At Least Half of Mumbai’s Minors Have COVID-19 Antibodies: Govt Survey

Some experts have warned that a potential third wave could hit children, and Mumbai has joined other cities in building huge paediatric wards in preparation.

Mumbai: At least half of Mumbai’s under-18s have been exposed to COVID19 and have antibodies against it, raising some hopes for levels of protection in that age group, a senior official said on Monday.

The figures came from a government survey in India’s financial capital conducted from April to mid-June, when the country was in the middle of a devastating second wave of the disease that left thousands dead.

Some experts have warned that a potential third wave could hit children, and Mumbai has joined other cities in building huge paediatric wards in preparation.

“This is good news because it shows that at least half the population below 18 is protected from COVID19, but we will make sure that we don’t let our guard down,” Suresh Kakani, Mumbai’s Additional Municipal Commissioner who oversaw the survey, said.

An estimated 1.5 million of Mumbai’s 12.8 million population are younger than 18, and none of them have been vaccinated as India has not approved any shots for children, he said.

Mumbai would repeat the survey every three months, he added.

Daily cases have been declining across the country over the past three weeks.

But several states that came in for criticism for how they handled the second wave have been sharing plans for how they would handle any third surge in infections.

On Monday, India reported 46,148 new COVID19 infections and 979 related deaths over the past 24 hours, data from the health ministry showed.

The country has reported a total of 30.27 million cases and 396,730 related deaths since the pandemic began.

Mumbai’s COVID Situation Is Improving – but Is the City Safe From More Surges?

Remarkably, the total number of infections Mumbai has seen since the pandemic began may be approaching the total number of residents in the city.

A boy suffering from COVID-19 stands outside his room at a school-turned care facility on the outskirts of Mumbai, May 24, 2021. Photo: Reuters/Francis Mascarenhas

Mumbai’s current COVID-19 wave is not over. But the city is in a much better position than it was six weeks ago. The case-load has fallen steadily. Daily cases averaged under 1,300 during the week ending May 24, just 13% of peak values in early April.

The number of daily deaths recorded has also been falling. It peaked at around 80 per day at the beginning of May and has dropped to around 50 per day during the week ending May 24. The drop is encouraging, but slower than expected from the drop in cases.

Plot: Murad Banaji

Looking at hospitalisations – while the use of so-called oxygen beds in the city has dropped sharply, the use of ICU and ventilator beds, needed for more critical patients, has fallen only slightly. The mortality crisis is not yet over, even though the city has now officially lost around one in every 900 of its residents to the disease.

Plot: Murad Banaji

The scale of the surge

The latest surge has so far added over 380,000 new cases and 3,200 new recorded deaths to Mumbai’s total. That amounts to over half of the city’s total cases and about 22% of recorded deaths. Deaths are still mounting, so the picture is incomplete. But the mismatch is interesting, and something we’ll come back to.

A difficult question is how many new infections have so far occurred during this surge. Estimates suggest that 20% to 45% of the city’s people were infected during this wave. Anything below 20% would imply a remarkable improvement in the detection of infections; anything above 45% would imply a very large drop in the fraction of infections resulting in a recorded death. Neither is impossible, of course.

Remarkably, the total number of infections Mumbai has seen since the pandemic began may be approaching the total number of residents in the city. This does not mean that almost everyone has been infected. It hints that reinfections could have been quite common, especially in the slums and during this wave.

What role have new variants of the virus played?

The speed and scale of the surge quite probably reflect the circulation of new variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Limited genome sequencing data means the detail is still unclear.

Up to May 24, the public repository GISAID held only 92 SARS-CoV-2 sequences collected in Mumbai during 2021. Almost all were collected in March or earlier; only nine were from early April. The majority were of the variant B.1.617 believed to be playing a key role in surges across India.

In fact, the majority of Mumbai’s sequences on GISAID involved the subtype B.1.617.1, whose properties we haven’t yet studied well. But this could be misleading: it is possible that the mix of variants in the city has changed over time. Travellers to the UK from Mumbai during late April tested positive for B.1.617.2 more often than for B.1.617.1.

B.1.617.2 is better studied, and is now known to be a highly transmissible variant of the virus, also able to cause infection fairly frequently in partially vaccinated individuals. This suggests it might also cause reinfections more easily than previous variants, although data on this is not available. So far, there is no evidence to indicate that B.1.617’s subtypes cause more severe disease.

Also read: For Strong Protection Against B.1.617.2 COVID, Need Two Covishield Doses: Study

The role of mitigation

What has brought cases down? The answer must involve a mix of two factors: mitigation and increasing immunity.

Let’s begin with mitigation. After some limited restrictions were introduced in late March, the city corporation ramped up efforts to slow disease spread in early April. The new measures included strict restrictions on gatherings, and shutting places of worship, restaurants, cinemas and non-essential shops.

