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Given that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already addressed 16 election rallies and inaugurated development projects worth thousands of crores in the run-up to the Gujarat Assembly poll, it is more than evident that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) learned its lesson in 2017. Although it won the last election to continue over 20 years of uninterrupted rule, it was hit hard by multiple agitations, including the Patidar movement and a state-wide agrarian crisis, and hit an all-time low of 99 seats in the 182-member Assembly.
Now, the BJP is leaving no stone unturned. It changed the entire cabinet and replaced Vijay Rupani with the trusted but inexperienced Bhupendra Patel as chief minister a year ago. From 2017 to 2022, it also poached influential Opposition leaders, including some Adivasi and Patidar legislators who had whipped up sentiment against the BJP. The party also dropped several veteran legislators and nominated fresh faces for elections. The PM, whose presence was restricted in the 2017 campaign ― the last-minute callisthenics of taking off on a seaplane from the Sabarmati waterfront and a flashy roadshow notwithstanding ― is the primary anchor for his party in 2022.
His rallies and speeches have tactically targeted the tribal belt and Saurashtra, where the BJP took a massive hit in 2017. The Congress and its ally the Bharatiya Tribal Party won 18 of the 27 seats in the tribal belt stretching from the northern fringes of the state to the southern peripheries bordering Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Similarly, the BJP had taken a massive hit in the 54 constituencies in its traditional strongholds of Saurashtra and Kutch.
The PM has a special interest not only because Gujarat is his home state and a prestige issue for his party, but also because of Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the new entrant in the state. AAP has pried open the traditionally bipolar political equations of the state, and has emerged as the primary challenger to not only the Congress but also the BJP.
Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal greets Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) party’s chief ministerial candidate Isudan Gadhvi during a public meeting ahead of Gujarat Assembly elections, in Ahmedabad, November 4, 2022. Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann is also seen. Photo: PTI
Although a new player, AAP is no pushover. It has pooled all its resources in the state and has been running a spirited campaign in the face of a multi-pronged attack by the ruling party, including the targeting of its top Delhi-based leaders Satyendra Jain, Manish Sisodia and Rajendra Pal Gautam. Its appeal among the urban youth is up.
Modi’s revdi culture jibe at the AAP two months ago was evidence of the threat that Kejriwal’s party posed to the BJP. Baiting Rahul Gandhi for the Congress declining support to the first-ever Adivasi President Droupadi Murmu or the anti-Narmada dam activist Medha Patkar’s support to the Bharat Jodo Yatra, or deriding the Congress as Muslim-appeasers, have been central in BJP leaders’ speeches. However, brushing aside AAP has been difficult, forcing the BJP to rely on a high-pitched fake news campaign against Kejriwal and others. On Gujarat’s roads, one hears BJP workers talking about how Kejriwal has Islamic roots, or is pushing an anti-Hindu agenda, or is corrupt.
AAP has pushed the BJP to pivot its campaign from Hindutva towards development, as is evident from its poll talk. In a recent speech, Modi said that the poll was not about choosing a legislator but deciding the future of Gujarat. While claiming credit for present-day Gujarat, he said that it was time for Gujarat to take “a giant leap” to decide how it would be in the next 25 years. In attempts to take on AAP’s welfare model, his speeches have focussed on the BJP government’s achievements in education and the social sector.
Most surveys have predicted yet another BJP win, but it won’t be easy. Although it has placated the influential Patidar community, which was up in arms in 2017, by allowing 10% Economically Weaker sections (EWS) reservation and appointing a Patel leader as CM, it will still have to deal with the impact of at least 32 recent agitations, all led by different caste and communities, across the state.
A recent pre-poll survey by CSDS-Lokniti showed that AAP may help the BJP bag more seats than in 2017, though its vote share may drop, via an almost equal division of Opposition votes between Congress and AAP. However, many AAP leaders find the analysis too simplistic as they believe that their party will damage BJP’s prospects in 48 urban seats, which the Congress has never won. AAP may not be in a position to win but can take away a significant chunk of BJP’s traditional votes, and the Congress is likely to increase its urban presence.
Going by the CSDS-Lokniti survey, AAP is likely to get over 20% of votes, consolidate its strength and will pose a greater challenge to the BJP in future.
The Congress started off well with a massive Rahul Gandhi rally in which he made crucial promises, but has faded out. Its leaders said that the party has focussed more on door-to-door campaigning over the last year and may be in a much stronger position than it looks. The Congress campaign has focussed on consolidating its base comprising a section of OBCs, Dalits, Muslims and Adivasis.
A combination of economic and social concerns raised by the Opposition parties has forced the BJP to bank on its “Gujarati pride” campaign. It has emphasised that the top two leaders of India are from Gujarat, and that they have helped Gujaratis (and Indians) walk with their heads held high internationally. For the 46% urban middle classes in the state, this appears to be the most significant driving factor.
