Falluja

Baghdad Bombing Death Toll Rises to 292

The weekend attack has shown that ISIS is still capable of bombing Baghdad despite having lost control of their stronghold, Falluja last month.

People gather at the site of a suicide car bomb attack over the weekend at the shopping area of Karrada in Baghdad, Iraq July 6, 2016. Credit: Reuters/Thaier Al-Sudani

Baghdad: The death toll from a suicide bombing in Baghdad this weekend has reached 292, Iraq’s health ministry said on Thursday.

The attack, claimed by the militant group ISIS, which government forces are trying to eject from large parts of the north and west of the country, was the deadliest bombing in Iraq since US-led forces toppled Saddam Hussein 13 years ago.

The militants have lost ground since last year to US-backed government forces and Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias but the weekend bombing showed they can still strike Baghdad despite having lost Falluja, their nearby stronghold, in June.

More than 200 people were wounded in the attack in a busy shopping street in the mainly Shi’ite Karrada district of central Baghdad. About 23 of the wounded were still in hospital, health ministry spokesman Ahmed al-Rudaini told Reuters.

Earlier on Thursday, the ministry had put the toll at 281 and it rose as more people, registered as missing, were identified as dead, Rudaini said.

Iraq Body Count, a volunteer-led organisation that has been counting deaths since 2003, estimates civilian deaths since then at between 160,000 and 180,000 and the toll for violent deaths including combatants at more than 250,000.

(Reuters)

Iraqis Demand Crackdown on ISIS Sleeper Cells in Aftermath of Baghdad Bombing

Despite a string of territorial gains by Iraq’s ground forces against ISIS, the attacks show that ISIS can still strike in the heart of the Iraqi capital.

Despite recent territorial gains by Iraq’s ground forces against ISIS, the attacks show that the militant group can still strike in the heart of the Iraqi capital.

A man lights a candle at the site after a suicide bombing in the Karrada shopping area, in Baghdad, Iraq, July 3. Credit: Reuters/Khalid al Mousily

Baghdad: The death toll from a suicide bombing in a Baghdad shopping district rose above 175 on July 4, fuelling calls for security forces to crack down on Islamic State (ISIS) sleeper cells blamed for one of the worst-ever single bombings in Iraq.

Numbers rose as bodies were recovered from the rubble in the Karrada area of Baghdad, where a refrigerator truck packed with explosives blew up on the night of July 2 when people were out celebrating the holy month of Ramadan.

By the evening of July 4, the toll in Karrada stood at 175 killed and 200 wounded, according to police and medical sources. Rescuers and families were still looking for 37 missing people.

ISIS claimed the bombing, its deadliest in Iraq, saying it was a suicide attack. Another explosion struck the same night, when a roadside bomb blew up in the popular market of al-Shaab, a Shi’ite district in north Baghdad, killing two people.

The attacks showed ISIS can still strike in the heart of the Iraqi capital despite recent military losses, undermining Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s declaration of victory last month when Iraqi forces dislodged the hardline Sunni insurgents from the nearby city of Falluja.

Abadi’s Shi’ite-led government ordered the offensive on Falluja in May after a series of deadly bombings in Shi’ite areas of Baghdad that it said originated from the Sunni Muslim city, about 50 km (30 miles) west of the capital.

Falluja was the first Iraqi city captured by ISIS in 2014, six months before it declared a caliphate over parts of Iraq and Syria. Since last year the insurgents have been losing ground to US-backed Iraqi government forces and Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias.

“Abadi has to have a meeting with the heads of national security, intelligence, the interior ministry and all sides responsible for security and ask them just one question: How can we infiltrate these groups?” said Abdul Kareem Khalaf, a former police major general who advises the Netherlands-based European Centre for Counter Terrorism and Intelligence Studies think tank.

He said ISIS, or Daesh, “has supporters or members everywhere – in Baghdad, Basra and Kurdistan. All it takes is one house to have at least one man and you have a planning base and launch site for attacks of this type.”

In a sign of public outrage at the failure of the security services, Abadi was given an angry reception on July 3 when he toured Karrada, the district where he grew up, with residents throwing stones, empty buckets and even slippers at his convoy in gestures of contempt.