Google mobility data suggests mobility started to fall in late March, then more rapidly in early April. By late April the fall had slowed, and mobility seemed to have risen back a little during May. The patterns are similar for Mumbai’s two districts.

Plot: Murad Banaji

Plot: Murad Banaji

It seems likely that the reduction in mobility reflects changes in behaviour that played an important part in cutting transmission. These also very likely accelerated the fall in cases after the peak.

Thinking more deeply about ‘immunity’

Aside from mitigation, increasing immunity must have played a part in bringing down cases. The surge itself, and some vaccination, have added to population-level immunity. Can we estimate how much?

Discussions around immunity in the context of COVID-19 tend to be too simple. Our immune responses may fail to stop an infection, but still keep us from falling badly ill. Previous infections or vaccination likely prevent severe disease in most people, symptomatic disease in many, and infection/transmission in fewer.

When thinking about hospitalisations, we would like to know how many people are vulnerable to severe disease. When thinking about outbreaks, we’d like to know what fraction of people may become infected and transmit the disease, whether or not they become seriously ill.

Also read: Herd Immunity for COVID-19 – a Straightforward Explainer

Complicating things further, timing, variants and vaccines all matter. Older infections provide weaker protection; some variants can more easily cause disease in people previously infected or vaccinated; and some vaccines are more effective against certain variants than others.

So, it is theoretically and practically difficult to put numbers on “how much” population immunity there is in a city. If Mumbai opened up suddenly, there is no convincing calculation to say there wouldn’t be another surge. For the moment at least, it should be more muted, but what about in six months’ time? We just don’t know.

A falling fatality rate

Most estimates of recent infections suggest Mumbai has seen fewer recorded deaths during this wave than expected from last year’s data. Bearing in mind that the picture is still incomplete, why might this be?

We should always assume that some COVID deaths fail to be recorded. But there are few reasons to believe that death undercounting is worse than last year, so this doesn’t explain the trend. It seems the fatality rate in the city may genuinely have fallen. Why could this be?

The most likely explanation: the combined effects of previous infections, especially in the slums, and some vaccination in the elderly, mean that more infections have been mild during this surge. This is speculative – but is consistent with a drop in the fraction of the elderly in the death toll following the vaccination drive, and with anecdotal reports of relatively few hospitalisations of slum residents during this wave.

What next for Mumbai?

Rapid vaccination must remain a priority to protect the city. According to the latest dashboard, only around 17% have had at least one vaccine dose, and only around 6% are fully vaccinated. The pace of vaccination has slowed, undoubtedly because of vaccine shortages. The elderly are still far from fully covered.

With vaccines in short supply, focusing on the most vulnerable still makes sense. This must include reaching vulnerable slum residents, and giving second doses on time: the latest data suggests that two doses of Covishield (the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine) are much more effective at preventing disease from B.1.617.2, than just one.

It is also key to keep an eye on mobility data. There is still quite a lot of transmission occurring, and the worry is that changes in behaviour could push it up again.

An important unanswered question: why have recorded deaths been slow to fall? Does this reflect reporting delays? Longer hospitalisations? Could disease have continued to spread in vulnerable populations even as transmission fell?

The city corporation no doubt holds data which could help answer these and other crucial questions. For an understanding of the latest wave, and for forecasting, it is crucial to have:

* Data on reinfections

* Data on infections in vaccinated people

* Up-to-date genome sequencing data

Making such data widely available would help keep the city one step ahead. We’d understand the degree to which infection and vaccination are protecting Mumbai from the variants in circulation. City administrations around the world could gain crucial insights by studying Mumbai’s long and harsh COVID-19 epidemic.

Murad Banaji is a mathematician with an interest in disease modelling.

At 3,876 New COVID-19 Cases, Mumbai’s Daily Tally at Lowest Since March 30

Earlier in the day, Dr Shashank Joshi, a member of the Maharashtra government’s COVID-19 task force, said Mumbai may have turned the corner in its fight against the pandemic.

Mumbai: Mumbai reported 3,876 new COVID-19 cases on Monday, the lowest daily count since March 30, while 70 more patients succumbed to the infection, the city civic body said.

According to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC)’s updated data, with the addition of 3,876 cases, the COVID-19 tally increased to 6,31,527, while the death toll jumped to 12,853.

As compared to Sunday, the metropolis has reported 1,666 fewer cases, but six more deaths. A day before, the financial capital had registered 5,542 new cases and 64 fatalities.

The city had witnessed 4,758 new cases on March 30 and after that it registered a sudden surge in infections. On April 4, Mumbai had added a record 11,163 cases and 10,000- plus infections on a couple of days in the current month.

The number of daily cases has been gradually declining in the last few days.

In the last 24 hours, Mumbai saw 28,328 COVID-19 tests, the lowest this month, taking the number of samples examined so far to 52,72,062, the data showed.

