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UK’s Conservative Party Faces Historically Worst Election Result in Brexit Crisis

A Yougov poll showed that voters appear to be abandoning the Conservatives and Labour Parties, which have been trying to offer some sort of compromise on Brexit.

London: British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party would suffer its worst general election result if a vote were held now, according to an opinion poll, as voters frustrated with the deadlock over Brexit rejected the main political parties.

The Conservatives, one of the most successful parties in the western world, would slump to third place in a nationwide vote with 19%, its lowest place since the party was founded almost 200 years ago, the YouGov poll for The Times newspaper showed.

The main opposition Labour Party, which is led by socialist Jeremy Corbyn and has been pushing for a softer version of Brexit, would also finish third with 19% of the vote, its worst performance since 1918, according to the poll.

The main beneficiaries of the swing against the two main parties would be the political parties that took unequivocal positions for or against Brexit. Voters appear to be abandoning the Conservatives and Labour, which in their own ways have been trying to offer some sort of compromise on Brexit.

The Liberal Democrats, which has campaigned on a straightforward demand for a new referendum, aiming to reverse Brexit, would emerge as the largest political party with 24% of the vote, the poll showed.

The next largest party would be Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which has only existed for a few months and supports a clean break with the European Union, with 22% of the vote.

The results underscore the growing polarisation of British politics, pointing to yet more uncertainty after the country was thrust into its biggest political crisis since World War Two, when voters opted in a referendum to leave the EU in 2016.

The United Kingdom was supposed to have left on March 29 but it remains a member of the EU and its politicians are still arguing over how, when or even whether the country will leave the club it joined in 1973.

May was forced to resign as prime minister last week after three years of trying but failing to pull Britain out of the EU, setting off a contest among lawmakers to replace her.

The Conservatives have ruled alone or in coalition for 63 years in the last century. The party, founded in 1834, has never finished outside the top two parties in a nationwide vote.

No-deal Brexit?

Leading candidates to become Britain’s next prime minister have said Britain should be ready to leave the EU with no withdrawal deal at all – a move opposed by a majority in parliament and one that the Bank of England has said could be akin to the 1970s oil shock.

One of the candidates, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, said it would be “political suicide” to pursue a no-deal Brexit, a reprimand to front-runner Boris Johnson who said last week that Britain should leave with or without a deal by the end of October.

The Confederation of British Industry, Britain’s main lobby group for business, wrote an open letter to the leadership candidates on Thursday evening, warning them they will forfeit the right to be regarded as the leader of the party of business if they fail to secure a Brexit deal.

Labour has since edged closer to a position that could make it possible to call off Brexit, but has stopped short of calling for a new referendum in all circumstances and has said a general election is its preferred outcome.

Britain’s next national election is not due until 2022 although one could be called earlier in certain circumstances such as if a motion of no confidence in the government is passed by a simple majority.

(Reuters)

Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn Pushes for Parliament Vote on New Brexit Referendum

The Labour leadership put forward an amendment seeking to force the government to give parliament time to consider and vote on options to prevent a “no deal” exit including a customs union with the EU, and “a public vote on a deal”.

London: British opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn moved a step closer to paving the way for another referendum on European Union membership by trying to use parliament to grab control of Brexit from Prime Minister Theresa May.

With the clock ticking down to March 29, the date set in law for Brexit, the United Kingdom is in the deepest political crisis in half a century as it grapples with how, or even whether, to exit the European project it joined in 1973.

Since May’s divorce deal with the EU was rejected by 432-202 lawmakers last week, the biggest defeat in modern British history, lawmakers have been trying to plot a course out of the crisis, yet no option has the majority support of parliament.

Labour put forward an amendment seeking to force the government to give parliament time to consider and vote on options to prevent a “no deal” exit including a customs union with the EU, and “a public vote on a deal”.

“It is time for Labour’s alternative plan to take centre stage, while keeping all options on the table, including the option of a public vote,” said Corbyn, who put his name to the amendment.

Also Read: UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit ‘Plan B’: What Happens Next in Parliament?

It was the first time the Labour leadership had put forward in parliament the possibility of a second vote, which was welcomed by some opponents of Brexit.

However, the party said it did not mean it supported another referendum and lawmakers cautioned that the amendment would not garner the support of parliament.

