All Countries Should Share COVID-19 Information With WHO: India

‘We hope countries will closely coordinate with the WHO and share necessary information so that we can come out of COVID-19 faster,’ MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said at his weekly briefing on Thursday.

New Delhi: A day after the World Health Organisation (WHO) head lamented the lack COVID-19 data from China, India on Thursday, January 5, hoped that all countries would share “necessary information” with the UN’s top health body.

On Wednesday, WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the Chinese government had been asked to share more details about COVID-19, including hospitalisation rates and genetic sequences. “Data remains essential for WHO to carry out regular, rapid and robust risk assessments of the global situation,” he said at a press briefing in Geneva.

When asked about the WHO chief’s remarks, Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said that India urged all countries to share all the required data. “We hope countries will closely coordinate with the WHO and share necessary information so that we can come out of COVID-19 faster,” he said at his weekly briefing on Thursday.

Earlier, the WHO’s emergencies chief Dr. Michael Ryan had noted that there were concerns that Chinese officials were recording COVID-19 deaths as per a very narrow definition. While China officially reported just 13 COVID-19 deaths in December, there have been increasing reports of hospitals being swamped by thousands of cases every day.

US president Joe Biden has expressed concern that China “haven’t been that forthcoming” in sharing information about the latest outbreak.

Also read: WHO Says No New Variant of Coronavirus Found in China

In response to the criticism, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told media on Thursday that China “has always, in accordance with the principles of legality, timeliness, openness and transparency, maintained close communication and shared relevant information and data with the WHO in a timely manner”.

Meanwhile, the MEA spokesperson also responded to the newly appointed Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang’s published article in an American news magazine last month.

In an essay dated December 26, Qin wrote, “As to the border issues between China and India, the status quo is that both sides are willing to ease the situation and jointly protect peace along their borders.”

Bagchi reiterated that India believes that ensuring peace and tranquillity in the border areas is essential for the development of our relationship. “So, too, is the observance of bilateral agreements and refraining from unilateral attempts to change the status quo of the boundary,” he added.

Watch | As India Gasps for Oxygen, We Ask: Could This Disaster Have Been Prevented?

For consecutive days, the country has been reporting more than 300,000 new cases of the coronavirus infection on a single day.

The COVID-19 pandemic in India has taken a frightening form. For consecutive days, the country has been reporting more than 300,000 new cases of the coronavirus infection on a single day.

After a record 349,691 lakh new cases were reported in the last 24 hours, the total number of COVID-19 cases have increased to 16,960,172. According to data released by the Union health ministry till Friday, more than 24 lakh people are still vulnerable to infection.

 

In Ghaziabad and Other Districts, Data on Ground Disproves UP’s ‘Zero COVID Deaths’ Claim

Interviews with officials and workers at cremation grounds across the state provide a glimpse into the massive official undercounting underway.

New Delhi: The Uttar Pradesh government’s COVID-19 bulletin on Friday reported zero deaths from Agra, Ghaziabad and Jhansi districts in the preceding 24 hours, and just one death from Bareilly. In total, the UP government bulletin of April 16 said that 46 out of the state’s 75 districts did not have any COVID-19 related deaths on April 15. These districts include Barabanki, Azamgarh, Sonbhadra, Chandauli, Bijnor, Bahraich, Amroha, Shamli, Kannauj, Mau, Sambhal, Bhadohi, Eta and Hathras among others. 

Statewide, the total death count for Friday was 103, as per the government bulletin, and Lucknow alone recorded 35 of those deaths.

For the whole of April, the official bulletin recorded zero deaths on 13 days for Agra, 15 days for Bareilly, 14 days for Jhansi and 15 days for Ghaziabad. While the official data suggests these districts have not been hit hard by the coronavirus, reports of people complaining of not getting beds for their relatives suffering from COVID-19 and huge crowds at crematorium grounds in these districts tell a different tale.

“Struggling to cremate the dead” in Ghaziabad 

Officially, Ghaziabad has reported only four “COVID-related deaths” so far in April. Yet, workers at the Hindon cremation ground in the district say that they are struggling to cremate the huge number of bodies reaching there on an everyday basis. One worker told The Wire that more than 50 bodies of COVID patients had arrived on Friday, at least 15 of them meant for the electric crematorium. On Saturday, he said that the situation remained the same, as close to 50 bodies were brought throughout the day. On both these days, curiously, the official bulletin released by the UP government maintained that there were zero deaths in the district.

