Tag: Marine Le Pen

Did Anyone Really Win the French Election?

The challenge going forward will be for France’s political elites to channel a high degree of politicisation into institutions that were designed for a different political universe. Failing that, the next electoral cycle will have even fewer winners than this one. 

When French president Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament on June 9, 2024, he took the French and European political classes completely by surprise. Even his own advisors were wrong-footed. His decision appeared to be a catastrophic miscalculation: the far-right had done extremely well in the European elections, and most people thought that they would take advantage of this momentum to secure a large number of seats in parliament, possibly an absolute majority.

A month later, as the dust settles on a frenetic electoral cycle, the French political landscape looks like a bomb site. The much-trailed far-right victory never materialised, held off by a massive “republican front”. Instead, voters gave the largest number of seats to a left-wing alliance, closely followed by Macron’s own party and allies. 

Nevertheless, the far-right made gains, and this has left the French parliament finely balanced between a left bloc, a centrist bloc, and a far-right bloc. In most European countries, this issue could be managed through coalitions, but the French electoral system is designed to deliver large governing majorities, not fragmented and divided party squabbling. With the standard political reference points thoroughly scrambled, everyone – including the voters – seem dazed and confused. 

The question, then, is: did anyone really win the French election?

For the far-right, the answer is probably no. Marine Le Pen and her prime minister-in-waiting had set up their party, the Rassemblement National (RN), for victory. They secured an electoral alliance with part of the centre-right, and the polls had them in first place, winning between 200 and 300 seats. They dreamed of an absolute majority of 289 seats or more, which would have allowed them to implement their populist and anti-immigrant programme. They wanted Macron to be the first leader in modern French history to swear in a far-right prime minister.

But the final result was a disappointment. Parties and voters across France mobilised against the RN. Candidates dropped out after the first round to ensure tactical voting against the far-right, and voters themselves turned out in large numbers to express their concern about the possibility of a far-right government. Across the two rounds, the turnout was the highest for a legislative election since the early 1980s. The end result was that the RN captured 126 seats, a modest increase on the 89 seats they won in 2022. 

Also read: France Dodges a Bullet (For Now) But Sinks in Uncertainty

Already, the recriminations have begun. Marine Le Pen has gone back to railing against an electoral system that, she believes, is rigged against the RN. This is not entirely untrue: the two-round electoral system was indeed designed to suppress the political extremes. But the reality is that a majority of French people do not want an RN government, and they used the electoral tools at their disposal to stop it from happening. The far-right will gain credibility and cash from their good performance in this election, but they are still a long way from power.

As for Macron and his allies, they have emerged from these elections chastened but not obliterated. With 168 seats, they are the second force in parliament. A coalition with parts of the moderate left or the moderate right might just hold in a fractious parliament, but it is unlikely to last very long.

One thing is clear, however: this is no personal victory for Macron. He remains a profoundly divisive figure, even more so after his shock dissolution, and his MPs were only saved by the fact that many left-wing candidates withdrew to give them the best chance of winning. His centrist bloc is in tatters, and, in the days since the election, there have been rumours that it could collapse altogether with mass defections to other parties.

Macron said he wanted “clarification” from these elections, but he has got the opposite. The parliament is more splintered than any other since the 1950s. This makes sense. Since 2017, Macron has been trying to refashion the French political landscape by breaking the stranglehold of the left and the right. But this has created an ungovernable country and exposed the dysfunctionality of France’s political institutions. 

Finally, there is the left. On paper, they are the winners of this electoral cycle. Their hastily concocted alliance – the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) – came first with 182 seats. By any measure, this is an impressive result. The left has not won a national election since 2012, not least because a large swathe of its moderate electorate shifted its allegiance to Macron in 2017. The fact that a motley crew of Trotskyists, left radicals, socialists, social-democrats and greens was able to stick together and remain relatively disciplined for the duration of an electoral campaign is worthy of mention. 

Moreover, the left has, for the first time, been able to channel a strong French anti-fascist reflex into a more positive platform for change. Left-wing voters were not simply voting against the RN, although this is what scared them the most; they were also voting for a radical social and economic programme. 

Also read: The Past, Present and Future of France’s Self-Inflicted Far-Right Surge

Except that, in a political system that works only with absolute majorities, the left is essentially powerless. It will not be able to govern alone, and it will certainly not have a majority to pass its key legislative innovations. And this assumes that the alliance will hold, when, in fact, the parties that make up the NFP have quite different positions on both domestic and geopolitical questions. 

There are many possible ways out of this impasse. Macron could dissolve parliament again, but not for at least a year. The left could form a government with the centrist bloc agreeing not to vote it down. The centrist bloc could look to form a “grand coalition” of the kind that has periodically ruled Germany in recent decades. There might even be a radical change in the electoral system. 

The problem is that none of these solutions is easy to implement. They all require a fundamental change in the way the French and their representatives do politics. These latest elections confirm that the French have strong views about politics, that they understand what is at stake, and that they do not want the far-right in power (yet). But they do not immediately suggest that the French are ready to think differently about how they are governed. 

The challenge going forward will be for France’s political elites to channel a high degree of politicisation into institutions that were designed for a different political universe. Failing that, the next electoral cycle will have even fewer winners than this one. 

Emile Chabal is Professor of Contemporary History at the University of Edinburgh and the author of France, a short introduction to French history since 1940.

French Say ‘Non’ to Far-Right But a Messy Coalition Government Is Likely

Within a month, the French have voted three times. Never before has the far right done so well despite its ultimate defeat.

Today’s French elections’ results are everything except what predictions had forecast.

Only days ago, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party was tipped to win. But this weekend it became the clear loser of these French National Assembly elections.

The far right National Rally is coming third, behind Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition in second. And in first place, somewhat against the odds, is the three-week-old left-wing alliance the New Popular Front.

This is a major twist in the roller coaster that French politics has been since June 9 when Macron called a snap election. Macron, who will serve as president until 2027, now faces a turbulent period of government.

Results are still coming in, and will for another few hours. However, the New Popular Front is tipped to win 177 to 192 seats, Macron’s alliance 152 to 158 seats, and the National Rally 138 to 145 seats. Only a week ago polls were predicting 200 to 260 seats for the National Rally and a decimated Centrist coalition. The latter certainly did better than expected, so did the moderate right of the Les Républicains party, with 63 to 67 seats in the new house.

However, the results mean that no party will likely be able to form a parliamentary majority on its own, and France is heading for what will likely be a turbulent coalition government.

