Kochi: The importance of science and research and the role of the youth in tackling the climate crisis dominated the events on November 10, which was day 5 of COP27 climate talks at Sharm El-Sheikh in Egypt. Negotiations revolved around loss and damage and climate finance including long-term finance, while informal consultations included discussions on the Global Goal on Adaptation.
The day began with the opening ceremony of the Youth and Future Generations Day and Youth-led Climate Forum. At the same time and in a parallel session, Science Day kicked off with a discussion on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) 6th assessment report.
Upholding importance of science
November 10 was punctuated with numerous discussions that highlighted the role of science, data and research in studying and finding solutions for adapting to and mitigating climate change.
“Science plays a key role in informing the climate process, providing critical evidence and numbers to build the case for action and the urgency of implementation,” said COP27 president Sameh Shoukry, at the opening session. “We hope that all the participants in our thematic day on science leave with a stronger desire for finding science-based solutions and plan for implementation that leaves no one behind.”
As part of Science Day at COP27, Egypt launched its first Vulnerability Assessment Map, which was informed by data from the IPCC. The Global Stocktake Climate Datathon discussed the role of data in the Global Stocktake, to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement. At another session, “Uniting Global Scientific Research Efforts to Tackle Climate Change”, the key takeaway was a call for policy makers to use scientific research to help move from assessment to implementation. The Presidency also launched a One Health Initiative at the session, “Health and Climate Change: One Health for All: One Vision and One Response”.
New climate science insights
The day witnessed the launch of the report titled “10 New Insights in Climate Science 2022”, a joint initiative of Future Earth, Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme. The annual reports (launched since 2017 with the UNFCCC) synthesise the latest climate science related research based on which it makes policy recommendations. Sixty-five researchers from 23 countries contributed to the report.
Among the many findings of the report is that as many as 1.6 billion people live in ‘vulnerability hotspots’, and this number is projected to double by 2050. “That’s one third of the global population living in regions approaching limitations in adaptation and being at risk of social instability,” said Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, and the lead author of the report. There are also new threats on the horizon due to climate health interactions, he added. The impacts of climate change on health for both humans, animals and entire ecosystems are increasingly widespread and there are higher risks of infectious diseases that require more action such as surveillance and early warning systems, he said.
Climate change is also amplifying human mobility such as displacement and migration and pushing societies towards conflict. Sustainable goals are crucial to meet climate targets. Private sustainable finance practices are failing to catalyze deep transitions, shifting financial flows at the pace of scale required, said Rockstorm. The scientific community concludes that loss and damage is an “urgent planetary imperative” and that we need a coordinated policy response to account for past, current and expected future losses and damages. The biggest insight from the report is that we now have unequivocal scientific evidence that systems changes are required to decarbonise the world’s economy.
Another is that adaptation alone will not be enough, said Simon Stiell, secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. “Adaptation actions are still crucial and critical to upgrade small scale fragmented and reactive efforts. But the potential to adapt is not limitless and will not prevent all losses and damage that we have seen.”
We need stronger national climate action plans, and we need to do it now, said Stiell.
Rush for gas could cause more emissions
A New Carbon Action Tracker analysis showed that “massive” gas expansion plans – caused by the rush for natural gas in the backdrop of the Ukraine war – threaten the 1.5°C warming limit. Gas capacities currently under construction, combined with plans for expansion, could increase emissions by over 1.9 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent per year in 2030, which is above the emission levels consistent with the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero by 2050 scenario. (The IEA’s 2022 update said that the total gas use globally by 2030 needs to be at least 30% below 2021 levels, about 45% faster than estimated a year ago in 2021.)
There have been no substantial improvements of existing net zero pledges since COP26, and though policy implementation has progressed, it “remains too slow”, as per the CAT analysis. Though COP27 is being billed as the “Implementation COP”, “we are still not seeing the scale nor speed of implementation needed to close the gap and keep the possibility of 1.5°C open,” the report said.
India submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contributions in August and it will achieve these targets with its current level of climate action; the new targets will not drive further emissions reductions, the CAT report read. “Details on the 2070 net zero target are still missing: it is unclear whether it covers just CO2 or all GHGs. There is progress on renewable energy installation, but clear policy direction towards phasing out coal is still missing. The government is planning to add more coal capacity and increase fossil gas in the energy mix.”
On the same day at Sharm El-Sheikh, African governments said that they must be allowed to develop fossil fuel resources to help lift their people out of poverty.
Roadmap for more sustainable food systems
The Food and Agriculture Organisation will launch a plan within the year to make the world’s food system more sustainable, reported Reuters. They expect to create a climate roadmap by COP28.
Deputy director Zitouni Ould-Dada, speaking on the sidelines of COP27, told Reuters that with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hiking food prices globally and compounding the food insecurity caused by climate change, delegates at the conference were more open to discussing the issue.
Solar energy has saved billions in Asia
A report published early November 10 by Ember, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has found that solar power has saved billions in Asia.
The contribution of solar generation in China, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand has avoided potential fossil fuel costs of approximately US$34 billion from January to June 2022. India is also among the five Asian countries that are among the top ten economies with the largest solar capacity.
In India, solar generation avoided $4.2 billion in fuel costs in the first half of the year alone. This means that it saved on 19.4 million tonnes of coal. The report also predicts that solar power will likely witness exponential growth at an average annual growth rate of 22% until 2030 across five countries including India.
Youth join in on protests
Protests continued, with individuals and civil society groups demanding that rich countries and polluters pay compensation for loss and damage.
“We must not allow these negotiations to become another talk shop without producing any actions, without producing reparations, justice and loss and damage financing for the global south,” one protestor shouted. “And that’s why we continue with our calls, we continue to demand – pay up, pay up!”
There were also demands for a loss and damage fund, and to “kick polluters out”, with 600 fossil fuel lobbyists also taking part in the conference per one estimate – an increase of 25% compared to last year.
The youth joined the fray too.
“We want climate justice now,” shouted Licypriya Kangujam, a 11-year-old environmental activist from Manipur, India. “My generation is already the victim of climate change. I do not want my future generations to face the same consequences.”
There can be no climate justice without human rights, another group protested, asking that jailed activist Alaa Abdel Fattah, as well as all other prisoners lodged in Egypt’s jails for their activism, be released.
On the cards today
Talks about decarbonisation – of the oil and gas industry and the steel, fertilizer and cement industry, among others – will be high on the agenda, as today is Decarbonization Day. Carbon budgets will be among the discussion points, with the Global Carbon Budget being released today.
Achieving a just transition – moving to cleaner energy sources and making changes in such a way that no one is left behind – in the race to cut down on carbon emissions will feature in many events and discussions on November 11, Day 6 of COP27.