Clarity from London is some way off: lawmakers have so far put forward six amendments with proposals for a delay to Brexit, a new vote and even for parliament to grab control of the process. They will vote on the next steps on Jan. 29.

Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May leaves Downing Street in London, Britain, January 21, 2019. Credit: Reuters/Hannah McKay

‘Worst case scenario’

Beyond the intrigues of British politics, the future of Brexit remains deeply unpredictable with options ranging from a disorderly exit that would spook investors across the world to a new referendum that could reverse the whole process.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde told CNBC on Tuesday that a no-deal Brexit was “obviously the worst case scenario”.

Ever since the United Kingdom voted by 52-48% to leave the EU in June 2016, Britain’s leaders have repeatedly failed to reach a consensus on how to leave the EU.

May on Monday proposed tweaking her deal, a bid to win over rebel Conservative lawmakers and the Northern Irish party which props up her government, but Labour said May was in denial about the crushing defeat of her plans.

She refused to rule out a no-deal Brexit, warning that another referendum would strengthen the hand of those seeking to break up the United Kingdom and could damage social cohesion by undermining faith in democracy.

With May’s Brexit policy in tatters, lawmakers in the British parliament are trying to wrest control of Brexit, though there is no clear majority for an alternative to May’s deal.

The EU was not impressed with May’s speech on Monday, as highlighted by the fact that none of its top officials nor its Brexit negotiator made any comments – positive or negative.

Also Read: UK Likely to Delay Brexit, Referendum Possible: Nigel Farage

German Justice Minister Katarina Barley said on Tuesday she was disappointed by British Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to break a deadlock over Brexit and suggested Britain hold a second referendum.

Without an approved deal or an alternative, the world’s fifth largest economy will move to basic World Trade Organization rules on March 29 — a nightmare scenario for manufacturers dependent on delicate supply chains which stretch across Europe and beyond.

Company chiefs are shocked at the political crisis and say it has already damaged Britain’s reputation as Europe’s pre-eminent destination for foreign investment.

“Brexit is the most stupid economic decision for a long time, the worst thing that can happen,” Kasper Rorsted, boss of German sportswear firm Adidas, told the Suddeutsche Zeitung.

Asked if Brexit could be averted, he said: “I think the train has already left the station. Emotionally, I hope that all parties can come to their senses.”

Supporters of Brexit say that while there may be some short-term disruption, the warnings of chaos are overblown and that in the long term, Britain will thrive if it cuts loose from what they cast as a doomed German-dominated experiment in European unity.

(Reuters)

British PM May Survives Party Confidence Vote but Brexit Deal Still Teetering

With Britain due to leave the EU on March 29, parliament’s opposition has suddenly opened up possibilities including a potentially disorderly exit with no deal or even another referendum on membership.

London: British Prime Minister Theresa May survived a confidence vote by the Conservative Party on Wednesday, but a mutiny by more than a third of her lawmakers indicated parliament was heading towards deadlock over Brexit.

While 200 conservative lawmakers voted in support of May as the leader, 117 dissented, indicating opposition not only from several dozen supporters of a hard Brexit but also from many more pragmatic lawmakers – and signalling that she was no nearer to passing her EU divorce agreement.

It was not the robust affirmation she needed as she heads to Brussels on Thursday to ask the other 27 EU leaders, who have made room for her at a summit, for clarification of the deal to reassure the doubters.

Also Read: UK PM Theresa May to Ask Merkel to Help Change Brexit Divorce Deal

On Monday, May had cancelled a parliamentary vote on her deal, struck after two years of negotiations and designed to maintain close future ties with the bloc, after admitting it would be heavily defeated.

Anti-Brexit protestor Steve Bray holds placards outside of the Houses of Parliament, in London, Britain, December 10, 2018. Credit: Reuters/Toby Melville/Files

Speaking in Downing Street after the vote, May said she would listen to those who had voted against her and seek legal assurances on the most controversial part of her deal – an insurance policy to prevent a hard border between EU member Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland. Many in her party fear that these “backstop” measures could last indefinitely.

“I’ve Listened”

“A significant number of colleagues did cast a vote against me and I’ve listened to what they said,” May said. “We now have to get on with the job of delivering Brexit for the British people.”

However, EU leaders have lined up to say they have no intention of changing the agreement.

And diplomatic sources in Brussels told Reuters the draft of a document being prepared for May included only the possibility that the bloc would look into giving Britain more assurances over the Irish backstop, without offering any immediately.