Overall, this election is a significant victory for the left. However, the New Popular Front is unlikely to be able to deliver on its key electoral promises, contrary to what divisive hard-left populist Jean-Luc Mélanchon claimed in a victory speech he gave on behalf of La France Insoumise, the lead party within the New Popular Front coalition.

Why will the coalition that came first not be able to form a government on its own?

The French parliamentary system under the Fifth Republic was designed for two large blocs: the moderate right and the moderate left, with a small centre in the middle and even smaller extremes on the far left and far right. This is how it’s been working since 1958, with only two exceptions in over six decades: President Valéry Giscard D’estaing (1974-1981) and President Macron (since 2017), two centrists presidents who took the nation by surprise.

Today, however, the situation is unheard of with three major coalitions very close to one another in the French lower house. None will be able to form a government on their own: they simply do not have the numbers. To achieve a majority in the French lower house, a coalition needs 289 of the 577 MP seats. Even today’s winner – the New Popular Front – is far from this magic number.

So, how do you govern France with no leading majority coalition?

In theory, any French government must have the support of the lower house – the National Assembly – in order to govern effectively and pass legislation. If a majority of MPs do not support the government, the government falls and a new government is constituted from that majority.

With today’s results, potential crossbenchers have multiplied in the French lower house, creating what is likely to be France’s most unstable political landscape since the French Fourth Republic that went through 22 governments within 12 years, between 1946 and 1958.

That being said, France’s next government will be left-leaning. It is unclear for now whether it will be uncompromisingly left or simply mildly labour – this will depend on how elected members of the new house decide to work with one another and transform election coalitions into government coalitions.

What is clear, however, is that the New Popular Front will need to broker a deal with Macron’s coalition if it wants to govern and soften its agenda of reforms. The problem is that the most radical fringe of the New Popular Front (populist left-wing party La France Insoumise) does not wish to work with Macron, which they have spent the last two years detesting loudly.

Although it is victorious today, the New Popular Front may very well implode, shortly or in a few months. Macron still has enough MPs to assemble a motley coalition spanning from the moderate labour of the Socialist Party and the Greens to the most moderate members of Les Républicains. But the Socialist Party is initially likely to try to work with its new unexpected ally of the France Insoumise (far left) to deliver a more left wing agenda and act as a power broker between the hard left and Macron’s centrists.

In most other European countries, today’s results would not be an issue. Italy, Belgium and Germany for example are used to having coalition governments in office.

France does not know how to do this. Its institutions are not designed for such types of government precisely because Charles De Gaulle wanted to avoid coalition government when he drafted the Constitution of the Fifth French Republic under which France is still operating.

Besides institutions, French political culture is a little more sectarian and flamboyant by tradition, and collaboration is seen as a sin and a betrayal rather than a virtue. If the left and Macron’s centre are not able to collaborate for at least 12 months (the minimum constitutional delay for a new election), they can be sure that they will pave the way for the National Rally to win the next election as a result of popular exasperation.

What do the results mean for Europe and the rest of the world?

For now, and after much upheaval, very little is likely to change with regard to French foreign policy, regardless of the government that will emerge in the coming days or weeks.

This is because although the National Rally has increased its MPs in the house – a small victory within a bigger defeat – the other parties are generally pro-European and pro-Ukraine. They are divided on internal politics, but much less so on foreign policy. French sovereignty, nuclear deterrence, multilateralism will remain keystones of French foreign policy.

One notable difference with the former Macron government is that with a larger left in the lower house, pressure on Israel to stop the war in Gaza is likely to increase.

A democracy in crisis?

These elections have clearly shown that the French are unhappy with their political class, despairing of unresponsive centralised state services that seem to work for forms and permits rather than for the people, tired of waiting weeks and sometimes months to get a doctor’s appointment in rural areas, tired of restrictive green legislation they are not consulted about. The yellow vest movement was a violent eruption of frustrations that are now being voiced at the polling booth.

France’s type of democracy is in crisis and its next government is unlikely to resolve structural issues and practical problems that plague French peoples’ everyday life, because such issues cannot be fixed overnight.

Within a month, the French have voted three times. Never before has the far right done so well despite its ultimate defeat. Whether this was a vote sanction (a vote used to protest, rather than to show support to a political program) or a genuine move toward the far right, these results remain a warning that the French are longing for change.The Conversation

Romain Fathi, Senior Lecturer, School of History, ANU/Chercheur Associé at the Centre d’Histoire de Sciences Po, Australian National University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Past, Present and Future of France’s Self-Inflicted Far-Right Surge

This is the first time a far-right party is in a position to win a legislative election and come to power in France since the Vichy regime.

The first round of the French legislative elections has thrown the results that many had feared and predicted. The far-right party National Rally (formerly known as National Front) and its allies emerged first, bagging a third of the votes. The New Popular Front, an alliance of 25 left political formations, comes second with 28%. President Macron’s formation, Ensemble (‘Together’), is a distant third with 21% of the votes. 

These results mark a substantive improvement for the National Rally (NR), which increased its vote share from 18.7% two years ago in the previous legislative election. It also improves on its recent performance in the European election of last May, where it scored 31%. 

These results mark a historic shift in the French far-right’s performance for three reasons: First, the National Rally’s performance is compounded by a much higher participation:  68% against 47% in the first round of the 2022 legislative election and 51.5% in the European election. This means that the participation surge was driven as much by the increase in the popularity of the RN than by the democratic will to resist its rise. 

Second, RN candidates came first in 297 of the 577 seats of the National Assembly across the territory. The NR, historically more confined to France’s North-East and South-East regions, is now a truly national political force. 

Third, this result pushes the far-right to the gates of power for the first time since World War 2 and their participation in the Vichy collaboration regime. While the peculiarities of the French electoral system do not guarantee a majority to the NR next week, there is a distinct possibility that the French far-right may form France’s next government. 

The NR’s performance in the recent European election prompted President Emmanuel Macron to announce a snap election three weeks ago. This constitutionally un-required decision shocked many, including his prime minister and cabinet, who had not been consulted. Speculation abounds on the reasons that prompted Macron’s unilateral decision. Whatever these may have been, the plan backfired.

Emmanuel Macron. Photo: Instagram/elysee

The second round of the election will occur next Sunday, July 7. In the French system, candidates who secure 12.5% of the registered voters in their constituency qualify for the second round. When participation is low, two candidates usually qualify, ensuring the winner gets at least 50% of the votes. When participation rises, however, it becomes more likely for a third candidate to qualify, leading to a triangular contest. In that case, the winner takes it all, even if they do not reach the majority threshold. In the present context, this latter configuration favours the NR, whose candidates engaged in a triangular context may need to be ahead of their competitors to win seats.  

