June 2016 Archives

Duterte Sworn in as President of Philippines, Unorthodox Policies Expected to Follow

Known for his autocratic tendencies, Duterte guaranteed a strong crackdown on rampant crime and corruption in his speech.

President Rodrigo Duterte delivers his inaugural speech as the president of the Philippines at the Malacanang Palace in Manila, Philippines, June 30, 2016. Credit: Presidential Palace/Handout via Reuters

Manila: Rodrigo Duterte was sworn in as the Philippines’ 16th president on June 30, capping an unlikely journey for a provincial city mayor whose brash man-of-the-people style and pledges to crush crime swamped establishment rivals in May’s election.

After making his pledge at the presidential palace in Manila, with one hand on the Bible, Duterte delivered a short speech in which he promised a “relentless” and “sustained” fight against corruption, criminality and illegal drugs.

However, he said these ills were only symptoms of a virulent social disease cutting into the moral fibre of society.

“I see the erosion of the people’s trust in our country’s leaders, the erosion of faith in our judicial system, the erosion of confidence in the capacity of our public servants to make the people’s lives better, safer and healthier,” he said.

Outgoing President Benigno Aquino brought the country an average annual growth rate of 6.3% in his six-year term, the fastest of southeast Asia’s five main economies.

Duterte said on June 30 that he would give specifics of his economic policies later, but some already fear that his defiance of convention could pose a danger to the country’s health.

In the election campaign, Duterte railed against the country’s political elite and tapped into voters’ disgust with a succession of governments that failed to tackle poverty and inequality even when the economy was bounding ahead.

His campaign focused almost entirely on the scourges of murder, rape, drug abuse and corruption, and voters were not deterred by his repeated warnings, in profanity-peppered speeches, to have offenders killed.

‘Verging on the illegal’

Duterte conceded in his maiden speech that many critics believe his methods of fighting crime “are unorthodox and verge on the illegal”. However, the 71-year-old former prosecutor said that he knew right from wrong and would be uncompromising in adhering to due process and the rule of law.

Duterte was mayor for 22 years of the far-south city of Davao, where, according to human rights groups, death squads have killed at least 1,400 people since 1998, most of them drug-pushers, addicts, petty criminals and street children.

He denies any involvement in the vigilante killings.

In keeping with his manner, the inauguration ceremony was far less elaborate than those of his predecessors.

Aides said there would be no sumptuous banquet and no champagne corks popping, just a meal of homely dishes for the roughly 600 guests, showcasing the country’s culinary heritage, including coconut pith spring rolls, a white cheese made from unskimmed carabao milk and durian tartlets.

Duterte is not known for his sartorial elegance: he usually sports a short-sleeved casual shirt, never wears socks and told Reuters on the campaign trail that he wouldn’t be seen in a tie.

For his inauguration, Duterte wore a formal ‘barong’ shirt but without the embroidery that would normally be expected for such an occasion. State TV presenters commented that he appeared to be wearing slip-on loafers.

Indeed, there is little about him that is conventionally presidential.

Aides say that instead of being driven around in the president’s limousine, a bullet-proof Mercedes, Duterte wants to travel in a pick-up truck.

It is still not clear if he will keep a promise to spurn the luxury of the palace and commute daily from his hometown in the south of the country, which is two hours from Manila by air.

A 21-gun salute welcomed in the new president at Malacanang Palace, a graceful white mansion that was originally built by Spanish colonialists in the 18th century and became the official residence of the president after World War II.

Incoming President Rodrigo Duterte and outgoing President Benigno Aquino salute the honour guards before Aquino leaves the Malacanang Palace in Manila, Philippines, June 30, 2016. Credit: Reuters/Erik De Castro

Echoes of an authoritarian past

Very few media organisations were invited to the inauguration ceremony, the upshot of a furore Duterte unleashed recently when he suggested that corrupt journalists were legitimate targets for assassination.

Duterte’s incendiary rhetoric and advocacy of extrajudicial killings to stamp out crime and drugs have alarmed many who hear echoes of the country’s authoritarian past.

In the few weeks since his landslide election victory, there has been a jump in the number of suspected drug dealers shot dead by police and anonymous vigilantes across the country, a sign, critics say, that a spiral of violence has already begun.

“Duterte tapped into a raw nerve in Philippines society about crimes being committed and no one being held responsible,” said Chito Gascon, head of the Commission on Human Rights. “Now you have this momentum for action but the cure could be worse than the disease.”

As well as taming crime, voters will be looking to Duterte to fix the country’s infrastructure, create jobs and lift more than a quarter of the 100 million population out of poverty.

Duterte said he wants to spread wealth more evenly.

But he has also said he will continue Aquino’s economic policies, which focused on infrastructure and fiscal efficiency, to push growth up to 7-8%, and analysts say they are encouraged that he plans to delegate this to experienced hands.