Also Read: Explainer: What Happens if UK PM Theresa May Loses Brexit Vote

Eurosceptic critics of the deal within May’s party triggered the no-confidence vote hours after she returned from a whistle-stop tour to meet European leaders at the start of the week.

Supporters said the result showed the party should now get behind her. But the eurosceptics who see her deal as a betrayal of the 2016 referendum said she should now quit.

“It is a terrible result for the prime minister,” Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of a hard Brexit faction, told BBC Television. “The prime minister must realise that, under all constitutional norms, she ought to go and see the queen urgently and resign.”

Eurosceptic British Member of Parliament, Jacob Rees-Mogg, speaks from St Stephen’s Entrance at the Houses of Parliament, in London, Britain November 15, 2018. Credit: Reuters/Peter Nicholls

May, who voted to remain in the EU in the referendum, had warned opponents of her withdrawal deal that if they toppled her, Brexit would be delayed or stopped.

Shortly before the vote, May sought to win over wavering lawmakers by promising to step down before the 2022 election. But the confidence vote was also a proxy for the party’s divisions over Europe.

“If you’re a PM and a third of your MPs vote against you, that is very bad news,” eurosceptic lawmaker Mark Francois told Reuters.

Arithmetic Unchanged

The Northern Irish party that props up her government – and strongly opposes her withdrawal deal – said the fundamental arithmetic in parliament was unchanged. The opposition Labour Party said she must now bring the agreement back to parliament.

Also Read: UK Can Unilaterally Revoke Brexit Decision, Rules Top EU Court

Brexit is Britain’s most significant political and economic decision since World War Two. Pro-Europeans fear the departure will weaken the West as it grapples with the US presidency of Donald Trump and growing assertiveness from Russia and China.

The outcome will shape Britain’s $2.8 trillion economy, have far-reaching consequences for the unity of the kingdom and determine whether London keeps its place as one of the top two global financial centres.

Supporters of Brexit admit there may be some short-term pain for the economy, but say it will prosper in the long term when cut free from the EU, which they cast as a failing German-dominated experiment in European integration.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel gestures as she addresses the lower house of parliament Bundestag in Berlin, Germany December 12, 2018. Credit: Reuters/Annegret Hilse

May, 62, won the top job in the turmoil that followed the 2016 EU referendum, where Britons decided by 52% to 48 to leave the EU. She promised to implement Brexit while keeping close ties to the bloc, to heal a divided nation.

Sterling jumped as high as $1.2672 as the result came in but then fell to $1.2605, still up 1% on the day, after it emerged that the number of lawmakers who had voted against May was higher than many in the markets had expected.

“It is right at the top end of the number of people who were expected to be against her,” said John Curtice, one of Britain’s leading polling experts. “It is not unlikely that she will go by some point in April-May time.”

(Reuters)

Explainer: A Vote Reversed – What Is the Path Back From Brexit?

The crisis in Prime Minister Theresa May’s government over her draft Brexit divorce deal has stirred interest in the possibility that the UK could change its mind, or ‘Regrexit’.

London: To leave, or not to leave: two and a half years since the UK voted to exit the EU, that is still the question.

The crisis in Prime Minister Theresa May’s government over her draft Brexit divorce deal has stirred interest in the possibility that the UK could change its mind, or ‘regrexit’.

In the June 23, 2016 referendum, 17.4 million voters, or 52%, backed Brexit while 16.1 million, or 48%, backed staying in the bloc.

But ever since, opponents of Brexit have been exploring ways to hold another referendum.

May has repeatedly said there will not be another referendum on membership and the leader of the main opposition party, Jeremy Corbyn, has indicated he is also not in favour.

So what is the path to a second vote?

1) May’s Brexit Plan Fails

The first step, according to campaigners, is that parliament rejects May’s draft divorce deal.

To leave the EU on the terms of her deal, May would need the backing of parliament.

The size of the rebellion inside her Conservative Party and the anger of her allies in the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party indicate she would have trouble passing the deal, even with significant support from Labour Party lawmakers.

Also Read: ‘I’m Going to See This Through’: UK PM Theresa May Vows to Fight for Brexit Deal

“I suspect it will get to parliament and parliament will vote it down and once that happens it will be game on for a People’s Vote,” said Hugo Dixon, deputy chair of the People’s Vote campaign group, which wants another referendum.

