power. What then, ask the bewildered Bhutanese, will we do with our only real development resource, the electricity we generate from our rivers?

Such shameful backtracking has been brought about by Modi’s India switching the funding pattern from 60% grant and 40% loan on easy terms to 30% grant and 70% loans at augmented rates of interest; insisting on four of the projects (Chamkarchhu, Khorongchhu, Wangchhu and Bonakaha, planned to generate 2120 MW) from being Bhutan-owned enterprises (as in the previous case of Chukka and Tala) and becoming instead joint ventures with Indian PSUs holding 51% of the stake and securing “more managerial control”. There is thus a deadlock on terms of financing.

Also, where the 2006 protocol to the inter-governmental agreement on the massive Sunkosh (2560 MW) and Kuri Gongri (2640 MW) projects solemnly and unambiguously categorised these as “inter-governmental projects”, Modi’s cohort has been demanding that the these two key projects (that are not run-of-the-river but reservoir projects and, therefore, a guarantee of year-round electricity supply) be put in the category of India-dominated joint ventures.

To add insult to injury, disquiet in Bhutan reached fever pitch when the Modi government, without consulting Bhutan, issued on December 5, 2016, its Guidelines for Cross-Border Trade in Electricity (CBTE). The guidelines

– curtail the types of investment permitted in hydropower projects in Bhutan if the output were to be sold in India (the main export market for a country whose major hope for development is hydropower; it also effectively debars Bhutan’s sovereign Druk Holding and Investments from investing without a majority-holding Indian partner in their own hydropower sector, while closing the Indian market to Bhutan’s own Punatsangchhu I&II power);

– insist that Bhutan keeps its tariff at the lower end (India buys Chukka and Tala power at about a sixth of the price it charges Indian consumers!); and

– restrict Bhutan’s entry into the Indian energy trading market to secure higher prices for its electricity (to forestall any further development of Bhutan’s initial success in competing in the Indian energy market for118 MW Nikachhu electricity)

Bhutan hydropower potential could change around its position in South-Asian economics. Credit: Radio Free Barton/Flickr, CC BY-SA

Little wonder then that the gentle and ever-courteous prime minister of Bhutan found himself obliged to mildly protest that Modi’s Guidelines “essentially restrict” Bhutan’s options for the development of its hydropower potential “and give the Indian government a strong say over Bhutan’s hydropower future”.

Does this not sound like Dadabhai Naoroji denouncing colonial economic policy in the House of Commons circa 1890?

Of course, an alternative (if smaller) market for Bhutan’s electricity is Bangladesh, a nation whose development needs make it so desperate for power that, under the overall aegis of the SAARC Framework Agreement for Energy Cooperation, Bangladesh offered to fund the 1125 MW Dorjilung power project and buy the entire output to be transmitted to Bangladesh through India. Modi put his foot down on such trilateral cooperation. So much for friendship with neighbours!

Under Modi, we leaned on Bhutan to sign the South Asia Motor Vehicles Agreement even after the Bhutanese Parliament had rejected it. The retaliation came when Bhutan refused to sign up on the Bhutan-Bangladesh-India-Nepal connectivity accord that the Modi government was determinedly promoting.

Unless we shed all machismos and start treating Bhutan as a fully sovereign, independent country, we run the risk of Bhutan going the Nepal way.

Sri Lanka

Despite having tried to acquire a high profile in Sri Lankan affairs with a view to contributing to a resolution of the island’s deep ethnic divide between Tamils and Sinhalas that spills over to Tamil Nadu, India remains a sidelined player. This, of course, is largely owing to  the Modi government’s total inability to win the confidence of any section of the Sri Lankan polity. Indeed, as a perceptive observer of the Sri Lankan scene, has remarked, “every stakeholder in Sri Lanka looks at India with suspicion, both behind and beyond our shoulders”.

