If you see the three states, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, despite the commonality that all the three states are contiguous to each other (MP is bounded with Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh was a part of MP), there are different electoral dynamics in all the three states. In MP, primarily if you see, there is certainly a farmers’ backlash against BJP on account of fluctuation of the market that was further aggravated by the policy of demonetisation, which really dented the farmers’ position. You’ll see that the OBC, who constitute the bulk of the population of MP, more than 40%, are identifying themselves more as farmers than as OBC, and that’s a crisis for the BJP. Therefore, this shift in MP is primarily about the agrarian crisis.
Whereas in Rajasthan more follows the trend of changing the ruling party every five years. Rural life there is not entirely around agriculture. The dominant rural faultlines are along caste and religion. So there you see, the anger is around the current chief minister, the non-delivery of many promises and certainly general issues like price rise. But [the] agrarian crisis is not something that is central to Rajasthan. So the logic of change in Rajasthan is different to that in Madhya Pradesh.
But if you see Chhattisgarh, [it] is very interesting as a state because [it has] three distinct sub regions. North Chhattisgarh, which is primarily Sarguja region, is tribal dominated. Similarly, south Chhattisgarh, which is Bastar-dominated is also tribal. The central Chhatisgarh plain, Bilaspur and Raipur, has a seizable section of Dalit population. Now in Chhattisgarh, you see the change that is coming from BJP to Congress, is because of the disillusionment of tribals with the rice politics. You treat the political agency of tribals as if they are satiated with just getting enough ration, monthly ration. But the new generation is emerging more aspirational, and that is why you see in tribal dominated Bastar region and Sarguja region, Congress is dominating.
So we should keep in mind that while change is a common logic, rural and agrarian distress is the buzzword, the logic of identity politics around caste and religion and occupation as farmer is working differently in different states. It all will have different dynamics for 2019.