Maharashtra Elections: Tracking the Changing Fates of Congress and BJP

Mumbai: 2014 was a definitive moment in Indian politics, not just at the Centre but also in Maharashtra. Until then, Maharashtra was essentially a Congress-led state, with a non-Congress opposition never winning a majority on its own. The only time the Bhartiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena combine came to power, in 1995, was because of substantial support from independent and rebel MLAs.

The BJP, until the last assembly election, had only played second fiddle to the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. Winning just half as many seats as the Sena, the party mostly relied on the Gujarati and other non-Maharastrian, migrant votes in the state. It was considered an insignificant opposition in the assembly.

The 2014 assembly election, however, changed the political equation and the Congress is on the verge of losing what is perhaps its last stronghold. Of the 21 chief ministers that the state has had (three when it was Bombay state, before Maharashtra was formed in 1960), only two Sena leaders – Manohar Joshi and Narayan Rane – took the top job, that too within a period of five years. The state, before and after, has usually chosen the Congress-NCP combine.

What changed in 2014?

The 2014 state assembly polls, scheduled soon after the general elections, was directly impacted by the “Modi wave”. The change in power at the Centre determined the verdict.

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A closer look at the vote share and the number of seats won indicates that the Congress performed its worst in the elections to the 288-member assembly – the second largest after Uttar Pradesh’s 403. The grand old party won merely 42 seats, down from 82 in 2009. The NCP too lost its ground in some crucial seats in western Maharashtra and Mumbai. Its tally dropped to 41 seats from 62 in 2009. The BJP, which had contested on its own, sprung a surprise by winning 122 seats, up from a meagre 46 before.

Marathas shift gears

The Congress-NCP combine was largely supported and run by the Maratha-Kunbi community. Across regions, most party leaders are from these peasant communities and played a crucial role in determining the political strategy while also leading the state for several decades. It is estimated that Marathas constitute over 35% of the state population and represent 70% of the political leadership.

However, a shift in their political allegiance could be traced in the 90s, when the BJP was able to consolidate the Maratha votes, particularly in the Vidarbha region. Farmers’ crisis, aided by the Hindutva agenda, had largely influenced the voters in the region. The shift became clear in 2014, when the party managed to win 44 of the 62 assembly seats in Vidarbha, its best-ever performance.

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In 2016, following the rape and murder of a teenage Kunbi girl – allegedly by three Dalit men, Marathas took to the streets. The initial demand for strict punishment to the accused soon took a political turn and instead of the rapists, the Dalit community became a target. Marathas sought dilution of the Prevention of Atrocities Act, which provides a safeguard to Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. A demand for reservation in education and jobs for Marathas also rose.

The BJP cashed in on this opportunity, agreeing to their demands. In November 2018, the state legislature passed a Bill proposing 16% reservation for the Marathas. This decision, as expected, was challenged in the high court, which upheld it. The order stands challenged before the apex court now.

This decision earnt the BJP massive support from the community. Several Maratha leaders defected from the Congress-NCP combine to the BJP. In June 2016, as Maratha protests were on, the BJP nominated Sambhaji Raje, a descendant of Chhatrapati Shivaji, to the Rajya Sabha. A few months ago, the NCP MP from Satara and a descendant of Chhatrapati Shivaji, Udayan Raje Bhosale, joined the BJP. The party also poached Bhosale’s cousin, Shivendra Raje Bhosale – another strong leader – from the NCP. Udayan Raje is contesting the Lok Sabha bypolls, and Shivendra Raje is contesting the assembly polls.

The ability to attract Maratha votes is considered to be chief minister Devendra Fadnavis’ biggest achievement. This changed the BJP’s fortunes in the state, as it was previously considered a ‘shetji-bhatji’ i.e. a Brahmin-Baniya-ruled party. In 2019, the party has provided tickets to more than 50 Maratha leaders.

Fadnavis is only the second Brahmin (the community comprises less than 3% of the state’s population) chief minister of Maharashtra. Before him, Manohar Joshi of the Sena was elected but could not complete his term.