He ordered new measures to protect Baghdad, starting with the withdrawal of fake bomb detectors that police have continued to use despite a scandal that broke out in 2011 about their sale to Iraq under his predecessor, Nouri al-Maliki.

The hand-held devices were initially developed to find lost golf balls, and the British businessman who sold them to Iraq for $40 million was jailed in Britain in 2013.

Abadi ordered that the fake devices be replaced by efficient detectors at the entrances to Baghdad and Iraq’s provinces.

Later on July 4, the justice ministry announced in a statement that five people convicted of terrorism and sentenced to death were executed on July 4 morning, bringing the total number of those executed on the same charges to 37 in the past two months.

“We refuse categorically all political or international interventions to stop the death sentence under the cover of human rights; Iraqi blood is above all slogans,” it said, linking the timing of the executions to the Karrada bombing.

Iraqi intelligence services also announced on July 4 the arrest of 40 “terrorists” suspected of forming a group to carry out attacks in Baghdad and the eastern Diyala province.

Busy streets

Karrada, a largely Shi’ite district with a small Christian community and a few Sunni mosques, was busy at the time of the blast as people were eating out and shopping late during Ramadan, which ends this week with the Eid al-Fitr festival.

As Iraq started observing three days of national mourning, rescuers continued digging through the rubble of a shopping mall believed to be the main target of the bombing, searching for bodies or possible survivors.

Three bodies were pulled out in the morning from the basement of the three-story Al-Laith mall, which was reduced to a skeleton of charred steel and concrete by the blast. Its glass facades were blown out and its internal divider walls collapsed.

Dozens of people gathered outside, many of them friends or relatives of missing. “I know my nephew is here because he called me to say he can’t leave because of the fire in the building,” said Mohammed al-Tai watching the rescuers at work.

“As Daesh retreats, it will shrink from so-called state and terrorist group to just terrorist group,” said Baghdad-based security analyst Hisham al-Hashimi, author of The World of Daesh.

That will require an increased response from intelligence and security services, he said, as well as cooperation from Iraq’s Sunni Muslims, who have complained of marginalisation since the 2003 US invasion to topple Saddam Hussein.

“Their input would be of utmost importance to unmask sleeper cells that could be operating from their areas,” Hashimi said.

(Reuters)

Baghdad Bombings Claimed by ISIS Leaves Nearly 120 Dead

The twin bombings are the deadliest this year and took place despite the major victory of Iraqi forces in dislodging ISIS from their stronghold of Falluja last month.

People gather at the site of a suicide car bomb in the Karrada shopping area, in Baghdad, Iraq, July 3. Credit: Reuters/Khalid al Mousily

Baghdad: Nearly 120 people were killed and 200 wounded in two bombings overnight in Baghdad, most of them in a busy shopping area, as residents celebrated Ramadan, police and medical sources said on July 3.

The attack on the shopping area of Karrada is the deadliest since US-backed Iraqi forces last month scored a major victory when it dislodged Islamic State (ISIS) from their stronghold of Falluja, an hour’s drive west of the capital. It is also the deadliest so far this year.

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi had ordered the offensive after a series of bombings in Baghdad, saying Falluja served as a launchpad for such attacks on the capital. However, bombings have continued.

A convoy carrying Abadi who had come to tour the site of the bombings was pelted with stones and bottles by residents, angry at what they felt were false promises of better security.

A refrigerator truck packed with explosives blew up in the central district of Karrada, killing 115 people and injuring at least 200. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement circulated online by supporters of the ultra-hardline Sunni group. It said the blast was a suicide bombing.

Karrada was busy at the time as Iraqis eat out and shop late during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which ends next week with the Eid al-Fitr festival.

The White House on July 3 said the attack only strengthened the US’s resolve to confront IS. “We remain united with the Iraqi people and government in our combined efforts to destroy ISIL,” said the White House statement, referring to ISIS.

Videos posted on social media showed people running after the SUV convoy of Abadi as he left Karrada after touring the scene, throwing pavement stones, bottles of water, empty buckets and slippers, venting their anger at the inability of the security forces to protect the area.

Abadi declared three days of mourning for the victims, according to state-run media that also cited him saying he understood the angry reaction of residents.