(Reuters)

India Test Fires Surface-To-Air Missile From Defence Base Off Odisha Coast

The medium range missile, the product of joint venture between India and Israel, was successfully test launched from a mobile launcher in the Integrated Test Range at Chandipur.

Credit: Reuters

Balasore (Odisha): India today successfully test fired a new surface-to-air missile, developed in a joint venture with Israel, from a defence base off the Odisha coast.

The medium range missile (MR-SAM) was successfully test launched from a mobile launcher in the Integrated Test Range (ITR) at Chandipur at around 8:15 am, a DRDO official said. “The test launch was a grand success and it met all the targets,” he said.

The missile positioned at launch pad-3 of the ITR swung into action after getting a signal from the radars to intercept a moving aerial target supported by an unmanned air vehicle (UAV) ‘Banshee’ over the Bay of Bengal, officials said.

Apart from the missile, the system includes a Multi Functional Surveillance and Threat Alert Radar (MF STAR) for detection, tracking and guidance of the missile, they said.

“The missile, along with MF-STAR, will provide users with the capability to neutralise any aerial threats,” said a Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) scientist.

Indian Defence Research Development Laboratory (DRDL), a laboratory of DRDO based at Hyderabad, has developed this missile in collaboration with Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), he said.

A new production facility to deliver 100 missiles a year has been established for such long-range and medium-range surface-to-air missiles at M/s Bharat Dynamics Limited, India.

The missile test, which was supposed to occur on June 29, was deferred at the last moment.

Earlier, the Indian navy had successfully test launched the long range surface-to-air missile (LR-SAM). The test was undertaken on the western seaboard by INS Kolkata on December 30, 2015, officials said.

Such type of medium range surface-to-air missiles (SR-SAM), with striking ranges from 50 to 70 km, can fill the gap of existing missiles that India has in its armoury at present, they said.

These missiles would be inducted in all three services after the user’s trial is completed.

As a safety measure, Balasore district administration in consultation with the defence officials had temporarily shifted 3,652 civilians living within a 2.5 km radius of the launch pad to nearby shelter centres this morning to ensure a safe launch, said a district revenue official.

Fishermen engaged in sea fishing along the Bay of Bengal in three Odisha coastal districts, Balasore, Bhadrakh and Kendrapada, were asked not to venture into the sea during the test launch time.

Renowned Polling Analyst Predicts Landslide Victory for Hillary Clinton

Nate Silver, a polling data analyst, rose to prominence when he perfectly predicted the results of the 2012 general election, with accurate readings for all 50 states.

Democratic US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at a campaign rally in Cincinnati, Ohio, US June 27, 2016. Credit: Reuters/Aaron Josefczyk

New Delhi: Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has an 80.3% chance of winning the US presidential election, prominent polling analyst Nate Silver has said. Silver gives Republican candidate Donald Trump a 19.7% chance of becoming the next US president.

Silver, editor-in-chief of opinion poll analysis website FiveThirtyEight, rose to prominence when he predicted perfectly the results of the 2012 US presidential election, with accurate readings for all 50 states. According to The Guardian, while many pundits saw a tight race between President Barack Obama and then Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, it was Silver who accurately estimated a 332-206 electoral college result. Not a one-hit wonder, Silver had also successfully predicted the results of the 2008 election, getting 49 of the 50 states right and anticipating the popular vote margin to within one percentage point.

His calculations are based on polling data, with state polls more favoured than national ones. His ‘polls-only’ model uses polling data exclusively and assumes that current results reflect the best forecast for November, albeit with a large dose of uncertainty.

Silver has two other polling models; the ‘polls-plus’, which includes the economic index and probabilities arrived at from the historical accuracy of election polls, and the ‘now-cast’, which predicts what would happen if the election were held now. The ‘polls-plus’ method narrows the odds to 73.5%-26.5% for Clinton, with the ‘now-cast’ method giving Clinton a runaway victory at 85.5%-14.5%.

For this election cycle, Silver posits in his ‘polls-only’ model that Clinton will win 353.8 electoral votes to Trump’s 183.4, and win the popular vote with 49.1%, while Trump will get 41.8%. Third-party Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson will receive only 0.8 votes from the electoral college and 7.8% of the popular vote. A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to take the White House.

“Trump has never been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign,” Silver said in an appearance on ABC News. “He did a great job of appealing to the 40% of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51% of 100%.”

An image of Nate Silver's general election prediction for this November, with the blue showing Hillary Clinton wins, the red showing Donald Trump wins, and the bold outlines signifying states with a tight race. Credit: FiveThirtyEight.com

An image of Nate Silver’s general election prediction for each state come November, with the blue showing Hillary Clinton wins, the red showing Donald Trump wins, and the bold outlines signifying states with a tight race. Credit: FiveThirtyEight.com

The model also shows interesting state trends. According to the model, Arizona and North Carolina, in the past reliably Republican states, will vote blue.