In 2022, there were only eight triangular contests in a low-turnout election. This year, there could be theoretically triangular contests in more than 300 seats, given the distribution of votes. This is a theoretical number because third-ranked candidates can leave the race and call their voters to support the candidate who is most likely to defeat the far-right candidate. This ‘Republican Front’ system has historically enabled French parties to keep the far-right at bay in parliamentary elections. The few seats the NR successfully won in the past were in triangular contests where non-far-right parties and candidates failed to organise vote transfers.  

Unclear messaging

Political parties’ instructions are key to candidates’ decision to stay or leave the race. Upon the announcement of the results, the National Popular Front clearly declared that all its third-ranked candidates would desist from the second round and called their voters to support the non-far-right candidate in their respective constituencies. 

On the other hand, President Macron and his prime minister chose a more ambiguous language to call voters to defeat the far-right. The prime minister spoke about the ‘moral duty’ to prevent the far-right from obtaining a majority but fell short of instructing all its third-rankers to desist from the second round. President Macron spoke about building a ‘broad and clearly democratic and republican union’ against the far-right in the second round. Still, it offered no detail on what this union could or should look like – neither clearly instructed their voters to transfer their votes to stronger far-right competitors to retain their pivot position. 

‘Vote New Popular Front to change everything.’ Paris, May 2024. Photo: G. Verniers

Beyond an attempt to remain politically relevant, this hesitancy can be explained by Macron’s party’s detestation of one of the significant components of the New Popular Front, La France Insoumise (Unbowed France), led by Socialist Party dissident Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Unbowed France has emerged as France’s main opposition from the left over the past few years. They have been relentlessly criticising Macron’s policy and monarchic style of government. As a result, Macron’s party has been drawing a false equivalence between the left and the far right. This posture prevents many of its leaders today from calling for an effective democratic alliance against the far-right. 

Ever since his election in 2017, President Macron has benefited from vote transfers in the second round of elections, notably from the left, to defeat the far-right. The decline of the traditional left (Socialist Party) and right parties (the Republicans) made him the most likely candidate to stand against the National Rally. However, these voters and the parties that represent them obtained very little in return regarding policy or power sharing. Macron has effectively governed as if his agenda had received majority support from voters, while many voted for him to obstruct the far-right. As a result, many voters are now tired of lending their vote to President Macron and calling on him to return the favour, which he and his party are not inclined to do. 

These tensions explain why the mechanics of second-round elections and triangular contests have become somewhat gripped. In 2022, failure to establish ‘cordons sanitaires’ across all seats led to the far-right winning 89 seats in the National Assembly, a historical performance. As of this moment, there are still 165 triangular contests scheduled. Candidates have until Tuesday (July 2) to declare their intention to run or desist.

This is all to say that if institutional arrangements are still, in theory, favouring non-far-right parties, political tensions accumulated over the past seven years are likely to help the far-right to increase its presence in the National Assembly. 

Why is this important?

First, these results matter for historical reasons. As mentioned earlier, this is the first time a far-right party is in a position to win a legislative election and come to power in France since the Vichy regime. The National Rally may deny today its filiation with the collaborationist regime, its pro-colonialism stance, and its ties with revisionist historians and known racists and antisemites. The reality is that it has never shed its adhesion to fundamental markers of the European far-right: defensive nationalism or the constant preoccupation with the defence of French national identity against its enemies, both interior and exterior; a biological conception of the nation (jus sanguinis versus jus soli) that would lead to transforming the rules of acquisition of French citizenship; an obsession for order and security over the protection of individual rights. 

Voting during the snap elections in France. Photo: X/ @EmmanuelMacron

This leads them to hold a hard stance on immigration, to denounce the failure of immigrants – mainly Arabs and Muslims – to assimilate into French culture and values, to falsely pose immigration as a threat to France’s social security regime, to oppose the forces of cosmopolitanism and globalisation, to oppose European institutions and integration and to adopt a protectionist stance on economic matters. 

Second, the arrival to power of the far-right in France would mark a shift in France’s stature in Europe that would have ripple effects well beyond its borders. Over the past few years, the far-right has progressed across Europe and the world, feeding on fears, crises, and uncertainties, pitting citizens against other designated categories of citizens and foreigners. A victory of the far-right in France would embolden the far-right across Europe. It would also consolidate its status of the National Rally as the leading far-right formation in Europe, a position it already assumes in the European Parliament alongside other parties.  

And third, regarding French politics, it is safe to assume that Macron’s presidency is now effectively over, two years ahead of the next presidential election. Regardless of the configuration that will emerge from the second round, these elections have been the strongest signal of rejection he has faced since his rise in national politics ten years ago. 

Theoretically, a coalition could be formed if no party obtains a majority of their own. However, this word does not (yet) fit into France’s political vocabulary. New political forms would have to be invented between deeply divided political actors. In all probability, his formation will lose control of the government, leading to some form of cohabitation (cohabitation regimes usually lead to a division of labor between the president and the government. The former tends to centre on foreign policy and engagements while losing grip on domestic matters). 

Seven years ago, Macron attempted to create a new political form, a new centrist way, a synthesis of the centre-left (where he comes from originally) and the centre-right (where he effectively governs). In effect, his success was built on the ruin of traditional parties and the fear of the rise to power of the far-right. He failed to take advantage of France’s shifting political ground to create a new political party. Instead, he offered France a lonely exercise of power backed by a dwindling parliamentary majority. This failure to capitalise on the decline of mainstream parties and the adoption by his government of some of the far-right’s pet themes, starting with immigration and order – contributed to the normalisation of the far-right in France. 

Gilles Verniers is Karl Loewenstein Fellow and Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science at Amherst College. Views are personal. 

Geert Wilders: Far-Right Populist Wins Big in Dutch Election

Often referred to as the Dutch Trump, Geert Wilders is anti-Islam, anti-immigrant and anti-European Union.

With 98% of the votes counted on Thursday, Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) won 37 of the 150 seats in the Dutch parliament.

The populist party was well ahead of a joint Labor-Green bloc with 25 seats and the conservative People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte with 24 seats.

Wilders’ victory is expected to have far-reaching consequences in the Netherlands and Europe. The anti-EU politician has vowed to halt all immigration, slash Dutch payments to the union and block the entrance of any new members, including Ukraine.