Another video posted on social media showed a large blaze in the main street of Karrada, a largely Shi’ite district with a small Christian community and a few Sunni mosques.

Reuters TV footage taken in the morning showed at least four buildings severely damaged or partly collapsed, including a shopping mall believed to be the target, and gutted cars scattered all around.

The toll climbed during the day as rescuers pulled out more bodies from under the rubble and people succumbed to their injuries.

Comments posted on social media accused security forces of continuing to use fake bomb detectors at checkpoints filtering traffic in Baghdad, five years after the scandal broke out about a device commonly known as the ‘magic wand’.

A police officer in Baghdad confirmed these hand-held ADE 651 detectors were still in use. They were sold to Iraq and other nations by a British businessman who was jailed for 10 years in 2013 in Britain for endangering lives for profit.

Al-Shaab attack

In a second attack, a roadside bomb also blew up around midnight in a market in al-Shaab, a Shi’ite district in the north of the capital, killing at least two people, police and medical sources said.

Iraqi forces on June 26 declared the defeat of ISIS militants in Falluja, a bastion of Sunni insurgency, following a month of fighting.

Now the militants were “trying to compensate for their humiliating defeat in Falluja”, said Jasim al-Bahadli, a former army officer and security analyst in Baghdad.

“It was a mistake for the government to think that the source of the bombings was restricted to just one area,” he said. “There are sleeper cells that operate independently from each other.”

The assault on Falluja was part of a wider offensive against ISIS, which seized swathes of Iraqi territory in 2014.

Abadi said the next target of the Iraqi forces is Mosul, the de facto capital of the militants and the largest city under their control in both Iraq and Syria.

(Reuters)

Top Iraqi Court Declares PM Abadi’s Partial Cabinet Reshuffle as Invalid

Al-Abadi’s reshuffle to bring five technocrats into his cabinet had generated social and political opposition.

Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi (front 2nd L) walks during his visit to an Iraqi army base in Camp Tariq near Falluja, Iraq, June 1, 2016. Credit: Reuters/Alaa Al-Marjani/File Photo

Baghdad: A top Iraqi court on June 28 declared unconstitutional a parliament session in which deputies had approved a partial cabinet reshuffle, scrapping Prime MinisterI Haider al-Abadi’s clearest gain in a months-long political crisis.

The judgement is a setback for Abadi’s bid to replace ministers – chosen to balance Iraq’s divisions along party, ethnic and sectarian lines – with technocrats. He has warned that delays to the process could hamper the war against ISIS which controls much of north and west Iraq.

A dozen disruptive lawmakers forced nearly 200 other MPs to leave the main chamber on April 26 and vote in a separate hall to approve Abadi’s appointment of five ministers as part of an anti-corruption push.

Dissenting MPs had blocked the vote for weeks, and days later supporters of powerful Shi’ite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr stormed the parliament complex, hindering progress for several more weeks.

Parliament’s decision in April “cannot be considered valid even if the required quorum of MPs were present,” a statement from the Federal Court said, without explaining the legal justification.

The military’s campaign to retake Falluja, just west of Baghdad, has moved the spotlight away from the political crisis. But parliament, which went into recess for the Muslim holy month of Ramzan, is expected to reconvene by mid-July.

“The five ministers who were approved by parliament at the April 26 session have lost their ministerial status. The prime minister must make a new nomination for parliament to vote on,” said Iraqi legal expert Tariq Harb, who added that the ruling was final and not open to appeal.

The court cited a lack of quorum in another decision on June 28 to invalidate a separate session in which dissenting lawmakers had voted to replace the parliament speaker.

Iraqi Troops Take Back Falluja from ISIS

The operation has led to thousands of civilians seeking shelter in government camps and at least 1,800 ISIS militant deaths.

Military vehicles of the Iraqi security forces pass flag of Islamic State militants in the northwestern Golan district of Falluja, Iraq, June 25, 2016. Picture taken June 25, 2016. Credit: Reuters/Stringer

Falluja: Iraqi forces recaptured the last district held by Islamic State militants in the city of Falluja on June 26 and the general commanding the operation declared the battle complete after nearly five weeks of fighting.

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi claimed victory over Islamic State in Falluja more than a week ago but fighting continued inside the city west of Baghdad, including in the Golan district. The offensive has been backed by a US-led coalition mostly in the form of air strikes against Islamic State.