It also includes a bunch of “crazy and not-so-crazy” scenarios, with the chances of Johnson winning even a single electoral vote being pegged at a measly 5.7%, and a Trump landslide victory getting a 1.9%.

Western news outlets have jumped on the story, with many taking this big-name data analysis to be a confirmation of a Clinton presidency – or, more importantly, a humiliating Trump loss.

Pinch of salt

However, despite Silver’s successes in the last two elections, many – such as New York Magazine‘s Ed Kilgore – are skeptical about his predictions. This is in large part because of a slew of huge misses in the last two years. Salon reported some “high-profile” upsets for Silver after the 2014 midterm elections, both in senate and gubernatorial results. He had abjectly failed to anticipate the decisive influx of Republicans, and his models consistently portrayed an uncertainty driven by an assumed close race. In response, Silver published a piece in his defence that detailed ways in which the polls on which he based his models were skewed towards Democrats.

Even more damningly, Silver severely underestimated the allure of Trump, and in August 2015 gave him a 2% chance to win the Republican nomination. It was only by mid-February that his FiveThirtyEight foretold a 45-50% likelihood of a Trump nomination. In a piece titled ‘How I Acted Like a Pundit and Screwed Up on Donald Trump‘, Silver attempts to explain the miss by citing a lack of statistical models to track Trump due to there being no precedent for his rise, and an over-reliance on gut feelings and pundit-esque “subjective odds”. “When Trump came around, I’d turn out to be the overconfident expert,” he said, “making pretty much exactly the mistakes I’d accused my critics of four years earlier”.

But this professed ‘unforeseeability’ of the Trump phenomenon doesn’t explain why, this primary season, he predicted a 99% chance of Clinton winning the North Carolina Democratic primary, which senator Bernie Sanders won by half a point, or a 90% chance of winning Indiana which, again, Sanders won. Clinton is the archetypal establishment candidate for the democratic party and there should have been no dearth of data to build an analysis model on.

However, while projections must not be taken as set-in-stone predictions, Silver’s forecast models are made more tenable by the fact that they are largely in line with recent polls on the matter.

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Clinton two points ahead of Trump, and yesterday’s Fox News poll puts Clinton eight points ahead. Could Silver now score a hattrick?

Scientists Claim $177 Billion Lost Due to Poor Child Growth

The estimated reduction in earnings due to poor early growth is largest in South Asia.

Two-month-old Jyoti lies in a bed in a malnutrition intensive care unit in Dharbhanga Medical College in Dharbhanga in the eastern state of Bihar, India, April 16, 2015. Credit: Reuters/Poulomi Dey

London: Children born in developing countries this year will lose more than $177 billion in potential life-time earnings because of stunting and other delays in physical development, scientists said on Wednesday, June 29.

Children who have poor growth in their first years of life tend to perform worse at school which usually leads to poorer earning power later on.

The Harvard scientists calculated that every dollar invested in eliminating poor early growth would yield a $3 return.

“$177 billion is a big pay cheque that the world is missing out on – about half a percentage point of GDP of these countries,” said Peter Singer, head of Grand Challenges Canada, which funded the research through its Saving Brains programme.

“We have to stop wasting the world’s most precious economic and social asset and ensure children thrive.”

Poor nutrition, premature birth, low breastfeeding rates and early exposure to infection are among several causes of stunting which affects three in 10 children in the developing world.

World Bank President Jim Yong Kim recently warned that childhood stunting was “a great unrecognised disaster”, adding that countries which failed to invest in early child development would be left behind in an increasingly complex, digital world.

Echoing his remarks, Singer said the economic value of investing in children’s early years was “absolutely humongous”.

“In an age of essentially stagnant growth, ignoring this issue is the dumbest thing you could do for the global economy, while paying attention to this issue would be one of the smartest,” he told Reuters.

Breastfeeding and handwashing

Scientists at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health said their research represented the first in-depth study of the economic impact of poor early growth in low- and middle-income countries.

Progress in improving early childhood physical development has been slow compared to the significant achievements in reducing under-five mortality rates, the report said.

The Harvard scientists arrived at the $177 billion figure after looking at indicators for the 123 million children born in 2010 in 137 low and middle-income countries.

The estimated reduction in earnings due to poor early growth was largest in South Asia where children born in any given year can expect to lose $46.6 billion in potential earnings over their lifetimes, followed by Latin America ($44.7 billion) and sub-Saharan Africa ($34.2 billion).

Countries with the most to gain in terms of future incomes were India ($37.9 billion), Mexico ($18.5 billion), and China ($13.3 billion).