Also, 9,150 patients were discharged from hospitals during the day, pushing the number of recovered cases to 5,46,861, the civic body said.

With this, the tally of active cases has gone down to 70,373, it said.

Since the last few days, the number of discharged patients has been higher than the new COVID-19 cases.

As per the BMC data, Mumbai’s COVID-19 recovery rate has improved to 87%, while the infection growth rate has dropped to 1.09%.

The case doubling rate improved to 62 days, the civic body said.

According to the BMC, the number of active containment zones in slums and ‘chawls’ (old row tenements) stood at 104, while the city currently has 1,084 sealed buildings.

Earlier in the day, Dr Shashank Joshi, a member of the Maharashtra government’s COVID-19 task force, said Mumbai may have turned the corner in its fight against the pandemic.

The turnaround was due to the metropolis tackling the surge during the second COVID-19 wave with an “ATM strategy”, which is ‘Assess, Triage and Transfer, and Management’, he said.

Dr Joshi, an endocrinologist, told PTI that Mumbai may have hit the second wave peak and the flattening phase could have begun.

“During the first wave (last year), Mumbai used to hardly conduct 15,000 to 18,000 tests. However, during the second wave (which started around mid-February), the test numbers range between 40,000 and 50,000. Mumbai has passed the peak as cases are plateauing, but the plateau could be longer,” Joshi said.

(PTI)

Mumbai: Section 144 Imposed to Check Rising COVID-19 Cases

The order prohibits “presence or movement of one or more persons in public places or gathering of any sort”, an official said.

Mumbai: Mumbai police on Wednesday imposed section 144 of CrPC in the city, prohibiting the movement of people in public places and gatherings, to prevent the spread of COVID-19, an official said.

The prohibitory order, issued by a senior police official, says restrictions on the movement of residents for non-essential work will remain in force till July 15.

The order prohibits “presence or movement of one or more persons in public places or gathering of any sort”, the official said.

Police have prohibited gatherings of any sort, including at religious places subject to stipulations, he said.

The order said movement of one or more persons in areas designated as containment zones by the municipal authorities is prohibited, except for essential activities, the supply of essential goods and medical emergency.

Also read: Even After Updating ‘Backlog’ of Deaths, Maharashtra’s COVID-19 Data Is Fishy

Police have also prohibited the movement of one or more people in the city between 9 pm to 5 am, except for medical emergencies, the official said, adding emergency services, government and semi-government agencies and their officials on duty are exempted.

Establishments providing essential services like food, vegetables, milk supply, medical and grocery stores, hospitals, medicines, pharma and related establishments are also exempted, the official said.

Movement of one or more persons in the city for non- essential activities is prohibited between 5 am and 9 pm, with the exclusion of activities allowed by the state government and orders issued by competent authorities for the enforcement of COVID-19 guidelines, he said.

Watch | COVID-19 Daily Bulletin: New Delhi Overtakes Mumbai’s Caseload

Delhi’s cases passed 70,000 mark on Wednesday.

Around 16,700 new cases were reported in India in the past 24 hours. This is a record jump in terms of caseload for the country. With this, more than 4.7 lakh people have now contracted the virus in India. Of these, 2.7 lakh have recovered. More than 400 deaths were registered in this time period, taking the toll to around 14,900. Delhi’s caseload has now crossed the total tally of India’s financial capital, Mumbai. Delhi recorded 3,788 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday taking the total tally to 70,390. On the other hand, Mumbai currently has 69,528 COVID-19 cases.

Planning for Physical Distancing May Be Challenging, But it Could Solve India’s Housing Woes

Rethinking the metrics of affordable housing and their practical implications could also serve the purpose of increasing the overall quality of life, especially in lower income households.

By now, it is evident that India’s current housing conditions make it challenging to practice lockdown and self-quarantining effectively. For starters, our high population density and low open space per capita in urban areas make outdoor social distancing practically impossible.

Around 34% of India’s rural houses and about 27% of urban houses are congested, as indicated by a 2019 NSSO (National Sample Survey Office) study on housing conditions. Moreover, the World Health Organisation’s recommendation of using non-shared rooms and bathrooms (wherever possible) for self-quarantine is simply a luxury that many in India cannot afford. 

While India has taken some steps towards affordable housing, future housing design and urban policy should take lessons from the COVID-19 situation.

They must consider how housing conditions and better urban planning might improve the overall quality of life. Indian households often share basic facilities (including rooms, kitchens, and toilets), making indoor social distancing incredibly challenging.  

Four in ten Indian households use shared kitchens. Over half of the rest do not have separate water taps in their kitchens. A look at our sewage situation reveals that almost one-tenth of India, and specifically, 16.3% of urban India, lack exclusive access to a bathroom, and use shared facilities (NSSO, 2018).