“We announce from this place in central Golan district that it has been cleaned by the counter terrorism service and we convey the good news to the Iraqi people that the battle of Falluja is over,” Lieutenant General Abdul Wahab al-Saidi told state TV.

Flanked by jubilant fighters, some waving Iraqi flags, Saidi said a few militants were still holding out in buildings. At least 1,800 Islamic State fighters were killed in the operation to retake Falluja, and the rest had fled, he said.

Government troops launched the operation on May 23 to retake Falluja, a bastion of the Sunni Muslim insurgency against the US forces that toppled Saddam Hussein, a Sunni, in 2003, and later against Shi’ite-led governments.

Abadi said last week that the recapture of Falluja would pave the way for the military to march on Mosul, Islamic State’s de facto capital.

Fighting to recapture the Iraqi city has forced more than 85,000 residents to flee to overwhelmed government-run camps. The UN says it has received allegations of abuse of civilians fleeing the city, including by members of Shi’ite armed groups supporting the offensive.

The militants seized Falluja in January 2014, six months before they declared a “caliphate” over part of Syria and Iraq.

(Reuters)

2.3 Million Iraqis May be Displaced by Upcoming Offensives Against Islamic State – UN

The prediction of such a vast humanitarian emergency creates additional complications for the Iraqi government and its US allies.

Displaced Iraqi people, who fled from Mosul because of Islamic State violence, gather at a refugee camp in the Makhmour area near Mosul, Iraq, June 15, 2016. REUTERS/Azad Lashkari

Displaced Iraqi people, who fled from Mosul because of ISIS violence, gather at a refugee camp in the Makhmour area near Mosul, Iraq, June 15, 2016. Credit: Reuters/Azad Lashkari

Baghdad: Upcoming military offensives in Iraq against ISIS, including an assault on the northern city of Mosul, could displace at least 2.3 million people, the UN humanitarian coordinator for Iraq said on Thursday, June 23.

The prediction of such a vast humanitarian emergency creates additional complications for the Iraqi government and its US allies, who have announced plans for offensives to drive ISIS fighters this year from most of their Iraqi territory.

More than 3.4 million people across Iraq have already been forced by conflict to leave their homes, according to the UN. In the past month, 85,000 people fled Falluja, an ISIS stronghold an hour’s drive from Baghdad, amid a military campaign that has recaptured large parts of the city.

Most of the displaced are from Iraq’s minority Sunni community, raising concerns among officials that US-backed military gains against ISIS will not bring stability to Iraq more than 13 years after a US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein, a Sunni.

ISIS fighters swept through much of northern and western Iraq two years ago and declared a caliphate to rule over territory there and in neighbouring Syria.

The jihadists have lost ground in recent weeks to a number of enemies on several fronts in both countries, with the main battles still looming for the caliphate’s two de facto capitals, Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria.

Lise Grande, the UN humanitarian coordinator for Iraq, told Reuters in an interview that at least 430,000 more people could be displaced this year in Anbar, Iraq’s sprawling desert province stretching west from Falluja to the Syrian border.

Government forces have retaken several cities in Anbar from ISIS in the past six months and are still pressing up the Euphrates river valley towards the border town of Qaim.

Grande said another 830,000 people would be displaced along ‘the Mosul corridor’, stretching more than 100 km (60 miles) from northern Salahuddin province towards the ISIS stronghold.

In Mosul itself, by far the largest city under the militants’ control, the worst case scenario could see one million people displaced, said Grande.

The UN projects the Mosul operation will be larger and more complex than any other humanitarian operation in the world this year.

“We’re literally talking in just a few months about doubling the number of families who are displaced in the country,” she said. “We’re trying to pre-position supplies and develop contingencies for all of those areas and we’re doing so with 30% of the appeal that we’ve asked for.”

The humanitarian community this year requested $861 million to assist 7.3 million Iraqis in need across the country, but so far it has only received about $266 million.

Iraq’s cash-strapped government, hit by low oil prices and increased military costs, has struggled to help.

Unprepared for Falluja numbers

Government-run camps are overflowing with Falluja escapees who trekked several kilometres (miles) past ISIS snipers and minefields in sweltering heat to find there was not even shade.