The third front

In every Maharashtra election, attempts have been made to float a third front. During elections, smaller parties and leaders with radically different politics have formed alliances, only to dissolve the arrangement later.

In 2009, 16 political parties – including the Republican Party of India (Athawale) group which was a part of the then ruling Congress-NCP government led by Ashok Chavan – had floated a third front. Left parties, the JDS, Samajwadi Party and smaller people’s group came together as an alternative to the ruling Congress-NCP and the opposition BJP-Sena. This alliance did not last more than a few months and after the election, each party went its own way. Despite contesting all the seats, it managed to win only 18.

A similar alliance was formulated again in 2014, with 18 parties joining hands. But this time, two crucial parties – the Swabhimani Party of Raju Shetti, Surajya Paksha, and RPI (Athawale) – decided to go with the BJP.

By 2019, Shetti parted ways with the BJP and decided to join forces with the Congress, both in the Lok Sabha and assembly elections.

Although Maharashtra has had several smaller organisations and political fronts showing eagerness to collaborate and form an alternative front, they never had a clear agenda or a vision to carry it forward beyond an election.

But in 2018, in response to the state’s decision to clamp down on the Dalit and other Bahujan communities following violence at Bhima Koregaon near Pune, a new political thought took birth. It was soon named as “Vanchit Bahujan Party”, a party of the marginalised majority of the state conceptualised and headed by Prakash Ambedkar, a veteran political leader and grandson of Dr Bhimrao Ambedkar.

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The social movement soon took a political turn and the party decided to contest all 48 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. It will also contest all the seats in the state assembly. While the VBA has maintained that it was formed to give the state an alternative to both the saffron and the Congress party politics, it has been accused of playing a spoiler. Some, including the Congress, went on to accuse the VBA as the BJP’s “B-team”.

The VBA experimented in the Lok Sabha elections by fielding almost all candidates from marginalised communities which seldom got political representation. It managed to fare well in the general elections, with a sizeable vote share of over 9%. It is now in full swing to take on the BJP in the assembly election.

At a time when the Congress is ailing in the state, the VBA has emerged as a true political alternative, with over 200 social and political organisations joining it.

It started off with an alliance with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM), but the alliance was soon broken. In the assembly polls, the party is contesting all the 288 seats. It was the first party to announce the castes of its candidates.

The stage in 2019

The depleted Congress-NCP has also had to deal with many senior leaders switching sides. Some of these leaders will contest on behalf of the BJP and some on behalf of the Sena. Unlike the 2014 state assembly elections, the Congress and the NCP have stitched together a pre-election alliance. Similarly, after several rounds of negotiations, the Sena and BJP have also allied.

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While the BJP has faced the peculiar problem of having surplus candidates, the Congress and the NCP have struggled to find appropriate candidates to pose a challenge to the saffron parties. The Congress also had to increase its number of candidates after talks with smaller parties failed. The party had originally planned to field 125 candidates but has finally come up with a list of 155.

The Congress’s Mumbai leadership has been in shambles for the past five years. Most leaders, including Sanjay Nirupam, have kept away from the election campaigns.

To accommodate leaders who have defected from the Congress or NCP, the BJP and the Sena are now facing problems with their own cadre and second rung of leadership. Because most leaders who defected are senior and have clout in their respective regions, the saffron parties had to field them in the elections. At least nine newly inducted Congress and NCP leaders will contest on a BJP ticket. This has meant that at least 12 sitting MLAs have been denied tickets, leaving them and other leaders unhappy.

The decision to drop big names from the BJP’s list has also caused problems. Veteran leaders like Eknath Khadse, Vinod Tawade, Chandrasekhar Bawankule and Raj Purohit have been denied tickets. Khadse immediately declared that he would contest as an independent candidate. The party, however, placated Khadse by fielding his daughter Rohini from the Muktainagar constituency in north Maharashtra. Khadse has represented this seat since 1991, but after his name emerged in a corruption case in 2016, he had to resign and has been in the wilderness since.