Lawmakers Will Attempt to Oust UK PM Truss This Week

Britain, engulfed in a political crisis, has lost three prime ministers since it voted to leave the European Union in 2016.

Britain: British lawmakers will try to oust Prime Minister Liz Truss this week despite Downing Street’s warning that it could trigger a general election, the Daily Mail reported.

More than 100 members of parliament (MPs) belonging to the governing Conservative Party are ready to submit letters of no confidence in Truss to Graham Brady, the head of the Conservative Party’s committee which organises the leadership contest, the tabloid reported, quoting unnamed sources.

Britain, engulfed in a political crisis, has lost three prime ministers since it voted to leave the European Union in 2016.

The MPs will urge Brady to tell Truss that “her time is up” or to change the political party rules to allow an immediate vote of confidence in her leadership, the report said.

Graham is said to be resisting the move, arguing that the Truss, along with newly appointed Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, deserve a chance to set out economic strategy in a budget on October 31, the report added.

Separately, The Times reported that some lawmakers have held secret discussions on replacing Truss with a new leader.

Truss, who won the Conservative Party leadership last month after promising to slash taxes, is fighting for her political survival after ditching key parts of the programme.

The chaos has fuelled discontent in the party, which is falling behind the opposition Labour Party in opinion polls.

(Reuters)

British Home Secretary Braverman Wades in and Puts a Spanner in the UK-India Trade Deal

She is also against more Indian migrants and students, accusing them of overstaying their visas.

London: Cutting a somewhat insignificant looking figure on a late-night television show when Boris Johnson was about to resign as prime minister three months ago, Suella Braverman announced to a bemused television panel that she would stand in the contest to succeed him. She was the first candidate publicly to state her intentions, but neither Robert Peston, the ITV interviewer, nor subsequent media reports seemed to take the then little-known attorney general very seriously.

Born to Kenyan Indian and Mauritian parents who moved to Britain in the 1960s, Braverman has, however, proved to be ambitious, ruthlessly controversial and outspoken. That has led to her playing a seemingly leading role in slowing progress on the current India-UK free trade deal (FTA) negotiations by opposing the sort of economic migration that her parents enjoyed.

Though quickly eliminated from the leadership contest that eventually produced Liz Truss as a crisis-prone prime minister, Braverman strengthened her post-Brexit popularity within the anti-immigration and anti-woke right wing of the party during the campaign. That led to her being made home secretary, one of the four top posts in the cabinet, at the age of 42 – even though she lacked the experience of most predecessors.

Along with Priti Patel, who she followed as home secretary, Braverman is far to the right of other top politicians of South Asian descent, notably Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid.

Her stance horrifies many others from the subcontinent because she is denying would-be new immigrants the success that she is able to enjoy as a result of the opportunities given to her parents when they were economic migrants. She has said she is proud of what her parents achieved – her mother became an NHS nurse and local councillor in north London, and her father worked for a housing association.

Along with Patel, Braverman’s motives are widely thought to stem as much from political ambition as ideology. Both pander to the Conservative Party’s 80,000 largely right-wing members who elect the leader. They want to show they are “whiter than the whitest of Cheltenham colonels,” I was told, controversially but maybe aptly, by a friend of Indian origin.

Last week during the Conservative Party’s chaotic party conference, Braverman horrified government insiders by opposing more open immigration during a Spectator magazine interview for Indian students, key workers and others being included in the trade agreement that Truss and Narendra Modi had been aiming to sign by Diwali. That festival is celebrated at the end of next week and the target now has slipped to later in the year, unless some sort of interim deal is concocted.

Braverman also infuriated British universities with complaints about students’ extended families and said she wanted to drive down immigration, even though Truss’s economic growth needs immigrants to help fill over one million job vacancies.

Other cabinet ministers cashed in on the conference’s free-for-all and rebelled against Truss, who had been weakened a few days earlier by a disastrous mini-Budget and a financial crisis, but Braverman was perhaps the most disruptive. She has gone quiet publicly since then and last weekend joined a chorus of party leaders appealing for unity behind Truss.

British Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng attend the annual Conservative Party conference, in Birmingham, Britain, October 2, 2022. Photo: Reuters/Hannah McKay

In The Spectator interview, she said she had “concerns about having an open borders migration policy with India” because she didn’t “think that’s what people voted for with Brexit”.

In the context of the trade agreement, she said there could be flexibility for students and entrepreneurs, though she had reservations. “Look at migration in this country – the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants. We even reached an agreement with the Indian government last year to encourage and facilitate better cooperation in this regard.”

The remark about India not abiding by the agreement to take back over-stayers is in line with Home Office grumbles over several years. It brought a predictable response from the Indian government that said it was committed to facilitating the returnees and awaited “demonstrable progress” from the UK.