Grande said the humanitarian community, which has not had access to the city since the jihadists seized control in early 2014, had underestimated the number of civilians trapped inside by more than half.

Camps were overflowing within the first ten days of the assault, prompting the UN to redirect stocks from other parts of the country, including some put in place for the Mosul campaign, she said.

“We did not have enough prepared,” she said. “The needs are far outstripping our capacity.”

Many people at three main displacement sites near Falluja are stranded out in the open or packed with several families in a tent meant for six people.

Grande said with temperatures likely to top 50 Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) in coming weeks, the top priority was shelter, alongside water, food, hygiene and healthcare.

“In this heat, if families aren’t safely inside of tents, we have to worry about their position,” she said. “If we don’t get more assistance, we have to face the fact that conditions could deteriorate very sharply.”

(Reuters)

Fallujah Campaign a Model for Iraqi PM Ahead of Mosul, but Questions Remain

Iraqi forces have carried out a successful campaign in Falluja, an ISIS stronghold, but reports of human rights abuse raise concerns for the planned Mosul operative.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi speaks at a news conference during his visit to Najaf, south of Baghdad, in this file photo taken October 20, 2014. Credit: Reuters/Alaa Al-Marjani

Falluja: The rapid entry of Iraqi forces into central Falluja last week surprised many who expected a drawn-out battle with Islamic State (IS) for the bastion of Iraq’s Sunni insurgency, where some of the toughest fighting of the US occupation took place.

The campaign has offered Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi respite from a political crisis that paralysed government and turned violent when demonstrators breeched Baghdad’s heavily-fortified Green Zone.

Yet questions remain about whether Abadi – who declared victory on June 17 even though IS militants are still fighting in Falluja – can convert those military gains into political success, and what kind of model Falluja offers for the next major military campaign, against IS-held Mosul.

Abadi and his commanders, who have pledged to retake the northern Iraqi city later this year, “needed a fast victory because they are very aware of setting precedents,” said Renad Mansour, an Iraq scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center.

But “Falluja was a distraction. The protests in Baghdad will come back. People will say, ‘OK we got Falluja, what’s happening politically? What are the changes?'”

Iraq’s government has been gridlocked for months after rivals blocked Abadi’s plans for a cabinet reshuffle that he said was aimed at fighting rampant corruption in a country nearly bankrupted by low global oil prices.

Thousands of demonstrators, mostly loyal to Shi’ite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, took to the streets earlier this year to pressurise Abadi to replace party-affiliated ministers with independent technocrats, which the political elite has resisted.

The prime minister’s decision to attack Falluja last month, against the apparent wishes of the US allies, allowed him to rally the Shi’ite political class who were pressing him to retake the city, seen as a launchpad for recent bombings in nearby Baghdad.

Falluja has been seen as a stronghold of Sunni Muslim insurgents for more than a decade and the US forces that toppled Saddam Hussein, a Sunni, suffered heavy losses in two battles in 2004. Iraqi forces have so far incurred a fraction of those casualties.

“The $6 million question is: do (the militants) head for Mosul, do they stay in Falluja, do they do asymmetric attacks elsewhere?” said an official from one of the countries in the US-led coalition backing Iraqi forces.

More than 85,000 people have fled Falluja, according to the UN, which estimated the population before the operation began at around 90,000, already just a third of its size before IS seized control in early 2014.

A lawmaker close to Abadi said the offensive had helped him overcome a perception of weakness among powerful rivals and ordinary Iraqis.

But another lawmaker and a Western diplomat said that while Falluja advances are bound to give the prime minister a “feel-good factor” in the short term, there is no indication they will help advance his political agenda.

“When parliament resumes he’ll probably point to Falluja,” the diplomat said, but the demands of lawmakers and the street are “not going to go away because Falluja’s been liberated.”

Lessons for Mosul

The Falluja operation has, at least, provided a possible model for the offensive in Mosul, IS’s de facto capital in Iraq, which is still being planned, according to Iraqi and Western officials.

The assault was spearheaded by Iraq’s elite counter-terrorism service, which has learned to fight the jihadists’ mix of guerrilla and conventional tactics, with army and police units also taking key positions. Around 85 coalition air strikes supported the advances.

Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias, which stirred fears of sectarian violence by insisting on entering the mostly Sunni city, were confined largely to the outskirts, but they still stirred controversy.

Days after Abadi announced the assault, Iranian media published pictures of what they said was a visit by Iranian General Qassem Soleimani to Shi’ite militias fighting alongside the army. Soleimani also appeared during last year’s battle for Tikrit where Shi’ite militias were accused of rights abuses.

An Iranian news outlet said he moved in recent days to Syria, where Iranian-backed militias are supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against Sunni rebels.

Even playing a peripheral role in Falluja, the militias faced allegations from the local provincial governor, which they denied, that they executed 49 Sunni men and detained more than 600 others.

“You’ve got to give Abadi credit for keeping the militias out of Falluja,” former US diplomat Robert Ford said, adding that the government had quickly put an end to the alleged abuses.

Authorities have made arrests in relation to the claims, but the UN on June 22 reported further allegations of serious rights violations by armed groups fighting alongside the military in Falluja.

“Abadi has minimal leverage over these Iranian-backed militias, so if anyone is actually held accountable, it would indicate Abadi’s rising political weight,” the Western diplomat said in a recent article.

But residents of Mosul who spoke to Reuters said they feared similar abuse if Shi’ite militias were allowed to participate in the offensive on their city.

“We saw what happened in (Falluja) and it confirms our decision to refuse the Hashid Shaabi,” Nineveh provincial councilman Abdul Rahman al-Jubouri told Reuters in Erbil, referring to the coalition of mostly Shi’ite militias allied to the government.

(Reuters)

Military Gains Against ISIS Not Enough, Could Backfire: US Officials

Eliminating the threat ISIL poses will require coupling the military gains in Iraq and Syria with political and economic reforms, say US officials and outside experts.

A member of the Iraqi security forces prepares to fire a mortar during clashes with Islamic State militants in Khadraa neighborhood in Falluja, Iraq, June 14, 2016. Credit: Reuters/Stringer

A member of the Iraqi security forces prepares to fire a mortar during clashes with ISIS militants in Khadraa neighborhood in Falluja, Iraq, June 14, 2016. Credit: Reuters/Stringer

Washington: President Barack Obama and some administration officials have hailed recent military gains against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, but other US officials and outside experts warn that the US-backed air and ground campaign is far from eradicating the radical Islamic group, and could even backfire.

While ISIS’s defeats in Iraq and Syria have erased its image of invincibility, they threaten to give it greater legitimacy in the eyes of disaffected Sunni Muslims because Shi’ite and Kurdish fighters are a major part of the campaign, some US intelligence officials argue.

A second danger, some US officials said, is that as the group loses ground in the Iraqi city of Falluja and elsewhere, it will turn increasingly to less conventional military tactics and to directing and inspiring more attacks against “soft” targets in Europe, the US and elsewhere.

One US intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, warned that in response to losing Falluja and other cities the group likely would turn more to guerrilla tactics to disrupt efforts to restore government services.

“We can expect ISIL to harass local forces that are holding cities it previously controlled, thereby drawing out battles into protracted campaigns,” he said.

The territory held by ISIL has enabled it to build up revenues through oil and taxes, provided it a base to launch attacks on Baghdad, and acted as a recruiting tool for foreign fighters drawn to the self-proclaimed Islamic caliphate.

President Barack Obama said on June 14 – two days after a gunman pledging allegiance to ISIS killed 49 people in Orlando – that the militant group was losing “the money that is its lifeblood” as it continues to lose territory.

Brett McGurk, the presidential envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL, told a White House briefing on June 10 that the group has lost half the territory it had seized in Iraq, about 20 percent of its self-proclaimed caliphate in Syria, and at least 30% of its oil production, which accounts for half its revenue.

But ISIS fighters in Iraq are already showing signs of adapting a guerrilla war-style strategy, Seth Jones, an analyst with the RAND Corp, told Reuters.

“It looks like the areas that the ISIS has lost, they are generally abandoning, and that would mean preparing to fight another day,” he said.

Despite the progress against ISIL on the battlefield and in the financial realm, CIA Director John Brennan told the Senate Intelligence Committee last week: “Our efforts have not reduced the group’s terrorism capability and global reach.”