How long will a new Dutch government take to form?

In his victory speech, Wilder said: “We want to govern and… we will govern.”

Once all the votes from Wednesday’s election have been counted, party leaders will have to negotiate the makeup of the next governing coalition. With multiple parties, and with the PVV in the lead, the horse-trading could take several months.

A coalition with the VVD, and the NSC party of centrist lawmaker Pieter Omtzigt would have 81 seats combined, more than the required 76.

However, it is not clear Wilders will be able to garner the necessary support to form a workable government. Before the vote, the leaders of the three other top parties had said they would not serve in a PVV-led coalition.

After the 2021 election, it took more than 271 days, or nine months, for a four-party arrangement to come together.

Although it is the tradition, there is no guarantee that the party that wins the most seats will end up delivering the prime minister. Rutte will remain in a caretaker role until a new government is installed, likely in the first half of 2024.

Once the coalition makeup is agreed upon, the parties sign a coalition agreement and the new government is tasked with setting out its plans in parliament, followed by a vote of confidence.

Far-right politicians in Europe congratulate Wilders

Wilders’ party’s stunning election performance drew praise from nationalist and far-right European politicians. “The winds of change are here! Congratulations to Geert Wilders on winning the Dutch elections!” said Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who leads the Rassemblement National party, posted on X: “Congratulations to Geert Wilders and the PVV for their spectacular performance in the legislative elections which confirms the growing attachment to the defense of national identities.”

Italian far-right leader and deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini also congratulated Wilders. “Congratulations to our friend Geert Wilders, leader of the PVV and historic ally of the League, for this extraordinary electoral victory. A new Europe is possible.”

Anxiety about the election results is growing

However, some also expressed trepidation over the election outcome. Frans Timmermans, leader of the Green/Labor left-wing bloc, said: “Democracy has spoken, now it’s time for us to defend democracy, to defend the rule of law. We have to make a fist against exclusion, against discrimination.”

“The distress and fear are enormous… Wilders is known for his ideas about Muslims and Moroccans. We are afraid that he will portray us as second-class citizens” said Habib El Kaddouri, head of the Dutch organization representing Dutch-Moroccans.

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said Wilders’ election victory was a consequence of “all the fears that are emerging in Europe” over immigration and the economy.

Who is Geert Wilders?

Often referred to as the Dutch Trump, Geert Wilders‘ anti-Islam, anti-immigrant and anti-EU message seems to have finally swept him to first place at the polls.

From calling Moroccans “scum” to holding competitions for cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed, Wilders has built a career from his self-appointed mission to stop an “Islamic invasion” of the West.

He has remained defiant despite brushes with the law – he was convicted for insulting Moroccans – and death threats that have meant he has been under police protection since 2004.

Born in 1963 in southern Venlo, close to the German border, Wilders grew up in a Catholic family with his brother and two sisters. His mother was half-Indonesian, a fact Wilders rarely mentions.

Wilders entered politics in 1998 in the Liberal VVD party, before beginning a one-man faction in parliament and then forming the far-right PVV in 2006.

This article was originally published on DW.


Giorgia Meloni – The Provocateur Set To Become Italy’s First Far-Right PM Since Mussolini

Her likely ascent comes at a time of national fragility for Italy, which is wracked by economic woes, spiralling inflation and an immigration crisis.

In the autumn of 1922, Benito Mussolini, the ambitious and charismatic founder of the Fascist Party, became Italy’s youngest prime minister – seizing power in a march on Rome that ushered in a dark period of totalitarian rule.

A century on, Italy looks set to get its first far-right leader since Mussolini’s body was strung up for all to see at the end of World War II. On September 25, 2022, voters are widely expected to elect as prime minister Giorgia Meloni, the leader of Fratelli d’Italia, or Brothers of Italy – a party whose lineage traces back to the rump of Mussolini’s fascists.

Many Italians and Europeans are understandably worried. Her likely ascent comes at a time of national fragility for Italy, which is wracked by economic woes, spiralling inflation and an immigration crisis. It also poses uncomfortable questions over the idea of European identity and unity. Moreover, it is a symptom of the political malaise in Italy and of the winds that have seen populist right-wing leaders gain support around the world.

Who is Giorgia Meloni?

Meloni has been accused of being a political provocateur. A proud nationalist, her policy stances stress anti-immigration positions and the protection of Italy from “Islamisation.” In contrast, she presents herself as the defender of traditional family values, politicising Christianity and motherhood as the cornerstones of the authentic Italian national identity. In a 2019 speech, she explained: “I am Giorgia. I am a woman, I am a mother, I am Italian, I am a Christian” – a rhetorical flourish that went viral, even being turned into a disco remix.

But Meloni is also a political chameleon. She changes strategy when it is politically advantageous to do so. In her youth, she openly admired Mussolini and considered him a good politician. But asked in the run-up to the election if she agreed that the fascist leader was bad for Italy, she said “yes.”

Over the years, she has courted leaders deemed by many to be ultra-nationalist, such as Vladimir Putin of Russia, Viktor Orbán of Hungary and Marine Le Pen of France. Yet she has also tried to position herself as aligned with the conservatism of the British Conservative Party and the Republican Party in the US.

She has of late tried to distance herself from prior support for the strongmen of Russia and China and to reemphasise her willingness to patriotically serve her country.

Marine Le Pen, French far-right leader, in Paris, France, April 24, 2022. Photo: Reuters/Yves Herman

Fratelli d’Italia’s rise to power

The ploy has seemingly worked.

The far-right alliance of Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia and like-minded parties Lega and Forza Italia are on course to win an absolute majority in the Parliament. But it is Meloni’s party that has stood out, with polls showing it is set to win around a quarter of all votes.

It marks a remarkable rise to power for Fratelli d’Italia. In the course of the past four years, the party’s polling numbers have been steadily growing from a little over 4% in 2018 to over 25% in 2022. The trajectory suggests that the party has either shrugged off its historical links to fascism or that many Italians simply don’t care.

Fratelli d’Italia is a descendant of the Italian Social Movement party, formed by Mussolini supporters after World War II. Meloni has tried to put distance between the lineage, declaring that the Italian right considers fascism to be confined to Italy’s history.

