New Delhi: A survey by ABP News and CVOTER has predicted that the incumbent BJP governments in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are set to lose power to the Congress, in the state elections scheduled for November this year. However, according to News 18, the survey also showed that the ‘Narendra Modi factor’ would reverse the assembly poll trend in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
According to the survey, the Congress is set to win 130 out of 200 seats in Rajasthan, 117 of the 230 seats in Madhya Pradesh and 54 of the 90 seats in Chhattisgarh. The BJP is expected to win 57, 106 and 33 seats in the three states respectively.
About 28,000 respondents were interviewed in the survey. The respondents showed a conspicuously different political preference for the 2019 Lok Sabha election, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi emerged as the clear favourite ahead of Congress president Rahul Gandhi.
Political analysts believe that good electoral performance in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh would boost the Congress’ morale, apart from giving the opposition party more leverage to negotiate a potential ‘grand alliance’ to try and push the NDA out of power.
Rajasthan
Congress is expected to bag 51% of the vote, with BJP at a distant 37%. With such a large vote share, Congress is expected to get 130 seats, well over the majority mark of 100.
Of six by-polls held in the past, the Congress has won four, which shows voters are favourably inclined towards the party. However, the party has to decide a chief ministerial candidate to take on the present BJP Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje. The survey said 41% of respondents favoured her predecessor and former Congress Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, while just 18% preferred Sachin Pilot, the state’s present Congress chief.
However in the Lok Sabha polls, BJP is expected to receive 47% of the vote share, with Congress getting 43%. Additionally, 55% of respondents said they would prefer to see Modi reinstated as prime minister for a second time. Only 22% of the respondents said they would back Rahul Gandhi for the top post.
Madhya Pradesh
A closer race is predicted in Madhya Pradesh. Congress would unsettle the BJP, getting 42% of the vote share as against the latter’s 40%. This would fetch the Congress to 117 seats, the survey said, taking the party just over the simple majority mark in the 230-seat house. The BJP is expected to get 106 seats.
In contrast, in the general elections, BJP would get 46% of votes and the Congress 39%. Modi once again emerges as the clear favourite, with 54% of respondents putting their weight behind him. Rahul Gandhi was backed by 25% of the respondents.
Chhattisgarh
This state too is expected to see a close battle. While the vote shares of Congress (40%) and BJP (39%) are predicted to be neck and neck, the percentage would still be enough for Congress to seize 54 seats, well over the majority mark of 45. BJP is expected to get only 33 seats.
Once again, the BJP is a clear favourite for the general elections, with a predicted vote share of 46%. Congress is expected to get 36% of the vote share. The survey said 56% of respondents wanted to see Modi as the PM again, while 21% was ready give a chance to Rahul Gandhi.