“The resources needed for terrorism are very modest, and the group would have to suffer even heavier losses of territory, manpower, and money for its terrorist capacity to decline significantly,” he said.

Encouraging lone wolves

Hassan Hassan, a terrorism expert at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, told the US Senate Homeland Security committee on Tuesday that the Orlando attack showed the group’s territorial losses hadn’t diminished its broader appeal.

“The ISIS’s international appeal has become untethered from its military performance on the ground,” he said.

Sunnis in Iraq no longer view the ISIL radicals as liberators, and the Shi’ite role in the fighting is less important than it was a year ago, officials in Baghdad told Reuters. As a result, they said, the Iraqi army has gained Sunni acceptance and is seen less as a Shi’ite-led sectarian force than it was under former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

But the risk that offensives against ISIL involving Shi’ite forces could foment sectarian tensions and help the group have been underscored by allegations that 49 Sunni men were executed after surrendering to a Shi’ite militia supporting the army offensive to retake Falluja.

Such reports “feed into ISIL’s narrative,” the US intelligence official said.

Former US ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker, who visited the country in March, wrote last week in the Cipher Brief, an online intelligence publication, that extremist Shi’ite militias are on the scene in Falluja. Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani has underscored Iran’s role in the conflict by appearing publicly on the battlefield.

As ISIL has faced military setbacks, the flow of foreign fighters travelling to Iraq and Syria has dropped significantly, according to the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL.

European counter terrorism officials said some 300-400 already have returned to Britain, raising concerns about what they called an increasing convergence of IS ideology and mentally unstable individuals.

So called “lone wolf” attackers like the Orlando shooter are ISIS’s way of “overwhelming their enemies with threats that have to be run to ground,” Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University in Washington, told Reuters.

“That is the true intention beyond the lone wolf attacks — to distract and overwhelm the attention of law enforcement and intelligence.”

Eliminating the threat ISIL poses will require coupling the military gains in Iraq and Syria with political and economic reforms, say US officials and outside experts.

“They became a strong organisation because of the political failure,” Hassan said. “My fear is that there’s so much focus on the military component, rather than on the political, and social and religious dimensions.”

(Reuters)

Iraqi Forces Retake Land Claimed by ISIS South of Mosul

The commander of the operation blamed the slow pace on a lack of tanks and said he did not have enough men to hold ground after it was retaken from the militants.

Members of the Hashid Shaabi Shi’ite milita gather in the west of Samarra, in the desert of Anbar, as they prepare to depart for Mosul to fight against Islamic State, March 1, 2016. Credit: Reuters/Stringer

Erbil: Iraqi troops advanced against Islamic State south of Mosul on Sunday as the US-led coalition intensifies its campaign against the militants on multiple fronts across their self-proclaimed caliphate.

Officers involved in the operation said Iraqi forces had moved towards the village of Haj Ali in tanks and armoured vehicles under cover of coalition airstrikes and artillery fire, capturing another village on the way.

“In the beginning they resisted but when they saw the force they withdrew,” said an Iraqi officer speaking from the newly recaptured village of Kharaib Jabr, adjacent to Haj Ali.

Haj Ali sits on the eastern bank of the Tigris river, opposite the Islamic State hub of Qayara, where there is an airfield that is set to serve as a staging ground for future operations to recapture Mosul, about 60 km (40 miles) north.

Islamic State overran Mosul two years ago and went on to proclaim a caliphate straddling Iraq and Syria but has come under increasing pressure in recent months, losing ground to an array of forces.

Iraqi forces are also advancing on the edge of the Islamic State bastion of Falluja further south, while in Syria US-backed forces are encircling the militant-held town of Manbij.

Iraqi troops were deployed to the northern Makhmour area earlier this year and launched an operation in March touting it as the beginning of a bigger campaign to retake Mosul – the largest city under militant control.

Since then, Iraqi forces have made modest gains, capturing a handful of villages on the eastern bank of the river Tigris.

The commander of the operation blamed the slow pace on a lack of tanks and said he did not have enough men to hold ground after it was retaken from the militants.

Last week, Iraq deployed an armoured division along with boats and bridges to cross the river to Qayara, control of which would also isolate Mosul from territory the militants control further south and east.