Meloni has also exploited national sentiments of insecurity and anxiety, caused by the multiple crises the country has faced in the last couple of years. These include the COVID-19 pandemic that hit Italy particularly hard and the still-unresolved major humanitarian crises caused by mass migration across the Mediterranean, with Italy being the main receiving country of migrants heading to Europe. Italy is also facing rising inflation and an ongoing energy crisis, driven by Russia’s war in Ukraine and Putin’s strategy of weaponizing Russia’s gas supply to the European Union.

Faced with these crises, Meloni has positioned herself as the person to “rescue” Italy. History has proved that in times of precarity, charismatic ultra-nationalist leaders tend to do well.

With a familiar formula of putting Italy “first,” Meloni’s euroskepticism, xenophobia and Islamophobia – repackaged as patriotism – have gained popularity among Italians.

Out of the chaos of coalition collapse

But the success of Fratelli d’Italia is not all about Meloni. The flip side of her success is the failure of other parties and the chaos of a government collapse that affected many of the parties running against her.

The snap election in Italy followed the resignation of Prime Minister Mario Draghi, an internationally admired economist nicknamed “Super Mario” for his impressive handling of the eurozone crisis as the head of the European Central Bank.

Draghi presided over a wide coalition but was forced to resign in July 2022, amid a worsening economic and political crisis that saw some coalition partners turn against the prime minister.

Italy has often struggled with its political leadership. The country’s political system all but ensures government by coalition. But that often means rule by a group of parties, whose agendas and visions may be drastically different – sometimes almost mutually exclusive. And the collapse of Draghi’s wide coalition has tainted many parties across the political spectrum, including the once-popular 5-Star Movement.

On top of this, there have been individual failures of the parties challenging Meloni in the election. This has included cases of corruption, with the former leader of the Democratic Party – and later the centrist Italia Viva – Matteo Renzi being charged with illegal party financing.

Meanwhile, failed attempts to forge a successful centre-left coalition to challenge the right-wing bloc have failed, with an alliance falling apart just days after being formed.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi addresses the Senate ahead of a confidence vote for the government after he tendered his resignation last week in the wake of a mutiny by a coalition partner, in Rome, Italy July 20, 2022. Photo: Reuters/Guglielmo Mangiapane

Ready to govern?

The political parties gaining from this political mess have largely been on the right. In alliance with Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia are the euroskeptic, anti-immigrant Lega and Forza Italia – the party of 85-year-old former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

But while Forza Italia and Lega had been part of Draghi’s coalition, Meloni has been able to run on a campaign that is unblemished by association to that failed government.

Meloni is also symptomatic of an emerging European political climate that has seen growth in support for hard-right politicians such as Marine Le Pen in France and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.

Meloni has run under a campaign slogan of “Pronta a governare” or “Ready to govern!”

The big question now is whether Italy is ready for Meloni as prime minister.The Conversation

Julia Khrebtan-Hörhager, associate professor of Critical Cultural & International Studies, Colorado State University and Evgeniya Pyatovskaya, PhD. Candidate in Communication, University of South Florida.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Emmanuel Macron Stares At Difficult Second Term After Setback in French Parliament Polls

The stunning blow to Macron’s centrist alliance means French policy enters a period of uncertainty requiring the president to seek power-sharing, unknown in France since 1988.

French President Emmanuel Macron (44) was reelected in April with 59% of the vote, with Marine Le Pen second and Jean-Luc Melanchon third.

But after the recent elections for the National Assembly, the chairs are rearranged: While Macron’s centrist alliance (Ensemble) came first, securing 245 seats out of a total of 577, it fell far short of the 289 seats needed for the absolute majority it enjoyed five years ago, when parliament was a rubber stamp during Macron’s first tenure.

The newly elected parliament features three, rather than two, blocs: Macron’s centrists; NUPES, a left alliance plus the Greens under hard-left Melenchon; and the far-right under Le Pen. NUPES will be the main opposition with 131 seats, and at the other end of the political spectrum, Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party with 89 seats and is in third place, affording it considerable weight.

French politics have changed, with the traditional right-wing and left-wing parties disintegrating, the Socialists and Centre-Right now reduced to minor roles and the once-powerful city mayors a pale shadow of the force they were. In the vacuum, Macron during his first term created a new political movement but with no party now capable of winning a majority – without the authority of endorsement by the voters.

Also read: Macron Faces Tough Battle for Control of Parliament as France Votes

Among the causes for the president’s discomfiture are social inequality, poor COVID-19 management, steep inflation, decline of rural communities, disgruntlement among the working class, and his own personality, failing to seize the impetus provided by his second presidential win to campaign for a parliamentary majority, his top-down approach, lack of inclusivity and lofty disregard of the underdog.

The strong support for political extremes reflects the frustration with Macron that first erupted in 2018 with the Yellow Vest movement against perceived economic injustice, which periodically resurfaced among those who see him as too pro-business, arrogant and tone-deaf to everyday concerns.

Responding to the election result, the president said, “We have to build compromises; we have to learn to govern and legislate differently.” But, humility and partnership do not come easily to Macron.

General view of the empty seats of the hemicycle prior to the weekly session of questions to the government at the National Assembly in Paris, France, May 19, 2020. Christophe Petit/Pool via REUTERS.

Melanchon wishes to cut working hours and the retirement age from 62 to 60, freeze the prices of essential goods, cap inheritance, increase government spending and wages, nationalise some economic sectors, and ban companies that pay dividends from firing workers. However, Macron’s second-term agenda was tax cuts, welfare reform, an increase in retirement age and further European Union integration.

The stunning blow to Macron means French policy enters a period of uncertainty requiring the president to seek power-sharing, unknown in France since 1988, by allying with centre-right Les Republicain conservatives – who have 64 seats; or run a minority government that will have to negotiate laws on a case-by-case basis, or call for new parliamentary elections.

The constitution also allows him in certain circumstances to pass laws without the assembly’s approval. Minority governments are rare in France; its political culture is different from countries such as Germany, where coalitions are commonplace,

Early discussions suggest that Les Republicains would be no easy partners; they indicate the intention to stay in opposition to comply with their support base. The two major opposition groups on the far-right and left are not remotely interested in collaboration, and the pincer from the extremes will try to disrupt the passage of new reforms, and resort to street protests whenever necessary.

Though French trade unions are the weakest in Europe, the investment climate will diminish with perceptions of instability. NUPES wants to separate investment from retail banking, prohibit toxic derivatives and implement significant taxes on financial transactions.