It is a measure of the hollowness of the claims initially made that, as the new face of India, Modi was going to prove the prime mover and shaker of Sri Lankan affairs, that India has been rendered redundant in the heroic long-term effort made by the Maithripala-Ranil government, under the umbrella of its National Policy for Reconciliation, and principally through the Office of National Unity and Reconciliation headed by former president Chandrika B. Kumaratunga, “to change the hearts, minds and attitudes of people of all communities, beginning with school children, University students and adults”, as also innovative initiatives like “Women for Reconciliation” to help war widows in the Tamil areas of the North and East, and Sinhala military widows in the south of the island.

Additional assistance to the Sri Lankan Tamil population has, of course, been announced by Narendra Modi on his visit to the North and East, but that does not amount to even icing on the cake. Merely popping up in exotic locations not visited by earlier Indian PMs does not amount to foreign policy.

The Chinese, meanwhile, have moved into Hambantota and not all the “Quads” in the world are going to displace them. The Indian Ocean is no longer our domestic lake. Perhaps it never was.

Maldives

And that assessment is reinforced by the happenings in the Maldives. We have a government there that dislikes India quite as much as it loves the Chinese. Modi stands hapless before this “factuity”. Where once India’s Rajiv Gandhi was begged to come to the armed rescue of a besieged Maldivian government by the president himself (and acted with alacrity to save democracy from a military takeover even though he was in far-away Harare at the time), India under Modi counts for zilch at the very cross-roads of the Indian Ocean. China has arrived and the same Modi’s India that aspires to “Great Power” status in the world cannot make even a blade of grass move in its own backyard.

Ever since President Mohammed ‘Anni’ Nasheed was ousted in 2012, India has been in a dilemma as to whether to deal with the ground reality in the Maldives or continue searching in the sky for a rainbow to appear. The 2018 presidential election approaches and, barring a miracle, the Yameen regime will continue, especially since every possible contender is either barred from standing or locked behind bars. India’s preferred Maldivian, ex-president Nasheed, continues to seek asylum in the United Kingdom, and his Maldives Democratic Party therefore continues to stagnate in the doldrums. 

Prime Minister with President of Maldives, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, in New Delhi. Credit: Ministry of External Affairs.

Prime Minister with President of Maldives, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, in New Delhi. Credit: Ministry of External Affairs.

Also, although the Commonwealth and the US have made threatening noises about democracy being murdered in the Maldives, [resident Yameen has simply walked out of the Commonwealth and cocked his snook at the US.

As N. Sathiya Moorthy, the ardent observer of the Maldives scene has remarked in an article in the South Asia Journal, Maldives has “once again reiterated even in its very own context the limitations of international diplomacy and big power politics to control and conduct events and developments in smaller/tiny nations than had been possible in an earlier era”. If that is the reality that the Western powers are having to swallow, can Modi’s India do better? Hardly – for sovereignty cannot be encroached upon except in extremis.

To protest the overthrow of democracy in the Maldives, Modi dropped his intention of including the Maldives in his South Asian neighbours tour programme. It was an empty gesture. The playing out of domestic politics in Maldives in the last four years has so marginalised India that it is difficult to say whether it is we who are isolating the Maldives or the Maldives who are isolating us!

It thus becomes imperative to answer Sathiya Moorthy’s burning question: has India under Modi “overdone its ‘pro-democracy’ position on Maldives to the point of making it look anti-Yameen and pro-Nasheed even more?” Until India objectively assesses its real capacity to influence political developments in the Maldives (at present, near zero), we will continue to lose influence and every step backwards by India will be matched by two steps forward by China.

SAARC

SAARC, and hence South Asian cooperation, have suffered continuously under Modi’s watch. He won a Pyrrhic victory by sabotaging the Islamabad summit but everyone else wants the summit to be held – and that too in Islamabad, not elsewhere – so what the point Modi was trying to make remains obscure.

The forecourt of Rashtrapati Bhawan witnessed on 26 May 2014 a grand spectacle. The spectacle has proved empty of content. The only hope of South Asian solidarity lies in a change of government a year from now. Till then, one can only pray that things will not go from bad to even worse.

Mani Shankar Aiyar is a member of the Congress party and a former MP and minister in the erstwhile UPA government (currently under suspension).