Chandigarh: On face of it, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to be in full control in Himachal Pradesh, ahead of assembly polls in November this year.
A rally by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 31 – which also marked Modi’s eight years in PM’s office – pushed the party into poll mode.
Even though the the BJP lost all seats that had by-elections in October last year, the party has retained confidence in chief minister Jai Ram Thakur. Modi praised him as ‘diligent’ and ‘popular’ during the rally, in a clear signal that he will lead the party in the elections.
BJP national president J.P. Nadda had already declared hinted that this would be the case last month. Nadda played a vital role in Thakur’s appointment in 2017, when Prem Kumar Dhumal – the presumptive CM candidate – lost.
Thakur also exhuded confidence, telling Modi during the rally that the BJP would script history by becoming the first party in the last 37 years get re-elected.
No party in Himachal Pradesh has managed to get re-elected since 1985 and Himachalis are known for booting out the party in power every five years.
Why is the BJP confident despite issues of misgovernance?
The Thakur government did well to inoculate its entire adult population against COVID-19. During his rally, Modi praised Thakur, saying that Himachal showed the way to other states last year by leading the country in administering first and second doses of the vaccine.
People attend Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Garib Kalyan Sammelan’ in Shimla, May 31, 2022. Photo: PIB via PTI
But the government has issues with governance. For instance, there is a lot of resentment among government employees, who are among the largest pressure groups in Himachal. They are demanding a return to the old pension scheme, besides the demand from a section of contractual employees to regularise their jobs. The Thakur government has not made any commitment on either front so far.
Then, the BJP is believed to have been soft on handling corruption. In 2020, the party’s state president Rajiv Bindal resigned in the face of corruption allegations.
Recently the government faced major humiliation as it had to cancel the exam for recruiting constables after it was leaked, forcing Thakur to hand over the matter to the CBI amid pressure from the opposition.
But the party still believes it can overcome these issues. This is not just because it has faith in its strong organisational strength but also because its rivals are not in a position to take advantage of shortcomings.
The Congress, the BJP’s main rival for decades, is not fully up to the task after the death of six-time CM Virbhadra Singh last year.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is also in a nascent stage. The recent arrest of its election-incharge for Himachal Pradesh, Delhi minister Satyendar Jain, came as a major setback – even as the AAP has accused the BJP of a witch hunt.
Also Read: Satyendar Jain’s Arrest May Force AAP to Recalibrate Strategy for Himachal Pradesh
But many believe, if the Congress gets its act together, it can take the ruling BJP on. The grand old party is also strong organisationally. Besides, the Congress was able to defeat the BJP in the October by-elections. This may have been facilitated by a sympathy wave generated by Virbhadra Singh’s demise but the people are also habituated to of voting for Congress every alternate term.
The Congress appointed Virbhadra Singh’s widow Pratibha Singh as the state Congress president, hoping to capitalise on the former CM’s legacy. But all factions within the party must work together and support Pratibha if the BJP is to be defeated.
AAP has the tough task of having to discredit both traditional parties and convince voters of its promise to deliver a clean government. While it managed to do this in Punjab, the key difference is that AAP lacks local leadership in Himachal. In Punjab, Bhagwant Mann – now the Punjab chief minister – was already popular among the masses.
Factionalism another issue with BJP
Although not visible on the surface, infighting among different factions is a problem for the BJP. The party’s defeat in the by-election was the outcome of factionalism.
Professor Ramesh Chauhan of the Shimla University’s political science department told The Wire that even if the BJP denies it, the party is sharply divided into Nadda and Dhumal camps.
Shanta Kumar, the first BJP chief minister in Himachal, also has his own group but that faction is not very influential, given Kumar has retired from active politics, he added.
Chauhan said recently, Jai Ram Thakur and his entire cabinet attended the 50th marriage anniversary celebration of former chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal. He said this was a political necessity to keep Dhumal in good humour, since the leader is still unhappy that he was overlooked for the CM chair in 2017 – even though he was the party’s candidate before the elctions.
Moreover, a section of Dhumal supporters are seeking a change in leadership by promoting Dhumal’s son Anurag Thakur, currently a Union minister in Modi’s cabinet.
The factionalism, he said, is not new and has existed since the days of Shanta Kumar.
“What matters is the ability of the leadership to handle it well before elections, so that it does not hamper the party’s poll prospects. In that sense, there is a real challenge for both Nadda and Thakur to win the state for the BJP,” he added.
Apart from the Dhumal factor, the party faces anti-incumbency and may need to change several sitting MLAs or those fought last time in order to stay in competition. Nadda has already hinted at a change of 10-15% candidates for the coming election.
How the party pacifies leaders who will be denied tickets will also play a crucial role in the election outcome for the BJP.
Does Dhumal’s salvo last month hint something?
The party has been evading questions on whether former CM Dhumal, now 78, will be fielded in the elections. But Dhumal is still upset about being passed over 5 years ago and during media interaction last month, demanded investigation into his election then.
His response came in the context of the BJP looking to investigate the defeat of the party’s CM candidate in Uttarakhand, Pushkar Dhami. Dhami was retained as CM despite his election defeat.
“If the reasons for Dhami’s defeat in Uttarakhand can be investigated, then the reason for my defeat in Himachal can also be investigated,” Dhumal said.