Patients standing in line outside government hospitals is indicative of the situation getting out of control in Ghaziabad, as India has become the country with the highest number of daily recorded cases in the world. The United States is a distant second. 

The grimness of the situation became all the more apparent when General V.K. Singh, a Union minister who represents Ghaziabad in the Lok Sabha, tweeted a call for help to the state administration on behalf of a COVID patient in his constituency. His tweet, now deleted, read, “Please help us, my brother is in need of a hospital bed for COVID-19 treatment. Currently, we are not able to arrange for a bed in Ghaziabad.” 

This ministerial cry for help raises obvious questions about the state of medical infrastructure in the Yogi-led UP government.

Also read: COVID-19 Is Surging In India – but Will There Be Fewer Deaths This Time?

Virendra Singh Kushwaha, a resident of Ghaziabad and a lawyer, had come to the Hindon cremation ground to get his colleague’s father cremated on Saturday. He told The Wire, “After chasing multiple hospitals for four days, we finally managed to get him a bed in a hospital. Even after being admitted, he couldn’t get the required oxygen and other medical facilities. And he died.” He then went ahead to stand in the waiting line for the cremation. “We came here early in the morning, that is why we have got the eighth token,” he said. 

The electric crematorium in the district is witnessing technical problems and hence COVID-19 bodies are being burnt using wood at the cremation ground. A worker at the cremation ground told The Wire, “If anybody wants to know the real number of COVID deaths, they should visit here and see.”

Another person waiting in line complained that manual cremation takes time but since the electric gas-based system is not currently working, they have no choice but to opt for manual wood-based cremation.

While the official bulletin showed zero deaths in Ghaziabad district on April 16, Mahendra Singh Tanwar, municipal commissioner of the district told the media that close to 10 bodies had arrived for cremation at the ground. 

While speaking to the media the next day, Tanwar said, “For regulation of COVID-19 bodies, we started the token system there. I personally visited the ground today and saw that everything was fine.” 

Discrepancies in Bareilly data

In Bareilly, the state government’s bulletin reported only one death on April 15, due to COVID-19. In the whole of April, the state government has reported only seven deaths from the district. However, the actual numbers are likely to be much higher. The main cremation grounds in Bareilly – the City Shamshan Bhoomi and Sanjay Nagar cremation ground – usually received about 20 bodies a day before the second wave of COVID-19 hit the country. The numbers now have shockingly doubled. 

The crematorium ground committee says that they are not facing any issues during these cremations. “It takes three days for one pyre to get vacant after a cremation, but now that the dead are increasing, we are making special arrangements for them by making separate pyres on separate areas of the ground,” one committee member told The Wire. 

The crowd at the district hospital in Bareilly. Photo: Special arrangement.

The local health department data is also different. On April 16, the health department said that there were seven deaths in the past 24 hours, as compared to the zero deaths reported by the UP government bulletin. 

On April 16, according to a worker at the City Shamshan Bhoomi, there were seven cremations at this ground alone as per the COVID-19 protocol. And there were seven more at the Sanjay Nagar cremation ground, as per their data. On  April 17, the health department said that there were four COVID-19 related deaths in the district. However, according to the cremation ground records, there were seven cases of COVID-19 related deaths at the City Shamshan Bhoomi, and six at the Sanjay Nagar cremation ground.

“Because of a sudden rise of COVID-19 cases, the death toll has increased. The COVID-positive dead bodies are being cremated as per the guidelines. There is, so far, no scarcity of wood. However, its rates are increasing because some wood also has to be transported from Uttarakhand,” Mahendra Patel, general secretary at Sanjay Nagar cremation ground told The Wire.

There are close to 100 graveyards too in the district, including big ones such as the Bakarganj graveyard, Khad waali graveyard and Chaupla graveyard, the COVID-19 death records of which remain unreported. In April last year, Bareilly was declared “corona-free”.