“Voting down a deal does not mean we crash out with no deal at all; it means we are highly likely to move to a People’s Vote with an option to stay in the EU,” Dixon said. “The no deal scenario is not likely,”

2) UK Political Crisis

The collapse of May’s deal would thrust the UK deeper into crisis.

Three of the four former British prime ministers still alive – John Major, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown – have said a second referendum is the way to resolve the crisis.

“I still believe it is possible that Brexit is stopped,” Blair told Reuters last month.

The opposition Labour Party, which is also divided over Brexit, has indicated it would seek to trigger a national election if May failed to get parliamentary approval.

Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn speaks on immigration and moving on after the EU referendum, in central London, Britain June 25, 2016. REUTERS/Neil Hall

But to secure an election, two-thirds of the 650 lawmakers in parliament would have to vote for one.

Another way is if a motion of no confidence in the government is passed. There is then a 14-day grace period in which to pass an act of confidence in a new government.

If there is no vote of confidence in that new government, then a new election must be held within about 17 working days, according to the Institute of Government.

Also Read: Brexit Draft Deal Agreed by Cabinet – but Parliament’s Approval Remains Unlikely

Brexit campaigners think Labour would fail to trigger an election.

3) Parliament Takes Charge

After what would have been weeks of crisis and the failure of various other options – an election, a new prime minister, attempts to renegotiate with the EU – parliament would finally demand a new referendum.

The exact mechanism is unclear but lawmakers could vote for a motion calling for a new referendum as a way out of the deadlock. That would have to be backed up by legislation calling a referendum.

4) Asking the EU for Time

Holding a referendum would take months so the EU would have to be asked for more time as the UK is currently on course to leave at 2300 GMT on March 29, 2019.

Key to asking for more time is the question of whether the UK could withdraw Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon nearly two years after May invoked it.

As the clause has never been used before, lawyers have a diverse range of opinions on its reversibility or not.

But the British diplomat who drafted the clause, John Kerr, has repeatedly argued that it can be reversed.

“The die is not irrevocably cast, there is still time and, until the UK has left the EU, the Article 50 letter can be withdrawn,” Kerr, who was British ambassador to the EU from 1990 to 1995, said in “The Roadmap to a People’s Vote“.

Also Read: EU Top Court To Hear Brexit Reversal Case on November 27

Judges at the European Union’s highest court will hear a case on the Brexit process on Nov. 27, reviewing whether Britain could unilaterally withdraw its decision to leave the EU.

5) What Would the People say?

Unclear.

Many supporters of Brexit say that holding such a vote would thrust the UK into its biggest ever constitutional crisis, and possibly even provoke disorder.

While polls and academic research show that the country remains divided, a survey of 20,000 voters published this month showed it would vote to stay in the EU.

FILE PHOTO: Protesters participate in an anti-Brexit demonstration at City Hall in central Belfast, Northern Ireland October 20, 2018. Credit: REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne/File Photo

Many surveys ahead of the vote incorrectly predicted that Britain would vote to stay in the club it joined in 1973. But a vote to leave in a second referendum would surely mean the country would have to leave.

6) What Would be on the Ballot Paper?

It’s not clear, of course. Jo Johnson, younger brother of Boris, resigned from the government earlier this month, calling for another referendum.

People should be asked “whether they want to go ahead with Brexit now that we know the deal that is actually available to us, whether we should leave without any deal at all, or whether people on balance would rather stick with the deal we already have inside the European Union”, he said.

Also Read: Several British Ministers Quits Over Theresa May’s EU Deal

Supporters of Brexit say having two options for Brexit and one for remain would be unfair as it would split the vote for Brexit.

7) Love EU Again?

The prospect of the world’s fifth largest economy returning to the fold would surely be welcomed by most EU leaders.

European Council President Donald Tusk said this week that the EU is prepared to cancel Brexit.

Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May and European Council President Donald Tusk pose before a bilateral meeting at a European Union leaders summit in Brussels, Belgium October 20, 2017. Credits: Reuters/Olivier Hoslet

French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, has suggested Britain could still change its mind.

8) Neverendum?

Opponents of the idea of a second referendum say it would not solve anything even if voters chose to stay in the EU.

Supporters of Brexit would then demand a third, decisive referendum to resolve the question that has haunted the UK since it lost its empire: Should it go it alone or partner with the European project?

(Reuters)