The report’s author, Gunther Fink, said strategies to improve child growth included improving antenatal care, encouraging mothers to exclusively breastfeed for at least six months and providing micro nutrients for children.

Improving handwashing would also boost development by helping to prevent diarrhoea which reduces the absorption of nutrients, said Fink.

Grand Challenges Canada, which is funded by the Canadian government, champions innovations designed to have a big impact in global health. Its Saving Brains programme supports new approaches for nurturing early brain development.

(Reuters)

Mongolia’s Opposition MPP Secures Election Majority Through Economic Promises

An anti-incumbency public sentiment defeated the ruling Democratic Party over its weak economic policies and strategies

An official from the General Election Commission of Mongolia speaks at a news conference, in front of an electronic board showing the results of parliamentary elections, in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, June 29, 2016. Credit: Reuters/Jason Lee

Ulaanbaatar: The main opposition Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) swept back to power in landslide parliamentary elections, results from Mongolia’s election committee showed on June 30, after campaigning dominated by concern over slowing economic growth.

The transformation of the former Soviet bloc state since a peaceful revolution in 1990 has been a big draw for foreign investors eyeing its rich mineral resources, unleashing a boom from 2010 to 2012.

But an abrupt economic slowdown since 2012 has stirred controversy over the role of global mining firms such as Rio Tinto, which last month finally approved a $5.3-billion extension plan for the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine.

The MPP’s victory will likely be greeted as a tailwind for the economy and international miners, as the party’s success in attracting investors when it last held power, from 2008-2012, led to the country being nicknamed “Mine-golia”.

The MPP, which has governed for most years since the revolution, won an 85% majority with 65 seats in the 76-member parliament, taking back power from the Democratic Party, an unnamed official from Mongolia’s general election committee told a press briefing.

The ruling Democratic Party won nine seats in the June 29 vote, down from 37. Prime Minister Chimed Saikhanbileg and the parliament’s chairman Zandaakhuu Enkhbold were among those kicked out of their seats.

“The Mongolian People’s Party’s landslide win shows the public assigning clear blame for the country’s economic woes to the outgoing Democratic Party government,” John Marrett, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in an emailed statement.

A late change of election rules hindered independents and small parties during the short 18-day campaign period.

One seat went to the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP), and one to an independent, popular folk singer Samand Javkhlan, who has taken up environmental causes.

Rising debt, mining revenue shortfalls

A vast country with just three million people, best known as the birthplace of Mongol emperor Genghis Khan, Mongolia had struggled in recent years to adapt to a downturn in fortunes.

Demand for coal and copper from giant neighbour China and weak commodities prices have hit Mongolia hard.

The IMF forecasts economic growth of 0.4% this year, compared with 17.5% in 2011, the year before the Democratic Party took power.

Since 2012, Mongolia has borrowed billions of dollars in sovereign debt. In March, rating agency Moody’s gave it a negative outlook, citing the rising debt burden, a projected widening of budgetary imbalances and mining revenue shortfalls.

The MPP has criticised the Democrats’ economic management and the borrowing spree, promising to reassess spending and tighten fiscal management.

Mongolian bonds jumped on the election results. The $500 million sovereign bonds due 2021 surged 3 points to 105.25/106 cents on the dollar, and the $500 million bonds from Trade Development Bank due 2020 rose 2.25 points to 97.75/98.75.

More than half of Mongolia’s people are under 30 and grew up in the post-Soviet period of rapid change in the land-locked democracy squeezed between autocratic China and Russia.

Begi, 22, gathered with other young voters outside the MPP’s headquarters at around 2 am to revel in their party’s victory.

“I’ve been waiting for this for a long time. I couldn’t believe the Democratic Party because they really ruined our country,” he said.

(Reuters)

Trump’s Trade Positions Face Opposition Within Republican Party

The US Chamber of Commerce’s criticism of Trump is unusual as many business leaders have traditionally supported Republican candidates.

The US chamber of commerce’s criticism of Trump is unusual as many business leaders have traditionally supported Republican candidates.

Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures while delivering a speech at the Alumisourse Building in Monessen, Pennsylvania, US, June 28, 2016. Credit: Reuters/Louis Ruediger

Washington: Presidential candidate Donald Trump on June 29 lashed out at the US chamber of commerce’s scathing criticism of his stance on trade, highlighting divisions within the Republican Party that threaten unity ahead of the November 8 election.

At a campaign rally in Maine on June 29, Trump called the nation’s largest business association “controlled totally by various groups of people who don’t care about you whatsoever”.

He said new trade deals should be negotiated because foreign countries are taking advantage of the US.

In the rally on June 29, Trump stated that countries that do business with the US look at it as “the stupid people with the penny bank.”