Also read: Varanasi: About Half of COVID-19 Deaths at Crematoria, Graveyards Not Recorded

Cremation ground accounts suggest dozens of unrecorded COVID deaths in Agra 

The situation is perhaps worse in Agra, for which the UP government bulletin has reported zero deaths on 13 days in the month of April. On April 17, while the UP government bulletin said there were only four COVID-19 related deaths, 48 dead bodies had turned up at the Tajganj cremation ground in Agra alone. Several workers at this cremation ground told The Wire that before the second wave, about 15 bodies would normally be cremated daily at the ground. Now, the numbers have doubled. “On 17 April,  around 30 bodies were cremated using the wood-based cremation, and another 30 using the gas-based electric crematorium,” Rahul, a worker said. 

Rahul further said that he has never seen so many bodies come in a single day. “It takes over an hour to cremate one body. But now, the situation has worsened,” he added. 

According to the crematorium records, there were 18 electric and 18 normal cremations on April 12 and 13, 19 electric and 29 normal cremations on April 14, 24 electric and 26 normal cremations on April 15, 27 electric and 32 wood-based cremations on April 16, and 30 electric and 38 wood-based cremations on April 17. But the UP government bulletin has maintained that only two deaths occurred on April 12, 3 on April 17 and 3 on April 18. As for April  13 and 15, according to the UP government bulletin, there were no COVID-19 deaths.

Sanjiv Gupta, incharge of the electric crematorium at Tajganj ground said, “Many bodies are coming in these days, and hence people are having to wait.”

On Sunday, the district recorded 440 fresh COVID-19 cases. Currently, there are ab0ut 1,906 active cases in the district according to the health department. 

Fourfold increase of number of dead in Jhansi

In Jhansi too, the official numbers do not reflect the real scenario. The number of deaths in the district have seen a sharp rise in the past week. There is almost a fourfold increase in the number of dead bodies coming in at different cremation grounds. Due to the lack of platforms to make pyres for all the bodies coming in, some bodies are being burnt on the floor itself.

The Unnao gate cremation ground alone witnessed eight cremations on Friday and seven on Saturday. Rajkumar, a worker at this cremation ground told The Wire that two-three bodies would turn up for cremation here on usual days. “But the numbers have suddenly risen,” he noted.

There are similar conditions at the Bada Gaon Gate cremation ground. There are 14 platforms for pyres here, all of which were full on Saturday. Nandanpura cremation ground was also full with 12 bodies burning at once. Due to the lack of platforms for pyres at the Bada Gaon Gate cremation ground as well as at Nandanpura cremation ground, some bodies here too are being burnt on the floor. At Shyam Chaupra cremation ground, four to five bodies are coming in everyday for cremation.

The increasing number of deaths in the district have caused alarm among the general public, but the administration says that only four people have died of COVID-19 in the past week. The UP government bulletin has recorded just seven deaths for the district in April so far.

Pradeep Jain Aditya, former Union minister from the Congress and a former MP of the Jhansi constituency says that there is a big “conspiracy” by the government to hide the real COVID-19 death toll. “No data of people dying in nursing homes is coming out, the real data is also being hidden,” he added.

Between 10-17 April, there were 4,024 COVID-19 positive cases in the district and the official numbers say that five people have died.

The municipal commissioner of Jhansi, Avnish Rai, is down with COVID-19. In his absence, The Wire contacted Shadab Aslam, additional municipal commissioner, who said that no records of COVID-19 deaths are available with him. 

An official of the Maharani Laxmibai Medical College Hospital of Jhansi also confirmed to The Wire on condition of anonymity that there is a discrepancy in the numbers being reported by the state government.

Meanwhile, Sunday’s UP government bulletin has reported a total of 129 COVID-19 related deaths in the state.

COVID-19: Is India Really Doing ‘Better’ than Other Countries?

When a country does well, a host of figures show that and not just the convenient ones.

New Delhi: There is “evidence” for everything. This seems to be the motto of the present government in India. By intentionally cherry-picking the data, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has been trying for the past few months to deny the growth of COVID-19 cases in India and hail the lockdown as a success.