For every ten households in India, three either have open drainage systems or none at all. This is a cause for concern in light of a recent study by the University of Stirling, which suggests that sewage could also play a role in increasing COVID-19 transmission risk.

Also read: Sustainable Housing Can’t Slip Under the Radar Once the COVID-19 Crisis Subsides

Even after weeks of lockdown, infections are rising and the doubling rate of infection is worrisome. Currently, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, and Gujarat have the highest numbers of cases in India, and among the highest daily increases in number of cases.

These states also have fairly high levels of household congestion. Data from the 2018 NSSO survey on housing conditions suggests that about 38% of houses in Maharashtra, 33% in Delhi, 32% of houses in Gujarat, and 30% of houses in Tamil Nadu are congested.

Alongside congestion and shared spaces, population density is another factor that complicates physical distancing. Consider, for instance, that in Maharashtra, a large number of people from the Dharavi region alone are infected. This is one of Asia’s largest slums, with a population density of over 270,000 people/sq km, and is several orders of magnitude higher than India’s average of just over 450/sq km. Most of India’s major cities, also among the most population dense in the country, are currently COVID-19 hotspots.

Also read: Covid’s Lockdown: Hell Hath No Fury Like a Landlord Scorned

This has been the case in many other parts of the world, such as New York City, where the population density is around 10,000/sq km. For comparison, the USA, on average, has a density of 36 people per sq km; Italy has 205; and the UK has around 275. 

India’s average house size is 46 square metres, even smaller than the average size of the smallest housing unit in NYC (around 58 sq m), and less than half the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) average of 100 sq m. This could further limit people’s ability to self-isolate within their homes, especially if household sizes are large and rooms are shared. India’s open space per capita is also quite low in some of its urban centres. It is 0.87 sq m per capita in Chennai and 1.24 sq m per capita in Mumbai. New York City and London, for comparison, have 26.4 sq m and 31.68 sq m per capita respectively. The WHO recommends at least 9 sq m, whereas the UN recommends 30 sq m per capita. 

Figure 1 Open space per capita in various cities; Source: Observer Research Foundation

Addressing household congestion and improving sanitation are already part of India’s Housing for All policies. While resolving these challenges in housing conditions is not possible during this pandemic, future housing guidelines and regulations could benefit from bearing such events in mind.

Having more tangible physical measures for a good quality of life in the context of affordable housing, and understanding how to operationalise these, should guide future policy. We also need to identify the challenges involved in doing so and devise strategies to overcome them. For instance, what would the minimum floor area per capita be, to maintain decent living conditions in affordable housing? Can we make land available to facilitate this, without further environmental destruction? How can we improve and increase urban open/green space per capita? 

Also read: Interview | Pandemic Has Impacted Affordable Housing Segment the Most: Sundaram Home Finance MD

Several studies across the world are currently trying to understand what this would entail, including the Sustainable Alternative Futures for India (SAFARI) project at the Center for Study of Science, Technology, and Policy. SAFARI indicates that India might need an affordable housing target that is as much as double the current estimated number in urban areas, to be able to meet its true housing shortage.

India might also need 50% more affordable housing than estimated in rural areas. This estimate is based on higher adjustments for existing houses ageing over time and becoming unfit to inhabit, changes in the size of a household, and on factors like congestion and minimum space requirements for a decent quality of life. This works out to a revised estimate of potentially 35 million more affordable houses than the current target of around 41 million, by 2022.

Rethinking these metrics and their practical implications could serve the dual purpose of increasing the overall quality of life, especially in lower income households.

It could also help improve overall health and hygiene in Indian living conditions. Careful planning could potentially contribute to improving our resilience to future infectious pandemics. It could also better protect the country’s most vulnerable, at least from risks aggravated by unsatisfactory housing conditions. 

Poornima Kumar is research analyst at CSTEP.

Their Village Sealed Off, Worli’s Small-Scale Fishers Lose Livelihood

The indigenous fishing community has also not received essential supplies, even as coastal reclamation work continues.

“We have no food or way to leave the koliwada (fishing village), but we can hear and see the shore being dumped with mud every day,” an indigenous fisher, or koli, from the Worli koliwada tweeted last week. His village had been sealed off after 10 people tested positive for COVID-19 on March 30, 2020.

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) had assured the community at the time of sealing them off that it would provide essential supplies. But after ten days without any supplies, the fisherfolk took to the social media requesting the city’s help. On April 10, the Ministry of Home Affairs included fishing, sale of fish and related activities in the essential commodities list, indicating some relief.

However, the Worli koliwada is still a ‘red zone’, which means the community’s members still have no way to earn a living nor feed themselves in the coming months. As the indigenous fisher community struggles, the coastal road reclamation and construction work, twenty meters away from the fishing village continues, day in and night.