The Washington-based lobbying group, which represents the US’s largest companies and business interests, is typically a reliable backer of Republican policies.

But on June 28 it took issue with Trump’s vocal opposition to trade deals, calling his proposals “dangerous” ideas that would push the US into another recession.

Trump said the chamber’s argument that his policies would cause a trade war were incorrect because the US was already at a deficit.

“We’re already losing the trade war, we lost the trade war,” Trump said. “Nothing can happen worse than is happening now.”

In speeches on June 28, Trump called for renegotiating or scrapping the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico, calling it a job killer, and reiterated opposition to the pending Trans-Pacific Partnership among the US and 11 other Pacific Rim countries. He also lambasted China’s trade and currency policies.

The chamber has consistently backed trade deals.

The public squabbling between the presumptive Republican nominee and the business group was unusual, one of a series of reminders that Trump still struggles to unite his party behind his campaign. The Republicans and many business leaders tend to share policy goals and work in lockstep, and many business leaders have traditionally been big donors to Republican candidates.

So far, the chamber’s political action committee has donated $134,000 to federal candidates or their committees, with $127,500 of that total going to Republicans, according to US government campaign finance records.

Billionaire Republican donor Paul Singer, who bankrolled an effort to try to defeat Trump during the campaign’s nominating phase, said on June 29 that a Trump presidency and his trade positions would almost certainly lead to a global depression.

“The most impactful of the economic policies that I recall him coming out for are these anti-trade policies,” Singer said during a panel discussion at the Aspen Ideas Festival in Colorado, according to CNBC.

But opposing trade deals has proven a winning strategy for Trump among voters concerned about the loss of manufacturing jobs.

Art Laffer, an economic adviser to former US president Ronald Reagan who supports Trump, said he did not like the tone of Trump’s speech on June 28 but thought it was an improvement over his past comments on trade.

“It’s not terribly alarming to me,” Laffer said. “I didn’t see any 45% tariffs…”

“I saw negotiating better trade deals rather than throwing away all the trade deals we have now. He points out the flaws in these trades, and that’s all true,” Laffer said. “I don’t like the tone of it, but I dislike the tone less today than I did three weeks ago.”

Peter Navarro, a Trump trade policy adviser, defended the candidate’s position.

“Here’s the central point to understand: The White House has been utterly and completely soft on China’s illegal trade practices,” said Navarro, a professor at the University of California, Irvine. “The status quo is the worst of all possible worlds for the US.”

Trump also took fire for his positions on trade from Democrats.

In a call organised by rival Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, US senator Mark Warner of Virginia, a former businessman and tech entrepreneur, said that while the country needed to do a better job protecting workers, more resources should be put into training them for a new economy.

He also noted that it was unusual to see a Republican standard-bearer and the Chamber divide.

“You’ve really got a special circumstance when the US Chamber of Commerce responded to Trump’s economic plan with a full-fledged onslaught,” Warner said. “No one could have predicted this kind of election season.”

Clinton held no public campaign events on June 29 but did announce she would appear next week with President Barack Obama, the first time this year that he and his former secretary of state have campaigned together.

(Reuters)

Rights Groups Urge UN to Suspend Saudi Arabia From Human Rights Council

A two-third majority vote by the 193-member UN General Assembly can suspend a state from the Geneva-based UN Human Rights Council.

A defaced poster of the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is seen on the rubble of a house during a vigil marking one year since a Saudi-led air strike on a residential area in Sanaa, Yemen on June 21. Credit: Reuters/Khaled Abdullah

United Nations: Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch called on the UN General Assembly on Wednesday to suspend Saudi Arabia from the UN Human Rights Council until a Saudi-led military coalition stops killing civilians in Yemen.

“Saudi Arabia has amassed an appalling record of violations in Yemen while a Human Rights Council member,” said Philippe Bolopion, deputy director for global advocacy at Human Rights Watch. “UN member countries should stand with Yemeni civilians and suspend Saudi Arabia immediately.”

A Saudi-led coalition began an air campaign in Yemen in March 2015 to defeat Iran-allied Houthi rebels.

Saudi Arabia is in its final year of a three-year term on the 47-member Human Rights Council. The Saudi mission to the UN did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

A two-third majority vote by the 193-member UN General Assembly can suspend a state from the Geneva-based UN Human Rights Council for persistently committing gross and systematic violations of human rights during its membership.

A senior UN diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said of the push to suspend Saudi Arabia: “I’m not anticipating that movement going anywhere.”

Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International said they had documented 69 unlawful air strikes, some of which may amount to war crimes, in Yemen by the coalition in which at least 913 civilians were killed.

The UN briefly blacklisted the Saudi coalition this month for killing children in Yemen. However, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon succumbed to what he described as unacceptable pressure and removed the coalition from the blacklist pending a joint review.

