New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party-led Union government could get the controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2019 passed quite easily with its brute majority in the Lok Sabha. However, it may have to walk a tightrope now that it has tabled the Bill in the Rajya Sabha on Wednesday afternoon.
The Upper House has allocated six hours to debate the Bill, following which a vote will be taken. Given the Union government got support from a number of non-allied parties in the Lok Sabha, it has expressed confidence that the Bill will sail through the Rajya Sabha too.
Let’s take a stock of how political parties are placed in the House.
With five seats vacant, the current strength of the Rajya Sabha is 240, which means the government will need 121 votes to pass the Bill.
The BJP, as the single-largest party, has 83 members, while the Congress has 46. The BJP alone is in a minority, but is expecting support from its allies and some regional parties to get the Bill passed in the Upper House.
Along with its 83 members, the BJP will likely get the support of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam or AIADMK (11), Lok Janshakti Party (1), Republican Party of India – Athawale (1), Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) (3), Janata Dal (United) (6), Asom Gana Parishad (1), Bodoland People’s Front (1), Naga People’s Front (1) and Pattali Makkal Katchi (1).
Together, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance’s strength is 109.
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Now, if the non-allied parties – Biju Janata Dal (7), Shiv Sena (3), YSR Congress (2) and Telugu Desam Party (2) – which voted in favour of the Bill continue their support in the Upper House, the government will easily pass the test with a total of 123 votes.
Moreover, the government can get an additional seven votes as four of the six independent members and three of the four nominated MPs will most likely support the Bill. This would mean that the Bill will have the support of a majority 130 members.
Two members of the ruling coalition could remain absent because of health reasons. That brings the effective strength of the house to 238, which means that the government would need only 120 votes in its favour to clear the Bill.
Opposition strength
As of now, 107 members are expected to vote against the Bill, which include representatives from the Congress (46), Trinamool Congress (13), Bahujan Samaj Party (4), Communist Part of India (1), Communist Party of India (Marxist) (5), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (5), Indian Union Muslim League (1), Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (2), Kerala Congress – Mani (1), Samajwadi Party (9), Telangana Rashtra Samithi (6), Nationalist Congress Party (4), Janata Dal (Secular) (1), Rashtriya Janata Dal (4), Aam Aadmi Party or AAP (3), Sikkim Democratic Front (1) and Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) (1).
Even if two independent MPs and one nominated member vote with the opposition, its combined numbers will only stack up to 110 – 10 less than the halfway mark.
Likely fence-sitters
On paper, the scales are heavily tilted in the government’s favour. The only way the Bill could fail is if some of the non-allied parties, likely fence-sitters, vote against it.
Soon after the Lok Sabha debate, Shiv Sena chief and Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray said it will change its stance in the Rajya Sabha, and may not vote in favour of the Bill until “things are clear”. Shiv Sena had extended conditional support to the Bill in Lok Sabha and urged the government to exclude Afghanistan and instead include Sri Lanka in the list of neighbouring countries in the Bill.
Similarly, YSR Congress, too, had raised certain questions about exclusion of Muslim sects from the list of beneficiaries in the Bill.
Assam-based parties Asom Gana Parishad and Bodoland People’s Front have been beset with infighting in their ranks over their support to the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill in the Lower House. The opposition is hoping they change their position in the Rajya Sabha.
Even the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United), which has six members, has been facing dissent from some of its leaders like Pavan Varma and Prashant Kishor for supporting the Bill. The party until very recently thought that the Bill went against the secular grain of India, only to change its view in the Lok Sabha on Monday.
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However, hours before the Upper House debate, party leader Bashistha Narain Singh said the JD(U) will support the Bill even in the Rajya Sabha and there has been no change in its position.
Similarly, there has been no sign that the Odisha’s Biju Janata Dal, which has 7 MPs, will change its position in the Upper House.
The opposition will need the support of these non-allied parties to stop the passage of the Bill. However, at the moment, that looks highly unlikely.