Braverman talked about immigration in other interviews and has complained about the number of dependents who accompanies students – “family members who can piggyback onto their student visa.”

Lord Joe Johnson, who was universities minister in his elder brother Boris Johnson’s government, said her ideas on foreign students “bode ill for her period as Home Secretary if this is going to be her approach to, frankly, one of the most promising export industries that the UK has”. Without international students, the government could “kiss goodbye” to its ambition for Britain to become “a science superpower”.

The reverberations from the interview continued and led to a story in the UK’s Times newspaper on October 12 headlined “Indian trade deal in peril after Suella Braverman migrant comments”. This quoted anonymous sources from India saying the “relationship has taken a step back” while a British source alleged Indian officials were “apoplectic”.

In parallel, India’s Economic Times ran a headline that the deal was “stuck over access to skilled workers”. It said India had hardened its position demanding easier immigration into the UK amid the concerns raised by Braverman. A Delhi trade department spokesman was quoted saying India would not “sacrifice quality for speed”.

There are many other issues as yet unresolved in the trade negotiations where subjects range from access in India for Scottish whisky and British cars. A stumbling block is the UK wanting effective protection such as international arbitration for UK investments and freedom to store business data overseas, both of which India resists.

But apoplectic or not, relations between the countries seem as cordial as ever, at least at top levels.

India’s new high commissioner in London Vikram Doraiswami arrived three weeks ago and has been extremely active with a country-wide tour. Those he has met include King Charles, at a reception in Scotland, Liz Truss in a Downing Street reception, plus regional leaders and Keir Starmer, who heads the Labour Party.

Ultimately, the trade agreement prospects could rest on whether Truss has enough prime ministerial authority to overrule her home secretary in the interests of a deal that would be good for the British economy. Usually, a prime minister would be able to do that – but these are not usual times. Truss’s future is in doubt, and it might just be easier to let issues slide for now.

Braverman may however not have won the admirers and supporters she desires in the past week with her outbursts and could have even reduced her chances of stepping into No 10 Downing Street if Truss loses the job before the next general election in 2024.

John Elliott is a journalist.

Watch | ‘Rishi Sunak Has Very Good Chance of Becoming UK PM’: Former Minister Andrew Mitchell

In an interview to Karan Thapar, UK MP Andrew Mitchell says Sunak becoming prime minister is “in the best interests of the Conservative Party as well as the best interests of the country.”

One of the British Conservative Party’s most senior and influential members has said, “Rishi Sunak has an extremely good chance of winning the prime ministership,” adding that he will be supporting him.

Andrew Mitchell, former Secretary to State for International Development and former chief whip and a Conservative MP of over 30 years, however, accepted that it’s “likely to be quite a tough fight” and that Rishi Sunak is “not the front runner at the moment.”

In a 22-minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Andrew Mitchell says, “It will be a close race,” adding that “the dye will be cast early on” because the voting forms will be sent out in August and many people will vote shortly after receiving them. The result, however, will only be announced on September 5.

Mitchell believes Sunak becoming prime minister is “in the best interests of the Conservative Party as well as the best interests of the country.”

In the interview, Mitchell explained there are two factors working in Sunak’s favour. First, “his qualities, experience and character will propel him to the prime ministership of the United Kingdom.” Second, Mitchell says that several polls show that “Rishi Sunak is most likely to beat Keir Starmer,” the leader of Britain’s Labour party and leader of the Opposition.

He believes that when the Conservative membership, estimated between 160,000 to 180,000, votes, this will be a key concern in their mind. Rishi Sunak as prime minister gives the Conservatives the best chance of winning a historic fifth consecutive election.

However, he accepts that as the contest for the leadership of the Conservative Party, which brings with it the prime ministership of the country, enters its second and final phase, Sunak is “at the moment probably behind with the membership.” However, he is confident that Sunak will not only make this up but win.

In this interview several concerns that surround Sunak’s potential prime ministership are discussed with Andrew Mitchell.

First, will the Troy shires accept an Indian origin prime minister? Will Rishi Sunak’s race and ethnicity be a problem in their eyes? Second, to what extent has Sunak been morally damaged by his wife’s non-dom tax status, which means that the Chancellor’s wife, who is worth over £700 million, paid no tax in the UK on her wealth?

Third, Mitchell is questioned about whether the fact Sunak had a US Green Card, which he retained during the early months of his Chancellorship, has affected his standing in Conservative eyes? Fourth, Mitchell is asked how the Conservatives, a traditionally low tax party, for whom this is almost a sacred belief, will respond to the fact Sunak, as Chancellor, raised taxes substantially? Will they hold this against him?