India’s small-scale fishers have had restricted access to the shore across the country’s 7,516-km coastline during the nationwide lockdown. Small-scale fishers, a.k.a. artisanal or traditional fishers, are noted for their sustainable practices. They fish based on tidal patterns and the seasons, use small boats, fish for short periods and don’t make more than a few trips each time. The principles of physical distancing don’t clash with their fishing habits either, since most small-scale fishers operate solo or in small teams of two to five people. They live off a daily catch, for home as well as community consumption and local sale.

When the Worli koliwada was sealed off on March 20, state officials did so in the dead of night, without any notice period to brace for the aftermath. About 86 people were also quarantined. A week later, the first social media posts from community members appeared online, considering there was no other way for messages to leave or enter the koliwada. And after a massive response from several citizen groups, a Ketto donation page and suppliers ready to provide supplies the community needed, they received a meagre amount of goods from the state a few days later.

There was another problem.

In all this time, the BMC had also allowed the coastal road reclamation project work to continue only ten meters away from the koliwada. In December 2019, the Supreme Court stayed the Bombay high court’s order quashing the coastal road zone clearance granted for the project, and allowed construction work to continue but not other development activities. The apex court did hear applications in February 2020 demanding a stay based on claims that the BMC didn’t get clearance under the Wildlife Protection Act 1972 although it was supposed to.

Citizen groups in South Mumbai have also reported that the BMC has fast-tracked the construction work and that the project could in fact be completed before the court takes up the issue again. This is a threat to the koliwada because the work encroaches on the intertidal shore – in effect threatening, if not eliminating, their ability to catch fish and also endangering workers’ lives. The first of the ten people tested positive only five days after the lockdown began.

Construction workers form one of the many occupational groups most at risk of transmission of diseases during epidemics. However, contractors and the BMC have resumed reclamation work before the next Supreme Court hearing, and it appears that it will continue. In its official press releases, the BMC has called the reclamation work necessary, especially as pre-monsoon precautions. At the same time, Mumbai is perhaps the most affected city in India vis-à-vis the coronavirus epidemic, so unilaterally continuing reclamation work as well as not attending to the health, safety and wellbeing of both the workers and the fishers seems reckless.

Also Read: A Cruel Lockdown: Lessons From Relief Work in Mumbai

This said, the koliwada is evidently worse off because the fishers don’t have a way to make a living, and their futures are becoming more and more uncertain as their fishing grounds are being destroyed for a project that has no value to them and, indeed, will reportedly cater to only 1.25% of Mumbai’s transit population.

Small-scale fishers around the world are already reeling from a dearth of policy protection, political representation and poor documentation. Thus they are poorly represented, are losing fishing grounds and are being severely marginalised. Even now we are witnessing an indigenous community on the cusp of fading away, and must act quickly to prevent that from happening – as well as to restore their livelihoods and futures.

Sarita Fernandes is a coastal policy researcher and marine wildlife conservationist in Goa.

Sustainable Housing Can’t Slip Under the Radar Once the COVID-19 Crisis Subsides

For too long, development authorities across India have ignored the adverse impact of ‘densification’ and deplorable health and environmental conditions on people’s lives.

The COVID-19 pandemic has compelled us to critically review various long term measures that relate to a host of other matters with an objective of bringing about significant change.

One such matter that would require critical review and change is the state of housing that is intimately intertwined with the state of health and quality of life, particularly of the millions of working-class people and daily wage earners who live in slums.

As a matter of fact, dignified housing and conditions in which people live are an integral aspect of a sustainable health-care infrastructure. It is in this context that one can review the current state of housing, with reference to slums in particular, and discuss possible alternatives for the future.

Question of density and housing

For too long various development authorities across India have continued to ignore the adverse impact of densification on people’s lives. Density is a key aspect of housing and must be critically reviewed, particularly in the assessment of the state of housing for the poor and middle class.

In order to understand density and its impact on the quality of life and environment, we can consider the case of Mumbai, possibly the most densely populated city on earth, as an example. Any discussion regarding the state of housing in Mumbai will, hopefully, resonate with experiences in many other cities, thereby enabling dialogue across India.

The city of Mumbai has a total land area of 454 square km, out of which only 274 square km is considered habitable, with another 140 square km of natural areas and 40 square km area under airports, railways, defence and ports. A population of 13 million lives and works in this habitable area of 274 square km with a density of around 47,500 persons per square km (or 123,000 per/square mile). Of these 274 square km, only about 40% i.e. 110 square km is the approximate land area under residential occupation. Accordingly, the density in residential areas is about 118,000 persons per sq.km.

Also read: As Mumbai Seals Slums, Residents Face Struggle to Access Basic Necessities

Of the 13 million population of the city, over 6 million, without whom the city cannot function, live in congested slums, in deplorable health and environmental conditions, with no access to safe drinking water, amidst garbage pile-ups, overflowing drainage, inadequate sewage network, highly inadequate and substandard common toilets that seldom have water connections for use and maintenance.

