New Delhi: Months after the United Nations estimated that India’s population surpassed China’s, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs informed parliament on Tuesday, July 25, that the country’s population is still behind its neighbour.
In a written reply in the Lok Sabha on Tuesday, the minister of state for home affairs Nityanand Rai rejected the UN’s estimates by providing data from a Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections published by the National Commission on Population, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare.
“As per United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division online publication, World Population Prospectus 2022, the total projected population of China as on 1st July, 2023 is 142,56,71,000,” said Rai.
“The projected population of India as on 1st July, 2023, as per Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections published by National Commission on Population, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, is 139,23,29,000.”
In April, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) said: “The latest estimates and projections of global population from the United Nations, indicate that China will soon cede its long-held status as the world’s most populous country. “
“In April 2023, India’s population is expected to reach 1,425,775,850 people, matching and then surpassing the population of mainland China.”
The report did not however state the exact date on which India would have surpassed China’s population, saying only that it would happen sometime in mid-2023.
The report also stated that while India’s population is virtually certain to continue to grow for several decades, China’s population reached its peak size recently and experienced a decline during 2022.
It added that projections indicate that the size of the Chinese population will continue to fall and could drop below 1 billion before the end of the century.
It also noted that India’s growth was harder to estimate because a population census has not be conducted since 2011. The 2021 census was delayed because of the COVID-19 pandemic and will likely be conducted in 2024.
However, in his reply to parliament, Rai did not provide a specific answer as to when the next census could be conducted.
“The intent of the Government for conducting Census 2021 was notified in Gazette of India on 28th March, 2019. Due to outbreak of COVID19 pandemic, the Census 2021 and the related field activities have been postponed (sic),” he said.
While India’s young population, which continues to grow, offers an opportunity for India to reap the so-called demographic dividend, concerns have also been raised about the shortcomings of the country’s education and healthcare infrastructure. But experts have also pointed out that concerns about a “population explosion” are unwarranted because several states in the country have already achieved ‘replacement level’ total fertility rate – whereby the population remains stable.