Macron was considering the nationalisation of the power utility EDF and investment in nuclear power, whereas NUPES wants to exit from nuclear and would go beyond the nationalisation of EDF by combining the electric distribution system and other energy players into one state-run entity. The luxury industry, which is France’s powerhouse, would suffer from increased taxes. It is unlikely, however, that the NUPES objectives will find favour with parliament.

To Macron’s advantage, most opposition parties have fragile unity. Identity issues and immigration divide the right and left. Le Pen is not for Frexit but both she and Melanchon are sceptical of the EU and want more devolution.

Both in general support Macron on Ukraine, while the Greens, previously regarded as peaceniks, have become extreme in Germany. Le Pen’s spokesperson has said that if the government sought measures the party wanted, such as a cut in sales tax (VAT), it would vote in favour. On some issues, the Republicains, the rump of the erstwhile traditional right wing, will agree to measures like raising the pension age to 65, but such support will come at a price and make Macron’s supposedly centrist government look even more right-wing.

As far as foreign policy is concerned, the president retains control over defence, European and foreign policy. Macron’s first term was marked by France positioning itself as a global player and himself as Europe’s first leader following Brexit and the departure of German chancellor Angela Merkel. His priority had been Europe, and he was willing to give up some French sovereignty for EU integration while strengthening the EU’s defence arrangements in opposition to NATO. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has strengthened Europe’s transatlantic solidarity with the US, leaving Macron in an awkward position.

The extent to which Macron is distracted by domestic affairs remains to be seen. In respect of Africa, even during Macron’s first term, France’s traditional influence was waning with its military presence no longer welcome in the Sahel region, especially Mali.

The Central African Franc (CFA) was discontinued in 2020. Francophone Gabon and Togo have opted to join the Commonwealth, a British post-colonial association. As for India, France’s valued defence partnership will not be affected by the weakening of Macron’s political status at home.

Krishnan Srinivasan is a former foreign secretary. Julius Fein is a specialist on French politics. 

French Opposition Tells ‘Arrogant’ Macron: Compromise To Win Support

Disaffected voters angry over spiralling inflation and Macron’s perceived indifference towards hard-up families delivered a hung parliament in Sunday’s election, leaving the centrist alliance several dozen seats short of a ruling majority.

Paris: French President Emmanuel Macron refused to accept his prime minister’s resignation and met with opposition leaders on Tuesday as he sought a way out of a political predicament after losing his parliamentary majority.

Disaffected voters angry over spiralling inflation and Macron’s perceived indifference towards hard-up families delivered a hung parliament in Sunday’s election, leaving the president’s centrist alliance several dozen seats short of a ruling majority.

It means his centrist Ensemble bloc will need to find support from among the opposition benches in order to salvage his reform agenda.

Macron’s opponents said it was time he learned to listen to others and that support would come at a cost. Christian Jacob, leader of the conservative Les Republicains, said Macron had been “arrogant” during his first term.

“We’re not going to betray those who showed faith in us. Those who voted for us did not do so so that we enter with little thought into any old coalition,” Jacob told reporters.

Jacob made his remarks after holding an hour-long meeting with Macron.

Les Republicains provide the most obvious place for Macron to find support. The conservatives’ economic platform is largely compatible with Macron’s, including his plans to raise the retirement age by three years to 65.

However, the conservatives, whose past presidents include Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac, have so far ruled out a formal German-style coalition pact.

Even so, Jacob said his party would be “responsible” and would not “block the institutions”, seemingly opening the door to cooperation on a bill-by-bill basis.

Macron’s camp has said it hoped to find moderates on both the political right and left with whom it can work.

The pro-European president who wants to deepen EU integration, make the French work longer, and build new nuclear plants, wants this week’s talks with the opposition “to identify possible constructive solutions,” the Elysee palace said.

Negotiate

Sunday’s elections delivered a fragmented parliament and plunged France into uncharted waters with no rule book on how to exit the crisis.

If Macron and his alliance fail to secure support, France could face a long spell of political gridlock that may later on compel Macron to dissolve parliament and call a new election.

Olivier Faure, leader of the Parti Socialiste, which joined the left-wing Nupes bloc ahead of the election, said his party could back some policy proposals – but only if Macron took on board their ideas.

“We have had a so-called Jupiterian period when the president decided alone and where he was not accountable to anyone,” Faure told reporters.

“From now on…he is forced into accepting a bigger role for parliament … and it’s rather healthy that he be accountable, negotiate, seek points of agreement.”

No easy solution appears to be at hand and from Thursday Macron will be distracted by a week of international meetings abroad, including EU, G7 and NATO summits.

Opposition calls for Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne to step down had intensified throughout Monday. On Tuesday the Elysee said she had tendered her resignation but that Macron had refused so that the government could keep working.

Nonetheless, the wording of the Elysee statement hinted it could be only a temporary reprieve. Borne was due to meet with her cabinet at 1230 GMT.

“The result of the legislative elections should make (Macron) think,” said the far-right’s Marine Le Pen, whose party won by far its highest ever number of lawmakers in the National Assembly.

Manuel Bompard of the hard-left La France Insoumise party, another member of the leftwing Nupes alliance, said “sooner or later” there would be a snap election.

A government insider said it was not in Macron’s interests to call a snap election now, but that “it is a card to play when the country is paralysed.”

Macron’s Camp Seeks Allies, After Election Delivers a Fragmented Parliament

Macron was elected for a second term in April but risks losing control of the lower house of parliament.

Paris: President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist camp scrambled on Monday to secure support from rivals to salvage some of its reform agenda after weekend elections delivered a fragmented parliament that leaves France at risk of political paralysis.

The loss of his Ensemble alliance’s absolute majority is a bitter setback for Macron, himself elected for a second term in April. French governments have long been used to having a lower house of parliament that shares their political line and largely rubber-stamps proposals.

Sunday’s second-round vote left Ensemble as the biggest party, with a fledgling leftwing alliance determined to make its voice heard in second place, the far-right stronger than ever and the conservatives as potential kingmakers.

“It’s going to be complicated,” government spokeswoman Olivia Gregoire told France Inter radio. “We’re going to have to be creative.”

Losing control of parliament means Macron will need to shed his top-down approach to politics, which he himself called “Jupiterian“, for a much more consensual stance.

“Such a fragmented parliament will likely result in political deadlock, with a much slower reform agenda,” said Philippe Gudin of Barclays.

“This will likely weaken France’s position in Europe and endanger the country’s fiscal position, which is already weak.”

What next?

One key question is whether Macron will try to strike a coalition deal with the conservative Les Republicains – who have for now rejected that option – or enter into messy negotiations with lawmakers on a bill-by-bill basis.