In most instances, the 80-100 square feet one-room houses are cramped with six to ten people living in shifts. But, during a crisis, as in the current COVID-19 lockdown period, they are all bundled together for days and months. Such conditions would be fairly true for slums across major cities in India. In the case of Mumbai’s slums, besides the poor, a sizeable section of the middle class also resides in them as they simply cannot afford to buy houses that are available in the open market. The idea of social distancing in these congested settlements is indeed a tall order.

In the slums in Mumbai, these six million people live in a land area of 30 square km or 3000 hectares. The average density of the slums is 200,000 persons per square km or 2000 persons (400 tenements) per hectare. But, through the current state government policy for slums redevelopment, we witness the density in rehabilitation projects being raised to over three times, to about 6,500 persons (1300 tenements) per hectare— 25-30 storied high-rise buildings without open spaces and amenities that jostle with each other.

A woman sits on a ladder installed outside her house, during a nationwide lockdown in India to slow the spread of COVID-19, in Dharavi, one of Asia’s largest slums, during the coronavirus disease outbreak, in Mumbai, India, April 13, 2020. Photo: Reuters/Francis Mascarenhas

This is the result of an ill-conceived redevelopment scheme by the state government without assessment of the social, environmental and health consequences. A plan in which people do not matter, as maximum numbers of people are forced into the smallest possible land area without any upper limit.

As a result of such highly oppressive housing conditions, there is growing evidence of fatal lung diseases, besides mental depression and social tension, amongst people living in slums and in such slum rehabilitation buildings. Ignoring such consequences, the state government in Maharashtra, in an irresponsible way, has periodically kept increasing the FSI (Floor Space Index) for slums redevelopment from 2.0 to 2.5 to 3.0 and recently to 4.0, and even to 5.0 for difficult areas such as Dharavi, thereby pushing the density further to a highly untenable and dangerous level.

Time to discard FSI as a tool of planning

Across India, developments are regulated by Floor Space Index (FSI) or Floor Area Ratio (FAR) as a tool of planning. FSI is the ratio between the total area that can be built upon a specific area of land. In simple terms, if an FSI of four is available on a piece of land admeasuring 100 square metres, you can essentially construct four times the land area, or 400 square metres on that piece of land.

Also read: Indian Cities Have Been Reduced to Just Real Estate

The formulation of FSI as a tool of planning is rooted in the idea of tradability and maximum profit. FSI is fundamentally a financial model in the interests of real estate business, but tragically, runs contrary to human development interests—one example being the total disregard towards densification or the number of people who would reside in any particular area, that too without adequate amenities and open spaces.

As a result, various development works including housing, are considered a commodity rather than a social good. Accordingly, in the housing complexes for the poor and the lower middle class, houses are densely packed without adequate light, ventilation and privacy. The idea of the ‘commons’ which include amenities and open spaces is entirely overlooked, as witnessed in the slums redevelopment projects.

It should be realised that a given land area can have many more smaller houses, therefore more number of people, than the number of bigger houses that would be possible in the same land area, having lesser number of people. Therefore, in the larger interest of justice and equality, it is numbers of people that must form the basis of the development strategy for land use and housing, and the concept of FSI should be discarded.

Way forward

Sooner than later, it will become critical for various state governments to undertake comprehensive planning of slums land in their respective cities with a new parameter, based on density rather than FSI as a planning tool. Such an approach will have to be people-oriented and a more humane way of defining housing projects. A paradigm shift in the very conception and understanding of housing is urgently required, instead of insisting on an ill-conceived, unplanned, piecemeal, fragmented and disparate, project-based approach that is fuelled by the short-term business interest of builders and developers.

High-rise residential towers under construction are pictured behind an old residential building in central Mumbai. Photo: Vivek Prakash/Reuters

The current slum redevelopment program in most cities is leading to anarchic growth and further ‘slummification’ of the city—only the slums are moving skywards. Total and dedicated dependency of governments on free-market led development has been a failure, considering the past 30 years’ outcome, since 1991, the year of liberalisation when the government backed out of its commitment to being a welfare state.

The government’s expectation that markets will perform the work of the state is a myth that has been adequately exposed. As a matter of fact, it is the failure of the market in promoting social housing that has led to the proliferation of slums. In any case, builders and developers cater to just about 10-12% of the city population but keep clamouring for further concessions and financial support from the government. It is high time that governments get out of such a failed arrangement and resort to undertaking the responsibility of promoting social housing.

