Srinagar: People’s Conference’s decision on Tuesday to pull out of the Gupkar alliance came after days of speculation.
This is the first major setback to the alliance of regional parties comprising National Conference, Peoples Democratic Party and CPI(M) among others, who had joined hands to fight against the reading down of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status by the Bharatiya Janata Party government at the Centre.
“It is difficult for us to stay on and pretend as if nothing has happened,” Sajad Lone wrote in a three-paged letter to the Gupkar alliance chief Dr Farooq Abdullah. “There has been a breach of trust between partners which we believe is beyond remedy.”
The letter comes in the backdrop of the recently held DDC elections in Jammu and Kashmir, in which the Gupkar alliance had bagged over 110 out of 280 seats. The BJP emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, including the saffron party’s maiden wins from Kashmir.
Turbulence
Formed on October 20, 2020, the Gupkar alliance, formally the Peoples Alliance of Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), drifted towards turbulent waters soon after the J&K State Election Commission last year announced the schedule of the first-ever DDC elections.
Also read: ‘Breach of Trust’: Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference Quits Gupkar Alliance
After the announcement, consensus evaded the constituent parties on the choice of candidates. “When the PAGD leaders met to finalise the first list of candidates (for the DDC polls), there were heated arguments and the first sign of fissures began to appear,” said a People’s Conference leader, who did not want to be named.
“This alliance needed sacrifice. Every party had to sacrifice on the ground in terms of giving space to fellow allies. No party is willing to cede space, no party is willing to sacrifice. We fought against each other in Kashmir province not against the perpetrators of August 5. And those who perpetrated August 5 and their minions are now vocally gleeful,” Lone said in his letter.
Sources in PAGD told The Wire that even in situations where candidates of other parties had seemingly better chances, Farooq Abdullah, who is also the chief of the National Conference, “refused to listen” and unilaterally nominated his party’s candidates as PAGD candidates. “He took these decisions without consultations, thereby upsetting the constituent parties,” a leader of the People’s Conference said.
This “betrayal” by the NC chief led to a no-holds-barred slugfest in which almost every Kashmir-based political party, including Lone’s PC, fielded a candidate against their own PAGD candidate. In one north Kashmir constituency, a PAGD candidate lost because the PC had fielded a “proxy” candidate.
Also read: J&K DDC Polls: Despite Gupkar Alliance, Parties Are Fielding Proxy Candidates
“In majority of the places the party fielding the candidate on behalf of PAGD was left to fend for itself and secured the votes that his party managed. In most places other parties were silent bystanders or worst compounded the problem by fielding proxy candidates,” Lone said in his letter.
Of the 280 DDC seats, 19 saw a neck-to-neck contests where the margin of victory was fewer than 100 votes. Of these, eight were independents, two each were from National Conference and Congress, and one each from Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party, People Democratic Front and People’s Conference.
“Even as we were seemingly putting up a joint fight, there was a much bigger internal fight to pull each other down,” said the same People’s Conference leader quoted above.
Change of mind
In a recent function in Kupwara, Sajad Lone, who was also the spokesperson of PAGD, said the alliance was “firm on its resolve and will use every democratic way to ensure the return of the rights snatched by New Delhi on August 5, 2019.”
Questioning the timing of Lone’s exit, Justice (Retd) Hasnain Masoodi, the Lok Sabha MP from south Kashmir, who is also the coordinator of the alliance, said he should have “approached the PAGD leadership” if he was upset.
“Only yesterday in Handwara he (Sajad Lone) had said that there was no difference within PAGD. He would better know what changed,” Masoodi said, adding that the PAGD leadership “gave away whole constituency” of north Kashmir to the candidates of People’s Conference.
Lone’s party contested 10 seats in north Kashmir out of which it won eight. The party’s “80% strike rate” in the DDC elections became possible, said Masoodi, because the members and supporters of the “constituent parties voted for them.”
“That PAGD was under pressure from all sides was evident during the DDC elections when alliance candidates were put through all inconveniences. The PAGD will continue to fight for its cause,” Masoodi said.
Future
Political observers see the unravelling of the Gupkar alliance as a result of the “pressure” mounted by the BJP government that is keen on “normalising” the post-Article 370 situation in Jammu and Kashmir.
“They (constituents of PAGD) came together so that none of them accuses the other(s) of betrayal. Yet now they collectively participated in the betrayal. This process, more than anything else, served Delhi’s purpose of setting the political course in Kashmir back to ‘normal’ after the reading down of Article 370,” Aga Ruhullah Mehdi, a three time legislator and NC leader, told The Wire.
Ruhullah said the political leaders in Kashmir, instead of agitating for the return of democracy and Article 370, participated in a “hollow and false process.” “Delhi got an excuse to sell their participation as proof that political situation is back to normal,” he said.
A political observer said the Gupkar alliance’s decision to contest the DDC elections “also tested the waters for their electoral future” after August 5. “After the results, everyone is looking forward to getting a bigger share by contesting future elections on their own,” he said.
With the exit of Sajad Lone, a former BJP ally, the Gupkar alliance has been pushed on shaky ground. There are murmurs within the Peoples Democratic Party, the second largest constituent of PAGD with more than 25 DDC seats, against continuing in the alliance after the NC leaders recently met the LG.
“The PAGD is bigger that individual goals. We were the first to sacrifice our party’s interests for the larger goal of our dignity and democracy, and we will continue to fight for PAGD’s stated objectives,” said a PDP leader.
“But with the political climate warming up, it is unclear which way the wind will blow in coming weeks and months,” he said.
Professor Aijaz Ashraf, who teaches Political Science at the Central University of Kashmir, believes the exit of Sajad Lone from PAGD is a “political move” that was always on the horizon.
“It is only that he (Lone) did it first. People were always skeptical about the resilience of this alliance and their determination to resist the temptations of power. It was only a matter of time before parties start thinking about their own political interests and not of the alliance,” Ashraf said.
“This is the beginning. Let’s see where it ends. That is more interesting.”