Gregoire said he would soon reshuffle his government, which could see Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne lose her job after just over a month in office.

It is unclear whether the broad leftwing Nupes alliance of Jean-Luc Melenchon can stay united and what influence Marine Le Pen’s strong far-right contingent will wield.

“We will try to bring others on board with us, especially to convince the few moderates in parliament to follow us,” Gregoire said.

A few lone voices aside, lawmakers from Les Republicains (LR), who gathered on Monday to discuss the fallout from the election, have so far rejected a coalition pact – but the door may be open to deals on a case by case basis.

“We’re not here to block and we’re not for sale,” said Xavier Bertrand, a veteran Republicain. “So there is no question of being part of a presidential majority, no question of a government agreement.”

Ensemble and LR have compatible platforms on economic matters, including pushing up the retirement age and promoting nuclear energy. Together, they would have an absolute majority.

First tests

If no agreement with the opposition can be found, the euro zone’s second biggest economy faces political deadlock and possible snap elections down the line.

A first major test will be a cost-of-living bill which Gregoire said the government will put to lawmakers in eight days, when the new parliament sits for the first time.

Proposals in the summer on renewable energy will test the solidity of the left, which is divided over nuclear power.

Final figures showed Macron’s centrist camp won 245 seats – well below the 289 needed for an absolute majority, Nupes 131, the far-right 89 and Les Republicains 61.

Macron himself has yet to comment on the election result, and the opposition urged him to break his silence.

Painful setback

The vote was a painful setback for the 44-year-old president, whose victory in April made him the first French president in two decades to win a second term, as voters rallied to keep his far-right opponent Le Pen out of power.

In his final term, he had wanted to deepen European Union integration, raise the retirement age and inject new life into France’s nuclear industry.

Financial markets took the result largely in their stride, with little impact on the euro and stocks in early trading on Monday. French bond spreads saw some widening pressure.

“The hope that some foreign exchange traders placed in Macron in 2017 evaporated some time back, so that election victories or defeats do not play a major role for the euro exchange rates any longer,” Commerzbank analyst Ulrich Leuchtmann said in a note.

France: Macron’s Re-Election Comes With Deep Challenges

Macron’s re-election has less to do with a punishment vote than the erosion of the “Republican front” – or the French political tradition to set aside political differences to prevent the far right’s rise to power.

Emmanuel Macron’s decisive victory over Marine Le Pen in the second round of France’s presidential election on April 24, 2022 is no surprise. For more than a year, opinion polls had been predicting it. As early as April 2021, the leading polling institutes (Elabe, Harris interactive, Ifop, Ipsos) estimated the final score of the outgoing president in a range of 54 to 57% of the vote. And when it came down to the final night, Macron made it through all the campaign’s twists and came out unscathed, with 58.8% of the vote.

The success continues the theme of the first round, when Macron finished 4.5 points and 1.6 million votes ahead of Le Pen, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon just barely being eliminated for the second round – he won nearly 22% of the vote, just a single percentage point behind the far-right candidate.

With the first round behind him, Macron knew that he could count on the support of a larger number of candidates (Valerie Pécresse, Les Républicains; Yannick Jadot, Europe Ecologie Les Verts; Fabien Roussel, Parti Communiste; and Anne Hidalgo, Parti Socialiste) than Le Pen, who was endorsed only by the two other far-right candidates (Eric Zemmour and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan).

While Mélenchon did not call for his supporters to cast votes for Macron, he proclaimed that “not a single vote” should go to Marine Le Pen.

Re-election without shared power

Emmanuel Macron thus escapes the curse of the “punishment vote” against the incumbent president that led to the defeats of Valéry Giscard d’Estaing in 1981 and Nicolas Sarkozy in 2012, and also contributed to François Hollande’s decision not to stand for re-election in 2017. Macron also becomes the first president of the Fifth Republic to be reelected without having to share power. François Mitterrand was forced to do so in 1988, while Jacques Chirac suffered that humiliation in 2002.

The win appears to vindicate Macron’s 2017 strategy in which he cast himself as the “progressive” champion of pro-European liberals of the right and the left against the “nationalist populists” gathered around Marine Le Pen. In the past five years, Macron’s words and actions have sought to consolidate the bipolarisation that had ensured his success in the second round of the 2017 presidential election and appeared to be the key to a second term.

A man rides a bike in front of posters of Marine Le Pen, French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National) party candidate for the 2022 French presidential election outside the party headquarters, after her defeat in the second round of the election, in Paris, France, April 25, 2022. Photo: Reuters/Yves Herman

An imperfect strategy

The strategy worked, but only imperfectly. Indeed, the French political landscape is now structured around three poles rather than two. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s score was the first round’s biggest surprise, as was his capacity to bring together left-wing voters hostile to Macron’s liberalism. This was most overlooked by Macron himself, who concentrated on capturing the electorate of the traditional right.

During the two-week period between the two rounds, the question of what left-wing voters would – or wouldn’t – do was crucial, with the two finalists both seeking to attract those who voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Marine Le Pen did so by insisting on her agenda’s “social” character, while seeking to minimise her party’s deep ties to Russia. Emmanuel Macron, meanwhile, declared that he would make the environment the top priority of his goverment. Neither succeeded in fully convincing voters nor did the balance of power really shift.

The results of the second round seem to indicate that left-wing voters did not behave in a mechanical and uniform way. A significant proportion opted for Marine Le Pen, particularly in rural areas and in the overseas departments and territories. In the latter, she attracted many who had voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round: she obtained almost 70% of the vote in Guadeloupe, where he had won 56% of the vote a fortnight earlier. Still, a slightly larger fraction voted for Emmanuel Macron, especially in the big cities where Mélenchon’s supporters have a sociological profile fairly close to that of the incumbent president.

Refusing to choose

Even more numerous are those who refused to choose. More than 12% of voters cast a blank or invalid ballot, compared to 2.2% for the first round. The abstention rate was also significantly higher than that of the first round of 2022 (28% versus 26.3%), and was also higher than that of 2017’s second round (25.4%).

The electorate’s three-way split does not sit well with the two-round majority vote. In 1969, the low proportion of votes cast in relation to the number of registered voters (63%) was already proof of this. 2022 serves as an even bolder example, with turnout sinking below 60% – a record for a French presidential election. Emmanuel Macron is therefore both one of the “best elected” presidents of the Fifth Republic (behind Jacques Chirac in 2002 and himself in 2017) if we compare his score to the votes cast, and “worst elected” if we look at the percentage of registered voters (barely 35%, against 38% for Georges Pompidou in 1969 and 43.5% for himself in 2017).

