One of the Western media’s most highly regarded editors and columnists has said that as things stand, US President Donald Trump could be heading for a landslide defeat or, at least, a heavy defeat. The Financial Times‘s US national editor and chief US commentator Ed Luce says that the first US Presidential Debate really did Trump harm and now the impact of COVID-19 on his image and campaign could be devastating. Conceding that perhaps around 40%, which is considered Trump’s core vote, will vote for him come what may, Luce adds that they, however, won’t decide the election. It will be decided by the other 60%.
In a 41-minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Luce, who earlier served as the Financial Times chief of bureau in India, says the majority of Americans don’t like Trump and are pretty fired up by that, even if they are not enamoured of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. He says all the polls suggest that around two-thirds of the American people believe that Trump has behaved irresponsibly in response to the COVID-19 crisis.
Luce told The Wire that a core section of Trump voters seems to have shifted their preference to Biden. In 2016, when he was fighting Hillary Clinton, the vast majority of the over-65 age group voted for Trump. Now, Biden is leading in this section of the population by double digits, Luce says.
Trump, who was diagnosed with COVID-19 last week and was hospitalised, returned to White House earlier this week. In a released immediately after his return to the White House, he said, “As your leader, I had to do that. I knew there is a danger to it, but I had to do it. I stood out front. I led”. Commenting on these statements, Luce told The Wire this was “a little bit neo-fascist”. However, there are a lot of Republicans who believe this is precisely what is expected of a leader at a time of crisis. They believe Trump is leading by personal example.
Speaking about the US president’s health, Luce says Trump’s doctor Sean Conley has virtually “thrown the kitchen sink at him, medically speaking”. He says Trump is “drugged up to the eyeballs” and is still “mid-treatment”. He points that the steroids Trump is taking give “exhilaration” and create “hyper-energetic responses” although he adds that it’s very hard to tell the difference in Trump’s behaviour when he is “drugged up to the eyeballs” and “not drugged up to the eyeballs”.
Speaking critically of Trump’s doctor Conley, Ed Luce says that he takes his oath to the commander-in-chief more seriously than the Hippocratic Oath. He says Dr Conley is “a spin doctor and not just a doctor”.
Ed Luce confirmed to The Wire that almost every member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, including the chairman, are either down with COVID-19 or in quarantine. That is also true of several senior advisors and officials in the White House. He says although it’s unlikely there is, therefore, “a wide-open window” for what he calls “an October surprise”. In such an event, he suggests the White House could be caught underprepared.
Speaking about the voting, which will happen in less than four week’s time on November 3, Luce said that if it turns out to be a close result, there’s enormous potential for violence and every likelihood that the outcome could be referred to the Supreme Court as, of course, happened in the 2000 elections, when George Bush and Al Gore were candidates. He said in that event, one worrying factor is that America has some 30,000 people with arms in various right-wing groups. President Trump has already called upon his supporters to maintain a vigil outside polling booths.
The above is a paraphrased precis of Ed Luce’s interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire. Although not inaccurate it’s recounted from memory. There is, of course, a lot more in the interview than has been covered in this precis. Please see the full interview to appreciate Ed Luce’s arguments and the sweeping breadth of his comments about President Trump, his illness, its impact on the White House and US governance, on Trump’s image, campaign and re-election prospects and the concerns about the voting in four weeks.