UN sanctions monitors said in January that the coalition had targeted civilians in Yemen and that some of the attacks could be crimes against humanity.

Sarah Leah Watson, head of Human Rights Watch’s Middle East and North Africa Division, said the US may be complicit in war crimes because of targeting assistance the US military is providing the Saudi-led coalition.

US state department spokesman Mark Toner declined to comment on the accusation or say how Washington might vote in any push to remove Saudi Arabia from the Human Rights Council. “We continue to urge all sides in the conflict to protect civilians,” Toner told reporters.

The UN General Assembly has previously suspended a country from the Human Rights Council. In March 2011, the UN General Assembly unanimously suspended Libya because of violence against protesters by forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.

(Reuters)

India Should Leverage Its Domestic Nuclear Market to Soften China on NSG Membership

New Delhi must also engage with Beijing on talks on strategic stability which could change China’s mindset on India’s nuclear status.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Xian, Shaanxi province, China. Credit: Reuters

India is understandably disappointed that the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) meeting at Seoul concluded without granting it admission. But then it was unrealistic in the first place to expect that a group whose raison d’etre has been to deny India nuclear technology could welcome the country so soon after it applied for membership. Yes, India had been preparing the ground for this since its exceptionalisation in 2008. But, it was expected that the formal application would run into ‘formal’ objections. A lot of commentary has since emerged in the national media to either lambast or laud the Indian government for its efforts. Well, the government did what it had to do. Not all efforts of this nature, where the decision is dependent on a consensus amongst fiercely independent sovereign nations, can guarantee success. Efforts, nevertheless, have to continue as long as India believes that the NSG membership is in its interest.

Two basic understandings discerned from the recent developments on why China behaved the way it did must direct future efforts.

First, the NSG meeting turned out to be China’s coming out party. This is a new China that the world is witnessing and Premier Xi Jinping believes that the time to come out into the open to stand up for his country’s interests is here. Gone is the China of the past that stayed in the background letting, even abetting, others do what it secretly desired. Rarely in the past has China opted to be singled out as an obstructionist to a decision that the majority seemed to favour. But this time China decided to play its own cards. It refused to submit to American pressure, which is both a sign of its own rise as well as the relative fall of the ability of the US to wield influence. China’s stand was as much targeted at India as it was at sending a message to the US. This new China will have to be handled with an appropriately calibrated strategy crafted across a range of actions. While many analysts have already advocated sending a ‘tough message’, it would be prudent to find pressure points that are subtle yet significant. Blatant machismo could backfire.

The second reason behind China’s stance comprises of purely commercial and strategic interests. In recent years, China has emerged as the poster boy of the nuclear industry. It is simultaneously building the maximum number of reactors that the world has ever seen being built across the world, let alone in a single country! It has entered into nuclear cooperation agreements with Argentina, Romania and the UK, and is desirous of fast emerging as a nuclear supplier. Why then would it want to grant a seat to another potential nuclear supplier that could eat into its own market and space? After all, India’s 220 MW pressurised heavy-water reactor, which has been its own workhorse for many decades, could be an attractive reactor for many smaller first time nuclear nations. At the more strategic level, India as an NSG member, assumes the same nuclear status that China has and this is certainly not palatable to a China that refuses to acknowledge India as a nuclear armed nation.

In order to address China’s negativity towards a nuclear New Delhi, India could first begin by engaging with it in the peaceful nuclear energy sector. It may be recalled that China did express an interest in India’s commercial nuclear power sector in 2014. Many analysts, at the time, turned up their nose and cited security reasons to turn down the offer. While there is no doubt that India has security concerns related to China, ways of cooperation in the civilian nuclear area can be found. The Indian nuclear market appeals to a mercantilist China and it has certainly progressed in developing an indigenous nuclear reactor. It would do India no harm to allow China to participate along with others for commercial power reactors as long as market forces find them viable and Indian regulatory processes endorse their technical worth. Also, industries on both sides could collaborate for manufacture of nuclear equipment. Joint research and development in common areas of interest, as well as cooperation between the centres of excellence could be ideas to start with.

On the strategic front, India’s growing nuclear capability – soon to be operational Agni V and INS Arihant, testing of Brahmos with the Su-30 – do matter to China. India must drum up the need for the two to engage in talks on strategic stability if a tricky situation is to be prevented from ballooning into a crisis. Holding such talks would change China’s mindset on India’s nuclear status.

