There will be a lot of hue and cry about this illegitimate alliance – an alliance of sheer numbers and no merit – but it was Sun Tzu, the Chinese general and philosopher, who said: “opportunities multiply as they are seized”.
Amidst the chaos, the sounding of bugles, the exuding confidence of leaders and the uncertainty of outcome that surrounded the run-up to the most anticipated by-polls in a long time, it was Akhilesh Yadav’s speech in Phulpur, delivered two days before the seat went to polls, which stood out and stayed with the voters.
This speech will be the key to understanding, at least in Uttar Pradesh, the arithmetic, the equation or, as ‘bhaiya ji‘ put it, the “sameekaran (caste equations)” that will form against the current dispensation following this election victory. It will be known as the pilot project of an ideology which a dear friend recently called “tactically anti-BJP”.
Akhilesh, who brought a smile to many a face when he usurped his father’s position and took over the Samajwadi Party, can be heard in his speech saying that he, as the leader of the party, has always tried to position himself as a developmental leader, a leader who tried hard to shed the image that his party was one of only Yadavs and Muslims.
He said that when he built expressways in record time, implemented the laptop scheme or the Samajwadi Pension Yojana, he never thought of himself as ‘backward’. But it was the BJP that always made him feel that he was a person from the backward community. He astutely shifted the blame on to the BJP for isolating Yadavs from the other dominant OBCs – the Kurmis and the Mauryas.
Having said that, he craftily manoeuvred the issue of ‘reservations within reservations of OBCs’. A quota within quota for OBCs is often pegged as the BJP’s election gambit to ensure equal distribution of benefits to the constituent castes instead of the system benefitting the few dominant ones. While this ensures the destabilisation of regional parties seeking to represent dominant OBCs like Yadavs, Kurmis or Kushwahas, this move is likely to sway the extremely backward votes towards the BJP while isolating the dominant OBCs.
Akhilesh, as the leader of the Yadavs – who are perhaps the most dominant OBC community in Uttar Pradesh – questioned this move and evoked suspicion in the minds of the voters. He demanded the release of caste survey data so that rights and benefits can be accessed by castes, based on their legitimate numbers.
In so many words, he asked for the release of socio-economic caste census data from 2011. It is noteworthy that this was the first-caste based census conducted in India since 1931, and was expected to be released in 2015, but it has so far been withheld by the central government. While in making this demand Akhilesh only reiterated the oft-repeated demand of many Mandal leaders in the past, he couldn’t have found a better time to speak on a subject that has emerged as the government’s future agenda – Mandal 2.0.
The lesser-known Samajwadi candidate Nagendra Pratap Singh Patel stood by bhaiya ji’s side and earned accolades as his opponent, Kaushlendra Singh Patel, was called a ‘parachute’ candidate of the BJP.
Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav during a campaign rally ahead of by-polls in Phulpur Lok Sabha constituency. Credit: PTI
Akhilesh further went on to prod the BJP, accusing the party of ill-treating Keshav Prasad Maurya ever since the BJP’s state election victory. He narrated the incident of how Keshav Maurya once took the charge of Uttar Pradesh chief minister when Adityanath was on tour. Summoning a meeting of the principal secretary and the DG, Maurya even got his nameplate fixed on the door of the “pancham tal” in Shastri Bhawan, Lucknow. After Adityanath returned, Maurya was unceremoniously asked to leave the office of the chief minister. Delivered two days before the voting, this narrative was bound to touch a raw nerve amongst Mauryas/Kushwahas.
He further brought up the VVIP guesthouse incident which infamously caused the SP-BSP alliance to split and catapult Mayawati into dominance. He carefully highlighted that he has only addressed her as “bua” or “aunt” and continues to do so. Akhilesh, without being explicit, made it clear he is not his father. This signalled to the future of an alliance which has already found success in the recent by-polls.
In the UP state elections of March 2017, the non-dominant OBCs and the SCs sided with the BJP, which also swept up upper caste votes. Accusing the BJP of playing caste politics, Akhilesh said that when he rode the election wagon on development, no one took the bait, forcing him thereby to speak not just on development but also about a different kind of sameekaran. This sameekaran is, of course, consolidating all Bahujans and OBCs and ensuring that the Muslim vote doesn’t splinter like it did in the last election.
This is not to discount the faux pas on part of the BJP information machinery, which caused a friendly fire when on April 13, 2017, India Today carried an article proclaiming that the Adityanath government has made an announcement saying caste-based reservations in private medical and dental colleges of UP will cease to exist. It attributed the scrapping of caste-based reservations to the current regime.
When The Wire reported that reservation was never a part of the admission process in private sector medical and dental colleges as per the policy made in 2006, the authorities were quick to refute the information. This shows the ease with which the BJP government is willing to downplay the interests of OBCs and marginalised Dalit communities.
Gorakhpur, which has a dominant Rajput population, also has an equally strong SC population. Although not numerically as strong as Rajputs and OBCs, Brahmins are also a significant population. The Muslims, although concentrated in pockets, dominate at least these two seats.
With this equation in place, Gorakhpur saw its first Brahmin candidate fielded in 30 years on a traditionally Rajput-dominated seat. BJP had little choice but to ignore the Nishad community, which found its voice right before the UP state elections when the NISHAD party was formed. The party represents at least 20 communities whose traditional occupations are centred on rivers. Winning only one seat out of the 100 contested, this Lok Sabha win has made Praveen Nishad the unlikely hero of these elections.
This turn of events signals a different kind of polarisation, one which the BJP might find hard to deal with – the polarisation of upper castes led by the Rajputs and Brahmins on one side and all other castes under the banner of a tactical anti-BJPalliance on the other side.
Parakram Kakkar is a political commentator based in Delhi and has previously worked for the Congress-SP alliance for the Uttar Pradesh 2017 state elections.