Will Congress Break Ties With RJD in Bihar?

Patna: Just before the crucial by-elections for two assembly seats in Bihar, a senior Congress leader has created a political storm in the state by announcing the ‘exit’ of the grand old party from the mahagathbandhan (grand alliance).

Bhakta Charan Das, member of the Congress Working Committee and party in-charge of Bihar, said, “The Congress is not part of the grand alliance. When the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) cannot leave the traditional Congress seat of Kusheshwar Asthan for the party, then where is the grand alliance?”

He said in an interview with a private news channel, “If the RJD cannot give us respect, then how will we give them respect?”

So far, the Congress high command has not reacted to these comments.

However, the RJD seemed to dismiss Bhakta Charan Das’s comments and asserted that the Congress is still part of the alliance.

RJD spokesperson Mrityunjay Tiwari said that Das has no idea about the ground reality in Bihar and he is harming the Congress by making such irresponsible remarks.

RJD leaders, speaking to The Wire, categorically rejected the statement that the grand alliance has fallen apart and that the Congress is no longer a part of it.

Senior RJD leader Shivanand Tiwari told The Wire, “The decision to leave the grand alliance will be taken by the Congress high command. The leaders who are now saying that they are not part of the alliance, are speaking in the heat of the by-elections. Tell me, who among these leaders (who are saying that the Congress is not part of the grand alliance) have the capacity to decide how the Congress will fight in the 2024 general elections? Only Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will decide that.”

Why bypolls are important

Though the RJD is the largest political party in the grand alliance, it still depends on the Congress for now, as the party has a sizable Muslim vote bank. This is crucial in giving a tough fight to the NDA.

In such a situation, despite the sharp reaction of Congress leaders, the RJD is playing safe on the question of unity so that the situation does not escalate.

Political commentators say that the RJD does not want any rift in the alliance because the two seats where by-elections will be held on October 30 can play a crucial role in defining the political equation in Bihar.

The NDA had won 125 seats in last year’s assembly elections, just three more than the magic figure. Later three MLAs – one from the BSP, one independent and one from the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) joined the NDA, increasing its tally to 128. With the demise of two JD(U) MLAs – Mewa Lal Chaudhary (Tarapur) and Shashi Bhushan Hazari (Kusheshwar Asthan) – the NDA now has 126 seats. The Mahagathbandhan has 110.

If the RJD wins both the seats, it will lead to discomfort among NDA partners. And on the other hand, the RJD will also assert its dominance in the grand alliance.

If the Congress wins, its gets more bargaining power to return to the grand alliance after the elections. This is why the RJD is not going on the offensive against the Congress. 

Patna based journalist Dipak Mishra says, “If the Congress walks out of the grand alliance, that decision will be taken by the high command. But, there is no response so far from Delhi. So these statements are just to increase its bargaining power.”

Distance between RJD and Congress

It should be noted that for a while, the Congress has been hesitant about the alliance with the RJD in Bihar. In 2018, senior Congress leader Ashok Gehlot had said in a meeting with party workers in Patna that the alliance with the RJD is a “compulsion” and the need of the hour.

He had said that the Congress is no longer in a position to form the government on its own, therefore it has to ally with the RJD.

Last year, there was a lot of tussle between the Congress and the RJD over seat-sharing in the Bihar assembly elections. Whie the Congress sought 70 seats, the RJD was ready to give only 58. In the end, the RJD agreed to the Congress’s demand.

But, the grand old party’s performance was dismal and it could win only 17 seats. The RJD termed this poor performance as the reason for the defeat of the mahagathbandhan.

Shivanand Tiwari slammed the Congress, saying though it had demanded 70 assembly seats, it did not even hold 70 election rallies. He also criticised Rahul Gandhi, saying he was in Bihar only for three days during the campaign. When elections were on, he was “having a picnic” in Shimla.

Now, Kanhaiya Kumar joining the Congress and the RJD’s unilateral decision to fight from the Kusheshwar Asthan seat, which was traditionally the Congress’s seat, has resulted in further disagreements.

Though Kanhaiya Kumar has been in Bihar politics for almost two years, he has never shared a stage with Tejashwi Yadav. It is believed that Tejashwi Yadav sees Kanhaiya Kumar as a contender and was unhappy with the Congress’s decision to rope him in.

Shivanand Tiwari described Kumar as a Navjot Singh Sidhu-type figure, saying he will “ruin” the Congress party. He had also said that there Kanhaiya joining the Congress will not boost its prospects.

Is the Congress looking beyond the RJD?

State Congress leaders have from the beginning felt that the party should contest elections on its own, but had to be content with the high command’s decision to ally with the RJD. After Kanhaiya Kumar joined the party recently, speculation suggests that the Congress wants to find political options beyond the RJD in Bihar.

On Friday, when Kanhaiya Kumar reached the Congress office in Patna along with Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mewani, he was given a warm welcome. Addressing the workers in the Congress office, he indirectly attacked the RJD leaders.

Without taking the name of RJD leader and MP Manoj Jha, Kanhaiya said, “Being educated, he is speaking a language (for Bhakta Charan Das) of lathait. He doesn’t know who Bhakta Charan Das is. The person who is speaking against him should go to his master and ask about Bhakta Charan Das.”

As reported above, Bhakta Charan Das had criticised the RJD for its unilateral decision to contest the two assembly seats. He had said, “I feel, the RJD has had an understanding with those forces against whom we have been fighting.”

Jha had in response said that the Congress-in charge of Bihar does not have any knowledge of the social, economic and political history of the state or the RJD’s sacrifices. Becoming the party’s in-charge does not mean destroying the party, he had said.

Targeting Tejashwi Yadav, Kanhaiya Kumar said, “Whoever inherited politics from their father, they keep it close to their chest. No one is ready to share.”

Kanhaiya Kumar will also campaign for Tarapur and Kusheshwar Asthan seats.

Congress state president Madan Mohan Jha told The Wire, “Currently, we are not part of the grand alliance. These by-elections could have made the alliance stronger, but the RJD has made a mistake.”

“There should be trust in politics, but the RJD has broken it,” he said.

Kanhaiya Kumar’s latest attack and Bhakta Charan Das’s blunt statement indicates that the Congress is at least considering option other than the RJD in Bihar.

But, these options may be limited: it can either go solo or make an anti-BJP and anti-RJD alliance. Neither option is realistic, considering that the Congress has less than 10% vote share and there is no party in the state with a strong vote bank apart from the RJD, the JDU and the BJP.

Political analyst Pranab Chauwdhary told The Wire, “If the Congress wants to go solo, it has to have a strong vote bank. But, the party is weak.”

“If the Congress thinks Kanhaiya alone can revive the party in Bihar, then he has to first prove that he can win seats. He will have to work vigorously. Inducting leaders into the party is not going to help in any way,” he says.