(Reuters)

Success of Iraqi Prime Minister’s Leadership, ISIS Campaign, Contingent on Falluja Battle

The battle in Falluja has allowed Abadi to shift the focus domestically away from a crisis that unfolded when he failed to push through a cabinet reshuffle he sought as part of his drive to fight corruption.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi speaks during a news conference in Baghdad, Iraq in this still image from video April 15, 2016. Credit: Reuters/Iraqiya TV via Reuters TV/Files

Baghdad: Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi expects two victories from the battle underway in Falluja, an Islamic States stronghold near Baghdad. The first is over IS, the second over political rivals, including some backed by Iran.

Retaking Falluja before parliament returns from Ramadan in mid-July would enable Abadi to consolidate his leadership, allies and political analysts said.

It would also clear the path for the Iraqi army to march on the northern city of Mosul, with a view to capturing Islamic State’s Iraqi ‘capital’ this year.

A prolonged battle for Falluja on the other hand would erode Abadi‘s ability to end a political crisis over measures to fight graft. This would open the way for rivals to challenge his rule – and delay the US-backed campaign to defeat Islamic State.

“The stakes are high for the prime minister and for the campaign on Daesh (Islamic State),” said Baghdad-based security analyst Hisham al-Hashimi.

“There is an undeclared deadline by which he needs to finish with Falluja, and that’s when parliament reconvenes,” said Hashimi, the author of the book The World of Daesh.

His assessment was shared by a senior government official who spoke to Reuters in Baghdad.

The battle that Abadi started in Falluja on May 23 has allowed him to shift the focus domestically away from a crisis that unfolded when he failed to push through a cabinet reshuffle he sought as part of his drive to fight corruption.

Abadi, a moderate Shi’ite politician, was elected two years ago on promises to curb corruption, defeat IS and to mend a rift with the Sunni minority.

Demonstrations held in support of his reforms by followers of Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr turned violent. Since April, protesters have twice stormed the Green Zone district that houses government offices, parliament and embassies.

“Instead of fighting in the Green Zone, he (Abadi) chose to fight in Falluja,” said Hassan Hassan, the author of the book ISIS: inside the Army of Terror.

Cross head

The fear, Hassan said, is that a stalled battle in Falluja will undermine the battle for Mosul or take a sectarian turn with the involvement of Shi’ite militias.

The collapse of the Iraqi army when IS pushed into Mosul in June 2014 left Abadi reliant for ground troops on Shi’ite militias, known as Hashid Shaabi, or Popular Mobilisation. These were trained and influenced by Iran.

But as the army has gained strength over the past year, it has led offensives on the insurgents, recapturing Ramadi, the capital of Sunni Anbar province, west of Baghdad.

Shi’ite militias resent seeing their role diminished.

The government official said the battle inside the city of Falluja had been assigned to elite army units, with Sunni tribal fighters following behind to hold the ground.

The Hashid, he said, should stay on the outskirts enforcing the encirclement and as back up.

Abadi has been keen to defuse sectarian tension as Sunni politicians have voiced alarm that the Shi’ite militias would seek to settle scores with the population of the city.

He has pledged to punish those who commit “violations” against civilians. He said the offensive had slowed down to protect those who remained in the city, estimated by the United Nations at 90,000.

The United Nations said on Tuesday said there were “extremely distressing, credible reports” of men and boys executed and abused after fleeing Falluja into territory controlled by government forces and their Shi’ite militia allies.

People who managed to escape said they lived on stale dates for months as they could no longer afford to buy supplies under insurgent control. Between 500 and 700 fighters are in Falluja, according to a US military estimate. The Shi’ite militias say their number is closer to 2,500.

Abadi is trying to stay the course in his policy of building bridges with Iraq’s Sunnis and Sunni Arab neighbouring states. He is trying to distance Baghdad from the struggle for regional supremacy between Shi’ite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia.

After Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Brigade, showed up near Falluja visiting Iraqi allies, for example, Abadi sent ministers on a tour of Arab nations to allay their concern.

Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a Shi’ite, visited Cairo and Amman with a senior Iraqi Sunni cleric, Abdul Latif Humayim, in a show of national unity.

(Reuters)