Also read: The Murky Underbelly of Sanitation During the Pandemic

In the case of slum land redevelopment, it will be necessary for the government to initiate comprehensive and integrated planning on a participatory basis – a role that they have abdicated under the guise of privatisation and their commitment to follow the path of neoliberal globalisation. Master planning of slum land in each city will enable the government to regulate a maximum sustainable density across different slum pockets, while enabling individual slum redevelopment to proceed independently within the framework of the respective city slums redevelopment master plans.

There is huge potential of generating additional housing stock through the redevelopment of slums, old buildings and neighbourhoods, including vast stretches of land that have been entrusted to various state housing development agencies.  Such comprehensive planning exercises would enable the enhancement of internal efficiency—health, environment, land use and density, and would present an opportunity to re-envision cities and towns on equal and just terms.

Once the COVID-19 emergency subsides there are chances that such issues will take a backseat and authorities will withdraw into the usual state of indifference and complacency, ignoring the much needed long term interventions that are required in order to achieve just and equitable development.

In the larger interest of housing for all, various governments and peoples movements can and should collectively and collaboratively focus on the many endemic social, political and environmental (including our attack on nature and the threat due to climate catastrophe) conditions that people are subjected to in their daily lives in the city.

Governments will have to guarantee reliable access to health care and housing for all. Otherwise, the resulting threats due to growing polarisation of people and communities, exclusion and deprivation, denial of access to dignified housing and amenities and, above all, the appalling conditions of living that are leading to immense suffering and ill-health, will further erode our current capacity and capabilities in dealing with progress, thereby destabilising cities further.

P.K. Das is a Mumbai based architect and housing rights activist.

In Photos | The Stillness of Mumbai’s Abnormal Quiet

Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus, Marine Drive and the inner streets are all quiet, transformed by the lockdown.

Mumbai is always buzzing, day or night. During the day, the streets are packed with traffic and pedestrians, rushing about. The suburban railway stations are crowded with commuters at all hours. The footpaths are taken over by hawkers and their customers.

At night too, the city is on the move, even if traffic is somewhat less. Night shift workers commute back home by train and bus. Not surprising, therefore, that Bombay is often known as the city that does not sleep.

The lockdown has transformed those busy streets. The concourse of Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus, the starting point of central railway suburb trains, is empty. The inner streets have not a soul to be seen. The Marine Drive promenade, the city’s favourite place to walk and enjoy the breeze and the sea, is without its walkers and romantic couples. It is an abnormal sight.

Award-winning photographer Sudharak Olwe, known for his images of cityscapes and marginalised workers and communities, set out to shoot the bare streets of Mumbai and also visit the slums, where groceries and other essential items do not reach. In Dharavi, people queued up to collect their rations. In the densely packed slums, social distancing is not always possible, but municipal workers and policemen were at hand to ensure there was order.

COVID-19: With No Food or Government Aid, Loom Workers in Bhiwandi Fear the Worst

Most of the six lakh workers who spin the yarn and make cloths in this textile town are migrants with meagre incomes. With work suspended and nowhere to go, they are desperate.

Bhiwandi: Each time someone new walks into the arterial lanes of Kondachiwadi basti at Bhiwandi, a large number of people immediately swarm around the person. Amid the commotion, desperate voices can be heard making myriad inquiries, all seeking the same answer. “Kaha se aaye ho, ration laaye ho kya? Kuch khaane ka intezaam kar sakte ho kya?” (Where have you come from? Have you got some ration for us? Can you arrange for some food here?)

The concept of “social distancing” is impractical when food stocks are running low and people are worried about their future.

It has been eight days since the Maharashtra government imposed a complete lockdown in the state as a precautionary measure to control the spread of the coronavirus. But this sudden announcement has had the worst impact on migrant labourers and daily wagers, virtually pushing the over six lakh migrant power loom workers in Bhiwandi towards starvation.

“We first listened to the chief minister (Uddhav Thackeray) and a day later to the Prime Minister (Narendra Modi) and decided to stay back. But now, we are left here with no food or aid from the government. We will all die of hunger even before the virus catches us,” says 50-year-old Mohammad Sajjad Ansari, despondently.

Also Read: In Sketches, Migrant Labourers’ Long, Long Journey Home

Since the lockdown, Ansari and six others – all from Madhubani district in Bihar – have been cooped up in a small seven square feet room. “We are all caged in this tiny room. Even if we try to step out to get some air, the police rain lathis on us. With no money, or food on our plate, it is difficult to stay here,” Ansari adds.

The decision to heed the government’s advice and staying put in Bhiwandi, over 30  kilometres from Mumbai, is proving calamitous for most labourers. The city of power looms is home to workers migrating from as far as Assam, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.

Every lane is dotted with big and small looms. The locals estimate that at least six lakh workers operate the over 15 lakh operational looms to spin yarn and make cloth. There are an additional one lakh daily wage workers who work as loaders and transporters at these looms.