The scattering of left-wing, and to a lesser extent, of traditional right-wing votes, has caused Macron to fall back by more than 8 points and nearly 4 million voters compared to the second round of 2017. This drop is unprecedented in the history of presidential elections: Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, in 1981, and Nicolas Sarkozy, in 2012, had respectively lost 3 and 5 points compared to the previous election.

A crumbling “Republican front”

This has less to do with a punishment vote than the erosion of the “Republican front” – or the French political tradition consisting in setting aside political differences to prevent the far right’s rise to power. It had a huge impact in 2002, was less effective in 2017 and only worked partially in 2022. Hence although Le Pen has lost again, voting for a far right candidate is no longer seen as unacceptable in France.

The victory of Emmanuel Macron, while anticipated, should not mask the election’s two main lessons. First, the far right obtained a level never before reached in France, thanks to its ability to bring together a heterogeneous, predominantly working-class electorate. Second, the country’s political landscape, now structured around three poles, is out of step with a voting system adapted to two dominant parties. These two issues make the outcome of France’s upcoming legislative elections, which take place in June, all the more uncertain.The Conversation

Mathias Bernard, Historien, Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA).

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

French Elections: Emmanuel Macron Defeats Far-Right Le Pen, Will Return for Second Term

Macron becomes the first French leader to win reelection in two decades since Jacques Chirac in 2002.

French voters on Sunday handed Emmanuel Macron a second term in the country’s presidential election after his far-right rival Marine Le Pen failed to achieve a populist upset.

Macron won around 58.5% of the vote versus Le Pen on 41.5%, according to preliminary official results.

In doing so, he becomes the first French leader to win reelection in two decades since Jacques Chirac in 2002.

Shortly after his win, Macron told supporters at a rally in front of the Eiffel Tower in Paris that he would be a “president for all of us” and that his second term would “not be a continuation of my previous mandate.”

Sunday’s election runoff was a repeat of the clash between the two candidates in 2017 when Macron won 66% of the vote.

But this poll was marked by much uncertainty over whether supporters of far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon — who came a strong third in the first round of voting two weeks ago — would switch their support to either of the two finalists, abstain or spoil their ballot.

How did Macron get reelected?

Macron, a pro-European liberal, marketed himself as a stabilising force during a time of crisis, pointing to his leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This clearly resonated with voters, despite many people seeing him as being out of touch and elitist.

Ahead of the vote, Macron watered down plans to reform the country’s generous pension system in a bid to woo voters from the left.

Macron secured a second victory despite the ups and downs of his first term, including the so-called yellow-vest movement in 2018 that saw massive nationwide protests against his business-friendly policies and tax cuts for the wealthy.

A clue to his success came two weeks ago when Macron took a nearly 5-percentage-point lead over Le Pen in the first round when polls, ahead of the vote, had suggested the race would be tighter.

His second-round campaign was also bolstered by the backing of several French newspapers, with some warning that a Le Pen victory would make France an unreliable partner abroad and would disrupt national unity.

At a victory event in Paris, Macron acknowledged the sometimes bitter election battle against Le Pen and offered a message of unity to her supporters saying: “We now need to be respectful because we have had so many divisions and doubts.”

The president also promised his supporters to continue to “work for a fairer, equal society,” and said, “in order to do that we need to be demanding and ambitious.”

Why Le Pen’s approach failed

Le Pen, a far-right populist from the National Rally (RN) party, had threatened a major upset in French and European politics if she had been elected.

RN has historically been accused of espousing racist, anti-Semitic and anti-Islam policies. But in the months leading up to Sunday’s runoff, she sought to soften her party’s hardline image over immigration in a bid to woo more voters.

However, Le Pen did campaign to uphold a traditional French identity, while her promise to tackle the cost of living crisis also resonated with many voters.

Many supporters would have welcomed her softer stance on the EU — no longer threatening to quit the bloc. However, her criticism of NATO at a time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have driven some people away.

Marine Le Pen, French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National) party candidate for the 2022 French presidential election, is surrounded by journalists following her speech, after her defeat in the second round of the 2022 French presidential election, at the Pavillon d’Armenonville, in Paris, France, April 24, 2022. Photo: Reuters/Yves Herman

Fresh accusations that she and other party aides allegedly embezzled EU funds during her time as a member of the European Parliament may also have hit her trust with voters, although she has denied the allegations.

In a speech to her supporters in Paris, Le Pen said she had “no hard feelings” over the defeat. But she warned that Macron’s next term was likely to show as “much contempt and brutality” for the ordinary French voter as his previous term.

Hinting at her political future, the 53-year-old far-right politician said: “I’m going to continue to work for France and French citizens with the dedication that you know that I am capable of,” Le Pen said.

DW Correspondent Barbara Wesel, reporting from Le Pen’s campaign headquarters in Paris, said: “There is no natural successor, it really is a one-woman show. The party will need some time to figure out what comes next.”

Modi congratulates Macron

From India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Macron on his win, adding that he looked “forward to continue working together to deepen the India-France Strategic Partnership”.

European leaders breathe a sigh of relief

Several European leaders and politicians swiftly congratulated Macron on his second-term win, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

“Your constituents also sent a strong commitment to Europe today. I am pleased that we will continue our good cooperation,” Scholz wrote on Twitter.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted in French, “together we will make France and Europe advance.”

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte also tweeted in French his hope to “continue our extensive and constructive cooperation in EU and NATO.”

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson sent his congratulations, saying France is one of Britain’s “closest and most important allies.”

“I look forward to continuing to work together on the issues which matter most to our two countries and to the world,” he added.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi described the win as “wonderful news for the whole of Europe.”

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said that with Macron’s victory, “Democracy wins, Europe wins,” adding that French “citizens have chosen a France committed to a free, strong and fair EU.”

US expects close cooperation with reelected Macron

US President Joe Biden congratulated Macron and said he looked forward to continued close cooperation.

He wrote on Twitter that France was the US’s “oldest ally and a key partner in addressing global challenges.”

“I look forward to our continued close cooperation — including on supporting Ukraine, defending democracy, and countering climate change,” Biden said.

It’s a sentiment that was echoed by his Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who said the US was looking “forward to continuing close cooperation with France on global challenges.”

This article was originally published on DW.