Finally, Mitchell is questioned about two other concerns surrounding Sunak’s candidature. First, the view, held by some, that his initial campaign video is a bit too slick and smooth for Conservatives’ taste. Second, a report in The Times newspaper that Boris Johnson is behind an ‘anyone but Rishi’ campaign.

In the interview, Mitchell is also asked about the second contender for the Conservative Party leadership, Liz Truss. What are her key strengths? How will her commitment to reduce taxes stand up against Sunak’s commitment to be Thatcherite and a radical reformer?

UK: Boris Johnson Polling Is Now So Bad That Conservative MPs Should Ditch Him

Support for the Conservatives has been nosediving in the polls following the scandal over gatherings held in Downing Street during pandemic lockdowns.

Things just keep getting worse for Boris Johnson. On the same day that one of his MPs defected to the Labour party, former Brexit minister David Davis stood up in parliament to call for Johnson’s resignation.

The voices calling for the prime minister’s departure are mounting. If 54 letters of no-confidence in him are sent to the backbench 1922 Committee, a leadership contest will be triggered. Many members of Johnson’s party will therefore be calculating whether such a move against him is the right course of action. Central to this thinking will be whether continuing with Johnson as leader would cost them their seat in the next election.

Support for the Conservatives has been nosediving in the polls following the scandal over gatherings held in Downing Street during pandemic lockdowns. We can learn something about how concerned Conservative MPs should be by looking at polling over the last ten years or so – specifically the voting intentions for Labour and the Conservatives since the general election of 2010.

Voting Intentions for Labour and the Conservatives, 2010-22

Charting support across recent elections. Chart: P Whiteley

Not surprisingly general elections have a big impact on support for the two major parties. The Conservatives were boosted by Labour’s defeat in 2010, although they did not get an overall majority in that election.

Again in 2015, support for the party increased during the run-up to the election, but on this occasion, David Cameron did win an overall majority – largely by decimating the voter base of the Conservatives’ coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats. Boris Johnson did very much better than his predecessors when he faced his own election in December 2019. He moved well ahead of Labour in the polls to win an 80-seat majority in the House of Commons.

However, the more striking feature in the chart is the effect of the European parliamentary elections of May 2019, near the end of Theresa May’s premiership. It produced a massive loss of support for both of the two main parties. Their popularity ratings fell dramatically from the start of that year and the outcome was grim for both.

Labour came third and lost ten seats and the Conservatives came fifth and lost 15 seats. Of course, the last European parliamentary elections were not as important as general elections and the turnout was low. That said, support for the two major parties collapsed on that occasion.

The outcome of the European elections was a direct product of the turmoil and polarisation caused by Brexit, both in parliament and in the country. This crisis was triggered in turn by the loss of the Conservative majority in the 2017 general election. That election was the clear exception to the pattern of Conservative leaders improving their performance in relation to seats won in the House of Commons since 2010. The conclusion from the 2019 European election results is that major political crises have large effects on polling support and voting.

This is relevant to the present situation since the plunging support for the Conservatives in recent polls is comparable to that which occurred in the European parliamentary elections. In June 2019, the month after those elections, voting intentions for Theresa May’s party hit 22%. In the most recent YouGov poll completed on January 13 2022, the Conservatives received 29%. Since the turn of the year the party’s support has fallen like a stone.

However, there is an important difference between support for the two major parties in the run-up to the European parliamentary elections and at the present time. In 2019 Labour’s voting intentions fell as sharply as the Conservatives, whereas now it is rising rather rapidly. The recent YouGov poll put the party on 40% in vote intentions.

The government may have made “partygate” even worse in its attempts at damage limitation. Downing Street has embarked on what has been referred to as the “red meat” strategy.

This involves announcing right-wing populist policies such as attacks on the BBC, restrictions on the right to protest and hints that the Royal Navy will be used to deal with illegal immigration across the channel. In each case, the aim is to appease angry backbench MPs and distract the voting public. The calculation is that this may be enough to keep Johnson in Downing Street until the media frenzy moves on.

The problem with this strategy is that it is trashing the Tory brand among the large numbers of voters who are not attracted by right-wing populism. This is likely to reinforce the view among this group that Johnson is not fit to govern. They will be very difficult to woo back into supporting the party if he stays in after the media storm has subsided. A sharp move to the right, possibly followed by an equally sharp move to the centre (where most voters are located) once the storm subsides is likely to weaken the government’s credibility even more.

If Johnson is not replaced by a new leader, backbench Conservative MPs would be well advised to start brushing up their CVs in preparation for life after Westminster.

Paul Whiteley, professor, Department of Government, University of Essex.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.