Lastly, India must refuse to carry the albatross of Pakistan around its neck. Amongst the many objections that China has raised to obfuscate issues related to India’s entry into the NSG, the most lethal attempt is to link it with that of Pakistan. Since Pakistan’s entry into the NSG is unacceptable to most members, hyphenating India with Pakistan amounts to killing the move. But, the cases of the two countries are completely different in proliferation history and behaviour, nuclear doctrine and strategy, and even in the desire for strategic stability, given that Pakistan thrives on nuclear brinkmanship. India should refuse to accept any equality that is sought to be granted to Pakistan. In fact, it must decline the NSG membership if it comes with the rider that Pakistan will also be admitted at the same time.

Dr Manpreet Sethi is senior fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi, where she heads the project on nuclear security.

After Istanbul Airport Blast, US to Classify Turkey as ‘Unaccompanied Tour’

The change would mean that US military deployments to Turkey would be reduced to one year from two and troops would not be allowed to bring their families.

A US Air Force Boeing C-17A Globemaster III large transport aircraft flies over a minaret after taking off from Incirlik air base in Adana, Turkey. Credit: Reuters/Murad Sezer/Files

Berlin: The US is moving toward permanently banning families from accompanying US military and civilian personnel in Turkey, reflecting worsening security conditions there, two US defence sources said on Wednesday, June 29.

The Obama administration in March ordered the families of US military and diplomatic personnel to leave Incirlik air base, which has been used heavily in the fight against ISIS militants, and other parts of southern Turkey. At the time, it said the move was not permanent.

The move affected about 670 dependents of US military personnel in southern Turkey, while 100 others in Istanbul and Ankara were allowed to stay.

Now, military officials plan to designate deployments by all US military and civilian personnel to Incirlik base in Adana and other sites in Turkey as ‘unaccompanied’ tours, the sources told Reuters. The move was under consideration before the June 28 suicide bomb attacks at Istanbul’s main airport, which killed at least 41 people and wounded 239 others, the sources said.

“The change reflects the continued deterioration of security conditions throughout Turkey,” said one of the sources, who was not authorised to speak publicly.

The change, which must still be finalised by the Defence Department, would mean that US military deployments to Turkey would be reduced to one year from two and troops would not be allowed to bring their families.

The US military has about 2,200 service members and civilian employees in Turkey, about 1,500 of whom are posted to Incirlik base.

The change would not apply to US personnel who are part of a ‘chief of mission’ role or security cooperation team, the sources said.

The 100 dependents of US personnel still in Turkey would be allowed to stay once the new rules took effect and would depart through natural attrition, said one of the sources.

The State Department on June 28, warned US citizens of increased threats from militant groups throughout Turkey and urged them to avoid travelling to the southeastern part of the country. It also extended the temporary departure orders for families of US personnel working in Adana and Izmir province through July 26.

(Reuters)

The Loneliest Man in Istanbul

As the loneliest man in Istanbul taught me, we cannot let war strip us of our humanity and we cannot let our struggles make us ungenerous.

Istanbul at sunset, seen from the Bosphorus strait. Credit: Moyan Brenn/Flickr CC BY 2.0

Istanbul: On a warm May evening, the loneliest man in Istanbul sat by himself on a bench in a park in Fatih, a neighbourhood of long avenues sloping past arrangements of parks, children’s playgrounds, concrete tracks and restaurants.

In the past two years, the neighbourhood had become home to many of the estimated 3 million Syrians who, having fled their war-stricken home, were settled in Turkey. The local markets had re-oriented themselves around their newer, transient, itinerant patrons: some Turkish restaurants had made way for Syrian ones, some shopkeepers now spelled out their wares in Arabic scripted in brightly lit LEDs.

There were cybercafes to Skype with relatives scattered across the world, telephone booths to call both Europe and Syria, pawn shops, Western Unions, havala operators, cafes and spice shops selling dry powdered ginger, coffee ground with cinnamon, and sugary concoctions of almonds and pistachios.

The loneliest man sat by himself, the light from a streetlamp bouncing off his bald head, the muggy breeze teasing his dark tie secured tight at the neck of his white shirt worn close beneath a dark suit slightly shiny at the elbows.

The loneliest man in Istanbul. Credit: Aman Sethi

“Can I offer you a cigarette?” he said to a passing journalist. He reached into a black plastic bag stuffed with leaf tobacco, cylinders of cigarette paper and a fiddly plastic gadget for filling the former into the latter.

“Are you here from Syria?”

“My mother is Syrian, my father was Turkish. I was born in Jeddah, you know, in Saudi. Where my father was a lawyer. And then in 2000 we moved to Damascus, where my father, he had a heart attack and he died.”

He was was 24 at the time. He finished college, set up a shop, “We sold bread and ice cream. It was very popular. Just bread and ice cream.” He married a Syrian woman, the couple had two children, “both girls,” his younger sister married an Uzbek man and moved to London. His sister had two children, “both girls”. Then one day, he saw tanks, protestors, firing, rockets, “Just outside my house in Damascus.”

