Patna: Three days ahead of polling for the third and final phase of the Bihar assembly elections, a woman from a remote settlement in the Kosi region was heard saying on camera, “I will vote for Lalu.”
The TV reporter asked, “Lalu to jail mein hain; aap unhein vote kaise dengin (Lalu is in jail; how will you vote for him)?”
The woman elaborated, “Jail mein hain to kya; unka beta to hai na (So what if Lalu is in jail. His son [Tejaswi] is in the fray.”
There are several similar interviews been broadcast of the people – men and women particularly belonging to the poor agriculturist class doing manual work – in the rural hinterlands.
Lalu Prasad Yadav and his wife, Rabri Devi, who alternatively governed Bihar as chief ministers for 15 years, were missing from the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s campaign banners and posters. It is likely that Tejaswhi Yadav, as the chief ministerial face of the RJD-Congress-Left Mahagathbandhan, removed his father from the billboards for strategic reasons. Lalu was a symbol of empowerment of the marginalised sections at the expense of ‘upper’-caste hegemony. Tejashwi, in a bid to assuage ruffled feelings among rural elites (who lost power to Lalu’s aggressive pro-backward class politics in 1990s and were granted ‘relief’ with the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party in Nitish Kumar’s company), might have might have thought it wiser to do without his father’s picture.
By using only his own face, Tejashwi might have tried to drive home the message that he – unlike his father – was for all sections of society, and his motto was to ensure jobs and livelihood to the young people suffering under Janata Dal (United)-BJP rule.
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Why did most reporters who travelled in Bihar’s remote hinterlands hear Lalu’s name, despite the former chief minister having been in jail for three years and being missing from the billboards? Tejashwi was physically present, fanning out to campaign among them. Why, then, did the voters give precedence to Lalu over Tejashwi?
A closer look at Bihar’s social set-up reveals that Lalu’s charm is, to a great extent, still intact among marginalised sections. These groups suffered heavily during the pre-Lalu era and felt ‘liberated’ by Lalu’s aggressiveness against their ‘oppressors’ at the ground level.
Though Lalu lost power to the JDU-BJP in 2005, he succeeded in retaining his political resources to a great extent. A mechanical Nitish, of course, dented Lalu’s monolithic hold over the backward classes by giving special preference to non-Yadav backward classes and reaped political dividends too. But Nitish never succeeded in obliterating the emotional appeal that Lalu has had with the Yadavs (the single largest caste in Bihar) and also the marginalised sections that he had given a voice to.
Even when Nitish was at the height of his power, after the JDU-BJP’s resounding victory in 2010, Lalu retained his charm with the Yadavs and several other EBC castes including Pasis, Turhas, Kumhars and Kahars, besides some Dalit caste groups.
Lalu’s unwavering aggression against the RSS-BJP, ever since he rode to power in 1990, also meant he held the support of the minorities, constituting over 16% of Bihar’s population. Nitish, using his socialist upbringing, took several measures to win over the Muslims but he – operating in the BJP’s company – could never convince minorities that he was a greater “saviour for them” than Lalu.
The BJP worked hard to break Lalu’s hold on his caste men. The saffron party, during the L.K. Advani-A.B. Vajpayee era, tried to project the leadership of Nandkishore Yadav to weaken Lalu’s hold on the Yadavs. The Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo too has tried its best, bringing Bhupendra Yadav and Nityanand Rai (Yadav by caste) to the fore. Even Lalu’s party has had its share of Yadav leaders rebelling against him: the Kosi region strongman, Pappu Yadav, worked hard to replace Lalu. But nothing has worked against the redoubtable RJD supremo.
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Thus, Yadavs, Muslims and some marginalised sections which constitute over 31% of Bihar voters are Lalu’s political resources, making him the leader of the largest mass base in Bihar. The BJP and JDU do not have a hold over this mass base.
Tejashwi has, apparently, emerged as the natural heir for his father’s supporters. Being confident in the support of this base, he evolved a new strategy to connect with young people suffering under the Nitish regime and the rise of Hindutva. His catchwords – kamai, padhai, dawai, sichai (livelihood, education, medicine, irrigation) – are the right words to connect with people battling for their survival. The BJP, on the other hand, is skipping the real issues and perennially talking about Kashmir, Article 370, the Ram Mandir and other emotive issues.
Only on November 10 will India know if Tejashwi is to Nitish in office, but the young leader has surely unnerved his opponents. That the NDA’s top brass, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, chief minister Nitish Kumar, BJP president J.P. Nadda, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath and Union ministers Rajnath Singh and Ravishankar Prasad, stepped up their tirade against Tejashwi was in itself an acceptance of the fact that the 31-year-old leader has them worried.
Tejashwi, from this election, has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Ironically, his emergence began after Nitish disowned Tejashwi and his party in July 2017, and returned to the BJP. This crisis gave him the opportunity to question Nitish’s action, and also learn the ropes of state politics.
Nalin Verma is a senior journalist and the co-author of Gopalganj to Raisina—My Political Journey, an autobiography of Lalu Prasad Yadav. He has also authored The Greatest Folk Tales of Bihar.