A former Indian ambassador to both Israel and the United States, with a very good grasp of the politics of both countries, says President Joe Biden’s eight-hour visit to Israel on October 18 “will not be critical to what happens next”. Navtej Sarna says that the next seven to 10 days are “absolutely crucial” because during this period we will discover the size and scale of Israel’s ground offensive and the impact that it has on Palestinians living in Gaza as well as on public opinion and governments in the rest of the Middle East.
In a 23-minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Navtej Sarna, who has also served as high commissioner to the United Kingdom, said there is no doubt that there was a significant difference between what President Biden used to say before he visited Israel, when he warned that Israel must observe the rules of war, and the statement he made on Israeli soil Wednesday when he only cautioned against being consumed by rage.
Sarna suggested that it seems as if Biden could have green-lighted a ground invasion by Israel, provided the extent of lives killed and the destruction of Gaza is within a measure of restraint and limit. Of course, Sarna said, we do not know what Biden said to Prime Minister Netanyahu behind closed doors but this can be sensed from his public statements.
Speaking about President Biden’s announcement that Israel has agreed to permit humanitarian aid for Gaza through the Rafah crossing in Egypt, Sarna pointed out that this will be heavily impacted by the conditions Israel has laid down. Those conditions not only require checking of the trucks coming into Gaza by the Red Cross and not sharing the supplies with Hamas but also rule out the supply of fuel and, additionally, limit the supplies to only south Gaza and not Gaza north of Wadi Gaza.
According to the BBC, there are still some 4-500,000 Palestinians in north Gaza and they, therefore, will not get access to these supplies. Also, it seems, only 20 trucks will be permitted entry into Gaza on Friday. We don’t know what will happen thereafter.
There are many other issues raised with Sarna in this interview. This includes the cancellation of the Jordan summit and, also, a question of whether President Biden and the United States’s endorsement of the Israeli position that Islamic jihad was responsible for the attack on the Gaza hospital will upset or, at least, be of great concern to the Arab leaders.
There are also questions about whether President Biden’s personal and emotional behaviour in clear support of Israel will have an impact on the Arab countries.
Questions are also asked about whether the last 11 days have created an opportunity or, at least, room for China to fish in Middle Eastern waters. After successfully bringing Iran and Saudi Arabia together could Beijing want to dip its hands into the turbulent waters of Israel and Palestine?
I will leave you to find out about all of this from the interview.