In the latest attempt to suppress evidence and ignore inconvenient data, Lav Agarwal, joint secretary at the ministry, said that “India’s is among the lowest COVID-19 fatality rates in the world”. He also claimed in a press briefing on Tuesday that “India has a low number of cases per one lakh people (lower than Spain, Belgium, the US and Mexico)” and “this is significant if one considers the availability of resources and population density in India”.

This is a classic case of cherry-picking data to mislead citizens into thinking that there is nothing to worry about because few (conveniently picked) countries are doing worse. To examine the credibility of these claims, we must take into the account all available information, including doubling rates, numbers of tests conducted and fatality rates of as many countries as we can. That’s why we created a comprehensive database of 171 countries of the world to see how they are fighting COVID-19.

Total and active cases

If you sort this table by total numbers of cases, you will find that India is positioned at seventh, ahead of Germany, Turkey, France, Iran, Peru and Canada. With 8,392 cases in the last 24 hours (biggest jump so far), the growth rate of COVID-19 in India is increasing even after two months of lockdown.

A better understanding of the state of COVID-19 in countries can be gathered by looking at the total number of active cases. Active cases show the current caseload on the system. A higher active case load means that more people are seeking treatment, and more people are susceptible to the virus. India is at number 5, just below the US, UK, Russia and Brazil, if you sort the table by the number of active cases.

An important element in the data here is the doubling time. Doubling time shows the number of days it takes for total confirmed cases to double and is a good indicator to see the growth of COVID-19.

India’s doubling rate is way higher (cases double every 14 days) than any other country sitting above it in the table – United states (35), Russia (20), UK (35), Spain (56), Italy (55), and Germany (54). The only exception to this is Brazil with a doubling time of just 13 days. Similarly, countries immediately below it in the list of total cases, also have a longer doubling time than India.

Also read: India’s Lockdown Has Failed. Here’s What We Can Learn From it.

Fatality rate

With a fatality rate (percentage of deaths per cases detected) of 3%, India definitely has a lower case fatality rate than Spain, Belgium, the US and Mexico, as the health ministry made it a point to say. What the ministry did not say, however, is that more than 100 countries in total and eight countries in the top 20 (including Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan) have a lower case fatality rate than India.

The fatality rate is also not a good indicator to show the success of the lockdown, as governments can easily fudge it by not adding the comorbidity deaths.

Per million people 

Many claims have been made by MoHFW, India, where they take into account the large population of India to show a low number of cases per million people or per lakh people. To fully understand this data, we also need to take into account the testing rates of countries. If a country is testing less, it’s much obvious that the number of cases per million people will appear less.

This is where the following table comes into play:

Indeed, India has low cases per million people (117 cases per million people), compared to the US (5197 cases per million people) or Italy (3825 cases per million people). However, India is also testing way less than any of these countries. The US is testing 19 times, and Italy is testing 25 times more than India.

India is positioned way below at 71 (of 84 countries who are providing testing data) in the number of tests per million people. It is testing just 2763 samples per million people (almost equal to Pakistan).

This can also well be a reason for why we have a low rate or cases per million.

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The hard fact is that the number of cases in India has been increasing even after two months of lockdown and many states of India are running out of hospital beds and staff. The epidemic curve of COVID-19 cases in India doesn’t seem to be flattening while other countries like Russia, the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany, Turkey, Canada, Belgium have almost bent the curve. MoHFW press conferences should also focus on highlighting the steps they are taking to change the curve, other than presenting anecdotal evidence.

Also read: Fighting COVID-19 on a Wing, a Prayer and an Acronym

Look at South Korea, for example. South Korea has completely bent the curve, by reducing the number of active cases to just 735, increasing the doubling time to 85 days and reducing the fatality rate to 2. This they have achieved by higher testing – 16,823 tests per million people – almost seven times more than India.

When a country does well, all of these figures show that and not just the convenient ones.

Here are a few countries who are bending the curve:

The text of this article was updated on June 1 with the latest Indian data on cases and tests. The attached data tables auto update, based on new data coming in.

Note: We are tracking the COVID-19 cases in India here.

Devesh Kumar is a data scientist and researcher at Reuters. He designed the COVID-19 Growth and Response Tracker for The Wire.