India is currently experiencing intense heat waves, with temperatures soaring up to 50° Celsius across various regions. This ongoing heat wave marks the third consecutive year that the country has experienced severe heat. Residents describe the heat as relentless, making it difficult to live in places like Delhi. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts an increase in heat wave days in northwestern regions this month, well beyond the usual occurrence. Human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions play a significant role in shaping these regional climate shifts, and efforts to limit global temperatures are crucial to prevent such situations from recurring.
India ranks as the world’s third-largest GHG emitter, with a total of 3.16 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2 eq) emissions. However, when considering emissions per capita, India emits 2.29 tonnes per person, which is comparatively lower than other major countries. For instance, the European Union (EU) has slightly higher GHG emissions overall, but only one-third of the emissions per capita. In contrast, the United States and China have 7- and 4-times higher GHG emissions per capita, respectively. It’s important to note that India’s modern economic development began later, contributing to its higher emission intensity, both with respect to GDP and GDP, relative to advanced economies in 2021.
India has ambitious growth plans over the next 25 years, aiming to achieve developed country status by 2047. However, current policies may lead to a 41% increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030. India’s National Determined Contribution (NDC) targets a 45% reduction in emissions intensity of its GDP by 2030 (compared to 2005 levels). While India has already achieved a 33% reduction in emissions intensity in 2019, model estimates indicate that additional mitigation policies are necessary to align emissions with long-term goals.
Agriculture plays a critical role in the battle against climate change. Any disruption in weather patterns, such as temperature fluctuations or irregular rainfall, can severely impact this delicate ecosystem. India’s agriculture sector, which employs nearly half of the country’s workforce (45.8%) and contributes significantly to GDP (18.3%) faces the dual challenge of being both a victim of climate change and a significant GHG emitter. While climate policies focus on adapting to these challenges, emissions from agriculture are often overlooked and labeled as ‘survival emissions.’
However, it is essential to recognise that these emissions have increased from 446 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2000 to 622 million tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2019. Recognising these figures is crucial, for it reveals agriculture as a behemoth in the greenhouse gas arena, contributing to 19.83% of the nation’s total emissions when downstream sources are accounted for. Notably, methane emissions from livestock’s enteric fermentation is the largest contributor (36%), followed by carbon dioxide from electricity production for agriculture (29%). Nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils (14%) – resulting from practices like fertilisation and organic compost – are the third major category.
Additionally, methane emissions from flooded rice cultivation (12%) and other sources contribute to the overall emissions. Manure management, fertiliser production, and field burning of agricultural residues account for the remaining 9%. And if upstream emissions – occur during the production of goods or services that your company purchases or makes use of – are also included, then the emissions will rise further. Agriculture is also the dominant source of atmospheric nitrous oxide and methane, which are respectively 273 and 27.2 times more powerful than carbon-dioxide for driving temperature increase in 100 years’ time. In India, the sector is responsible for 73% and 75% of country’s nitrous oxide emissions and methane emissions respectively, urging us to see agriculture as a significant player in the climate narrative.
Figure 2: Share of agriculture Green-House Gas (GHG) emissions in India
Source: Author’s calculations using India-TNC-IAC 2023
While India has taken climate-friendly steps to promote sustainable agriculture, it has yet to commit to reducing agricultural emissions and transitioning toward decarbonisation. Several factors contribute to this hesitation.
First, the smallholder nature of Indian agriculture makes promoting low-carbon practices challenging.
Second, concerns about potential negative impacts on food production and the difficulty of measuring emissions at the individual farm level play a role.
Lastly, there may be a lack of political will to address this critical issue.
India faces conflicting policies: a net-zero target by 2070 alongside the promotion of the “LiFE” (Lifestyle for Environment) concept, even as emissions are subsidised through policies. This paradoxical situation juxtaposes sustainable living with economic and environmental priorities. The national budget, a reflection of intent, must strike a balance. In TE 2023-24, the Union Budget allocated Rs 1,979 billion for fertiliser subsidy. Notably, Rs 1,315 billion (approximately 66% of the total subsidy) was allocated to urea, which falls outside the Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) regime. Historically, this has distorted urea prices relative to phosphorus (P) and potassium (K), making urea the cheapest nitrogen source.
Unfortunately, widespread broadcasting of urea leads to substantial emissions — both direct and indirect — making it an unsustainable choice despite government incentives. The Commission for Agricultural Costs and Price (CACP) establishes Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) for 23 crops, but only wheat and rice receive major procurement attention from the Food Corporation of India (FCI), primarily in select states. Despite rice being the most GHG-intensive crop, emitting up to 5 tonnes of CO2 eq per hectare, compared to less than 1 tonne of CO2 eq per hectare for other crops and requiring 20-25 irrigation channels (compared to 4-5 for other crops), yet farmers cultivate it repeatedly to shield themselves from the market’s risks. State-sponsored power subsidies play a crucial role, providing free or cheap energy for irrigation pumps, thereby sustaining rice cultivation. For example, Punjab’s government allocated Rs 83.8 billion to power subsidy, despite underlying power struggles and inefficiencies.
Indian political parties’ climate-related commitments often lack the necessary attention. For the new National Democratic Alliance government, prioritising climate issues becomes crucial. Agriculture will be severely impacted if climate goals are not met. Yet, achieving these goals requires addressing unsustainable agricultural systems, emissions and policies that harm both the planet and people’s health. It’s time for Modi 3.0 to integrate agriculture and food agendas into the fight against climate change. Neglecting to mitigate agricultural emissions would indeed contradict the newly established constitutional right to be free from the adverse effects of climate change, as the Supreme Court ruled in April 2024, invoking Article 21 (the fundamental right to life and personal liberty) and Article 14 (the fundamental right to equality).
Dr. Reena Singh is a Senior Fellow at Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), New Delhi. She has worked at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) on the execution and diffusion of greener and sustainable agriculture and wasteland solutions in India for over 20 years.