So in 2012, at the age of 36, for the first time in his life, he – as a citizen of Turkey – arrived in Istanbul with his family to seek refuge. “I had two passports, one Syrian, from my mother’s side, one Turkish, from my father. But I spoke no Turkish, I did not know a soul”.

Without the language, it was impossible to find any work. “I enrolled in military service (mandatory for all Turkish men) – it was good. But my wife hated life in Istanbul. Every day she would say, “I am going back to Damascus, I’m going back to Damascus”.

And then one day, she did – with the children. Back in Damascus, his wife married again. His mother sold the family home and moved to London to be with her daughter.

“Then I am suffering too much. I cannot do anything.”

The military ordered a medical examination. “The doctor say, my psychology is not good. Not good at all. My commanders they try to help me. But I am suffering too much. Now I am stuck here in Turkey. I do not know anyone – not a single Turkish person. But I am not Syrian – so I cannot apply for asylum. Every time I try to apply…

…’Sorry, you are a Turkish person. You have a Turkish passport. There is no war in Turkey. You are safe in Turkey’.”

“But I am from Syria…

…Sorry, you are a Turkish person. You have a Turkish passport. There is no war in Turkey. You are safe in Turkey’.”

“But my mother is Syrian. I have never lived in Turkey, I do not know language, I do not have job…

…Sorry, you are a Turkish person. You have a Turkish passport. There is no war in Turkey. You are safe in Turkey’.”

The loneliest man was trapped inside his own country, which was never his country at all.

So shunned by the Turkish, he found work doing 12-hour shifts (8 am to 8 pm – “This is not justice!”) as the maître d’ of a Syrian restaurant, serving fellow Syrians displaced by the war. He earned 1,700 lira a month, of which 700 went in rent for a single room a 20-minute walk away.

Was a stranger story ever told?

In 1955, Sadat Hassan Manto published Toba Tek Singh, a short story on the partition of India and Pakistan.

It begins in Manto’s inimitable fashion:

Two or three years after the 1947 Partition, it occurred to the governments of India and Pakistan to exchange their lunatics in the same manner as they had exchanged their criminals. The Muslim lunatics in India were to be sent over to Pakistan and the Hindu and Sikh lunatics in Pakistani asylums were to be handed over to India.

And follows the fate of Bishan Singh, a lunatic from the village of “Toba Tek Singh”, desperate to know if his village is now in India or Pakistan.

In the insane asylum there was also a lunatic who called himself God. When one day Bishan Singh asked him whether Toba Tek Singh was in Pakistan or Hindustan, he burst out laughing, as was his habit, and said, “It’s neither in Pakistan nor in Hindustan – because we haven’t given the order yet.”

On June 29, powerful explosions ripped through Istanbul, killing at least 41 people, as three suicide bombers detonated their vests in the waiting area of Ataturk International Airport. The violence, executed by ISIS, Turkish authorities believe, is the most recent and terrifying sign that the war in Syria has followed those fleeing it.

The day before brought news that CIA-supplied Kalashnikovs, mortars and RPGs intended for the Syrian rebel faction palpable to the West had ended up on the Middle Eastern black market courtesy Jordanian intelligence. In the meantime, the British opted to leave Europe, rather than offer him a home.

For the loneliest man, home and security were neither in Syria, nor in Turkey. Who was fighting ISIS and who was arming them? He had no answers because some lunatic somewhere hadn’t given the order yet.

The loneliest man in Istanbul pulls up a photograph of his nieces in London. Credit: Aman Sethi

But then he pulled out his phone and found a photograph of his nieces in London, two young Syrian-Uzbek girls grinning awkwardly beside the Queen of Hearts at a village fair somewhere in the English countryside.

He Skyped briefly with his mother (“Mamma, I’ll call you, I’m sitting with someone”). His phone filled up with news and photographs from friends and family around the world – he dragged the journalist to a Syrian-owned cafe for an unending series of meats, sweets and minty lime drinks. And at the end of the meal, he insisted on paying because, as he suggested, this was a difficult time, but we could also “make time” – capture a moment when lives on different time scales could coexist and converse. We can make time for each other, make time for a coffee in Fatih, to talk Damascus and Delhi.

We can make time for a next time – when we can return a gift of a generous meal offered amidst ungenerous times. Because, as the loneliest man in Istanbul taught me, we cannot let war strip us of our humanity, and we cannot let our struggles make us ungenerous.

The waitress smiled – she was Syrian too, a man walked by and waved – “He’s like me – Turkish passport, but grew up in Syria.” Istanbul’s loneliest Turk had built himself a world.

The reporting for this piece is part of a broader project sponsored by the Goethe Centre, New Delhi, and the Appan Menon Memorial Grant. A version of this reportage shall appear here.