Srinagar: For the past five months, Mehbooba Mufti’s political future remained uncertain. First, the BJP’s sudden decision to bring down her government caught her by surprise. Then a rebellion in her party threatened its very existence. On Tuesday, November 20, senior party leader Muzaffar Hussain Baig said he might join Sajad Lone-led ‘Third Front’, giving a big jolt to the PDP.
But the high-voltage political drama that ended Wednesday night with the dissolution of the J&K assembly might provide Mehbooba with an opportunity to regroup her party and prevent a vertical split in its ranks.
The PDP, however, is not the only party to feel the jolt of governor Satya Pal Malik’s decision. From the Sajad Lone-led Third Front to the BJP to the National Conference and the Congress, Malik’s last minute move, described as “murder of democracy” by those opposed to the BJP, has shaken political scheming of most of the players who were in a race to outsmart each other.
Breather or lost opportunity for Mehbooba?
Political analyst Noor M. Baba argued that dissolution of the assembly was an “advantage” to Mehbooba as her prospects on state’s political turf were “growing bleak” with each passing day.
J&K governor Satyapal Malik. Credit: PTI
“The party would be hoping that any chances of breakup within its ranks have been put to rest. This will also allow an opportunity to her (Mehbooba) to regroup her party and cadre ahead of elections,” he said.
Governor Malik dissolved the assembly hours after Mehbooba staked claim to form government, with backing of the National Conference and the Congress. There was also a separate bid from the two-member People’s Conference, which claimed support of the BJP and 18 legislators from other parties to form the government.
“There was this constant talk of engineering being done to break the PDP…the Center was seen behind all this, giving hope to ‘many people’ that a government minus the PDP, the NC and the Congress was a possibility. This dissolution of the assembly has now put a lid on all such talks,” said Baba.
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The J&K assembly was in suspended animation after the PDP-BJP alliance fell apart on June 19 this year. Except for the BJP and its ally, the PC, all political parties were averse to continuation of the assembly in suspended animation and had made repeated pleas to the governor to dissolve the House.
But the governor’s statements ruling out any such move gave rise to speculations that the BJP at the Center was resorting to “political machinations” to cobble a new coalition, much the the worry of the PDP, which was facing a potential revolt.
Murmurs of horse-trading were on since the fall of the government, with the BJP and the PC being accused of trying to break the PDP.
Keeping the assembly alive would put the BJP at advantage as it could explore options for government formation. Mehbooba knew that the storm that had hit her party wasn’t over yet.
On Tuesday, when Baig talked about a “group of people” within the PDP who were “looking for a change and ready to work with like-minded people towards formation of new government”, it indicated that the troubles for Mehbooba were far from over.
“These worries have faded away now for Mehbooba to a great extent, if not altogether,” said Baba.
But political analyst Ashiq Hussain argued that the PDP would have been better positioned if the idea of a grand alliance had come through. The government would have earned the party another two years to try and regain the lost ground and make a comeback on the state’s political turf, he said.
He added that the party was in perils and the leaders were hard put to face the people, revive contact and undo the negative image it has earned by joining hands with the BJP.
Being in a government would also have helped Mehbooba handle the dissent within the party, he said. “This problem is still there for PDP leadership,” said Hussain.
‘Setback to third front’
The Lone-led Third Front, backed by the BJP, was emerging as a serious contender on J&K’s political turf. If the idea had taken final shape and successfully staked claim to form a government, it would not only have consolidated the PC’s position in state politics but also thrown up the Third Font as a competitor to regional players including Mehbooba and Omar Abdullah.
“There was an effort to put People’s Conference at the center of power in J&K. This could have further weakened the PDP and the NC. But the two parties (NC and PDP) came together to abort that possibility and at the same time put to rest any chances of this (Third Front) growing into a major force,” said political commentator Zaffar Choudhary.
Sajjad Gani Lone. Credit: PTI
The PC was trying to cobble up numbers to come to power “in a very indirect way” and change the political scenario in Kashmir, Choudhary said. “The party could have gained some amount of power if it had got an opportunity form a government.”
“Lone’s rise would have helped the cause of third front,” he said, adding though the front can’t be written off completely but its prospects have “grown weaker as it was beneficiary of ongoing uncertainty” in the state.
Also read: Sajad Lone Stakes Claim to Form Govt in J&K with BJP Support
But Baba argued that Lone has “gained” from the uncertainty that prevailed in the state for past five months. “Politics is the game of opportunities. He (Lone) has been able to bring a group of people around and this group could have an impact if it stays together till next election,” said Baba, adding however much would depend on outcome of elections at the Centre too.
BJP’s loss too
For its part, the BJP’s popularity graph has for some time now been on decline in Jammu owing to non-fulfillment of its political commitments and its mishandling of the Kathua rape and murder case.
This was evident from recently held civic body polls. Though the party managed to secure a win in mainland Jammu, it faced tough competition from other parties in the districts of Pirpanjal and Chenab valley.
“They (BJP) were desperate to regain the power and that is why dissolution of the assembly was getting delayed. The party’s position has considerably weakened in the region and the government formation could have undone this negative impact on their image,” said Choudhary, a Jammu resident.
The challenge for the BJP isn’t at the state level only. It would be tough for the Right-wing party to retain three Lok Sabha seats it had won in 2014 elections.
“Also, being in power, the BJP was making serious inroads in Kashmir. That has taken a hit. With the party having little to offer to its electorate in Jammu, a tactical alliance among non-BJP parties could be a major headache for it during next election,” said Baba.
Impact on NC, Congress
National Conference vice-president Omar Abdullah on Thursday avoided a direct response when asked if he feared some of his leaders might cross the line onto the Third Front. “Ask Imran (Ansari) and others (from the Third Front), they are in a better position to answer this question,” he said.
The fact of the matter is that “political machination engineered by Delhi” had given sleepless nights to leaders of every political party including the NC and the Congress, said Hussain. “With the talk of government formation over now, chances of horse trading have been put to rest. If it is a major relief for the PDP, it has also brought some relief to the leadership of both the NC and the Congress.”
Also read: PDP Announces It Will Be Forming an Alliance With Congress, NC in J&K
Choudhary added, “The latest development has left the BJP demoralised. The Congress, which was seen as a dying force in Jammu, will meanwhile come into the spotlight. BJP’s loss in Jammu will be gain for other three parties (Congress, NC and PDP),” he said.
On the ground, though, there is a cold response to the “drama”. Those who talk about it see Delhi “once again revealing its real face to suit its political interests”.
“The so-called democratic process was once again subverted to suit Delhi’s narrative. It is a clear message that the Centre doesn’t trust you and the only politics that can thrive in the region is the one that has approval from power corridors of Delhi,” said Imtiyaz Ahmad, a student at Srinagar’s Amar Singh College.