New Delhi: In what could lead to a landslide victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar, the alliance has so far won at least 13 out of 40 seats and it is leading in another 29 seats. Kishanganj is the only seat where the Congress led mahagathbandhan candidate is leading. Among the seats won by the NDA are high-profile ones such as Begusarai, Darbangha, Ujiyarpur, Jamui and Sasaram.
According to local media reports, in Begusarai, Giriraj Singh of the BJP defeated Kanhaiya Kumar of the CPI by more than 3 lakhs votes, while Tanveer Hassan of the RJD finished distant third. In Sasaram reserved seat, former Lok Sabha speaker Meira Kumar lost to Chhedi Paswan of BJP.
In Darbhanga Gopal Ji Thakur of BJP defeated veteran RJD leader Abdul Bari Siddiqui. Similarly, in Ujiyarpur RLSP supremo and former Union minister Upendra Kushwaha lost to Nityanand Rai of BJP. In Jamui LJP supremo’s son and siting MP Chirag Paswan retained his seat comfortably. Lalu Yadav’s daughter Misa Bharti is trailing from Patliputra seat and in Patna Saheb, Union minister Ravi Shankar Prasad is leading, leaving Shatrughan Sinha behind.
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The past five years have seen equations in Bihar change several times, with parties forging and breaking alliances.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Bihar witnessed a triangular fight, resulting in the BJP becoming the single largest party by winning 22 out of 40 seats. The saffron party’s ally Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) secured six seats and then National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partner Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLS) got three. Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) could win only four seats and Congress and Nitish Kumar-led JDU won two seats each.
However, much has changed since then. In the 2014 general elections, the JDU was not a part of the NDA, but today it is. It is contesting as many seats (17) as the BJ. Similarly, the RLSP was not part of the RJD-led mahagathbandhan in 2014, but today it is and contested five seats.
There are other parties as well, such as former Bihar chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi-led Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and a new party called Vikassheel Insan Party (VIP), led by Mukesh Sahani, better known as ‘Son of Mallah’. Both the parties are contesting three seats each as part of the mahagathbandhan. Sahni has previously campaigned for the BJP. Then there are left parties, contesting several seats across the state. Currently, there is no MP from Bihar belonging to communist parties.
During the election campaign opposition parties tried to make it an election about forward caste and backward caste, and how Nitish Kumar betrayed the popular mandate given to the then mahagathbandhan during assembly elections (2015). In those elections, the JDU was an ally of the RJD, but broke ranks to join the NDA. Meanwhile, Nitish Kumar has tried to present himself once again as the vikas purush by selling his development agenda.
It may be recalled that in the 2015 state assembly elections, the JDU, RJD and Congress fought together. This led to the marginalisation of the BJP. However, in July 2017, the JDU joined hands with the BJP.
As far as the BJP is concerned, during the campaign, it relied on hyper-nationalism to consolidate Hindus of the state. It hopes that this will help it override the unfavourable caste arithmetic. According to several ground reports, it seems to be working in the BJP’s favour. Notably, this time, the BJP is contesting five less seats than it won the last time.
Both the alliances – NDA as well as mahagathbandhan – claim to be confident of winning seats in large numbers. However, by all accounts the NDA seems to have a substantial edge and is likely to retain nearly as many seats as it won last time. Some exit polls are giving more than 35 seats to the NDA.
Also in the fray is the CPI’s Kanhaiya Kumar, who is contesting from Begusarai. He is in a triangular contest, up against the BJP’s Giriraj Singh and alliance candidate Tanveer Hussain. The former JNU leader has played up his “son of the soil” rhetoric during campaigning.