Autorickshaws parked inside a godown. Photo: Sukanya Shantha

On March 21, as soon as CM Thackeray ordered the shutdown of workplaces until March 31, power looms in Bhiwandi immediately fell silent. “This was a momentary announcement, we thought. Something that would end in less than two weeks. We asked our workers to stay back and food was available to them,” shares Shadab, an owner of over 200-power loom machines. But two days later, all trains were shut down too. And on March 24, PM Modi announced an extended three-week lockdown of the entire country.

Soon after the announcement, several workers had tried to rush to the Kalyan railway station, which is 14 kilometres away. But trains and other transport had already stopped. With no transport available, they had to walk back to the looms.
The situation since then has only worsened and many fear the coming days will take an extreme turn if their most basic requirements like food and medicines are not take care of.

“If we stay here like this for one more week, there will be a food riot,” Sham Mohamed Islam, a 25- year-old labourer said.

Most workers have been working here for over a decade. They get paid for the work they complete. Labourers work double shifts, extending up to 16 hours, without a break and at the end of it, manage to make only a meagre sum of Rs 300-500. The shutdown has worsened the situation for the labourers as the loom owners have unanimously decided not to pay them until the curfew is lifted.

“No work for nearly a month is proving fatal for us. Our employers have informed us that money won’t come until the lockdown ends,”26-year-old Sadik Shaikh said. Shaikh’s agitation and anger are focused on PM Modi’s decision to lock the country down without thinking of those who can’t survive another day without work. “Modi’s decision to save the country is actually proving to be an order to starve us,” he says.

Shaikh, who is originally from a village in Kurnool district of Andhra Pradesh, has been working at the loom in Bhiwandi for nearly a decade. Like every year, he and five other colleagues went back home for the seasonal harvest. “We returned on March 18 and within three days, this drama unfolded,” Shaikh says.

Shaikh and his six co-workers from Kurnool are all living in a small room of eight square feet. They have got some dry wooden logs and have been cooking in that space since the past week. “We had carried a few kilos of rice and lentils on our way back. We have been cooking and eating what we have. This food will last us for another two days at best. But what should we do after that?” Shaikh asks.

Labourers from Karnool district in Andhra Pradesh. Photo: Sukanya Shantha

The economic slump has affected the power loom industry deeply and most loom owners have run up huge losses. Two decisions by the Centre – demonetisation and GST – have dealt a crippling blow for most loom owners and workers here. “Our business has drastically slowed down in the past decade. And such decisions only cripple us further. We are helpless, trying every bit to find some help for our workers. Unfortunately, it is not proving enough,” says 45-year-old Ishtiyaque Ahmed Ansari, who was recently forced to sell 106 power loom machines to a scrap dealer.

Ishtiyaque and some friends have started a relief camp for the workers here, providing cooked food and food kits to the needy persons.

Bhiwandi has always remained a neglected region. Even though it is just on the outskirts of Mumbai, it lacks basic amenities. Sanitation, local transport and health services are all ailing. Almost 80% of Bhiwandi’s population is made up of migrants. Most of them come from the lower caste Muslim (Pasmanda) communities like Momin or Qureshi. These workers, even after spending several decades in the town are considered “outsiders” and the civic administration has largely neglected them.

Auto-rickshaw driver Hafis Shaikh has been selling vegetables since the lockdown to support his family. Photo: Sukanya Shantha

As soon as the lockdown came into effect, loom owners who could afford it provided some extra payment to their workers. Some even tied up with the local mess and requested that their workers be provided food on credit until the end of the month.

Most men work for 8-10 months and return to their families for the remaining period. Even though they spend a major part of the year in the looms here, all their documents, even their ration cards are registered on their native addresses.

Power looms are a male-oriented workspace, where labourers from North India travel to Bhiwandi for work. They live in a group, in a very small room. They all depend on mess services for food and have no space to cook.

Also Read: As India’s Lockdown Enters Second Week, Three Big Questions Still Remain

Almost all mess services have decided to stop serving food.

“How long can we really feed others when we ourselves don’t have the money to buy food grains?” asks Mohamed Israr, who has been running a mess service which feeds over 200 workers.

Most labourers are also worried about their families back home. Thirty-two-year-old Mahesh says he hasn’t been taking calls from his wife. “My father, wife and four children depend on my earnings. If I don’t send money, they won’t have food there. My wife has been making anxious calls every day and I don’t have the heart to even tell her that I am surviving here on dry rotis and water,” Mahesh says, as his eyes welled up.

Mahesh and Sanjay, two labourers from Maharajganj district in Jharkhand have been stuck in Bhiwandi without any earning or food. Photo: Sukanya Shantha

Mahesh says he is preparing himself for the worst. Starvation, violence, mass exodus: desperation can push a man to do anything, he says. “But for each life lost, only Modiji is responsible,” he says. “After all, he asked us to all stay back.”