New Delhi: It has taken three attempts for Boris Johnson to finally arrive in India in his capacity as UK prime minister. But even as he landed on Thursday with the promise of strengthening trade ties, his visit continues to be shadowed by his domestic travails and conflict in Europe.
Here is a quick primer on the UK prime minister’s visit to India, during which both governments hope to spotlight trade and people-to-people ties. He arrived in Gujarat on Thursday morning and travels to New Delhi on Friday to hold talks with the Indian leadership.
Third time’s the charm?
Johnson has taken nearly four years to visit India since his elevation to the top job in July 2019. But, it is not for want of trying.
Johnson was even announced as the chief guest of the 2021 Republic Day parade. But, it was cancelled when the number of COVID-19 cases in the UK started to rise. In the second attempt, the COVID-19 situation in India led to his re-scheduled trip also getting called off after four months later, in April 2021. It was right at the start of the devastating second wave of the pandemic, which saw India face major shortages in hospital beds and oxygen supply.
The opposition had even accused the Johnson government of delaying putting India on the ‘red list’ of countries in the run-up to the original schedule, which led to the spread of the Delta variant in the UK.
Troubles back home
However, even as he arrives in India, there will be no sense of triumphalism. Johnson will be trailed on the visit by the reverberations of the deliberations of the UK parliament’s vote on whether to refer the prime minister for a formal investigation into whether he misled lawmakers about his knowledge of parties at Downing Street despite COVID-19 restrictions.
Last week, the Metropolitan Police revealed that Johnson and the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak had been fined for attending the former’s birthday party in Downing Street in June 2020, in violation of COVID-19 rules on gatherings. Johnson apologised in parliament on Tuesday but claimed that he didn’t know that he was attending a party.
With the opposition baying for his resignation, the parliamentary debate will likely take place on Thursday when Johnson will be in Gujarat for the first leg of his India visit. Since he won’t be in London, the UK prime minister’s defence will be done by a cabinet colleague.
The main opposition Labour party said that the India trip was Johnson’s way to distract from his constitutional crisis at home, where ministers are supposed to resign if they acknowledge misleading the parliament. According to The Independent, Nick Thomas-Symonds, the shadow international trade secretary, said Johnson must secure commitments on climate change and labour standards in supply chains otherwise, it will be a viewed “as a vanity trip to distract from the prime minister’s law-breaking and failure to tackle the cost-of-living crisis”.
No public ‘lecture’ on Ukraine
While there may be some announcements on trade and defence during the trip, Johnson is not likely to bring up the ongoing Ukraine-Russian war in public during his stay in India.
As part of the US-led Western bloc targeting Russia through sanctions, the Ukraine war is now at the top of London’s foreign policy priorities. Johnson had even travelled to Ukraine and walked the war-ravaged streets of Kyiv with President Volodymyr Zelensky as a sign of the UK’s unwavering support.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson hold ceramic roosters presented by local women, the same that were found among debris of residential building destroyed during Russia’s invasion, in Borodianka town, central Kyiv, Ukraine April 9, 2022. Photo: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via Reuters
Since February, India has abstained from all West-backed resolutions passed in various UN bodies against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It has also increased the purchase of oil from Russia, which is not in violation of any sanctions but has led to an alarmed response from Washington. A defensive India has pointed out Europe’s continuing energy ties with Russia.
The template of the UK’s approach to Ukraine vis-à-vis India was already put into practice during the earlier trip of foreign secretary Liz Truss. Billed as a “diplomatic push on Ukraine”, Truss publicly stated that she would not lecture India or any other nation on how to react to the crisis.
In line with this tone, the UK government’s announcement on April 17 of Boris Johnson’s India visit did not mention Russia directly but only used a euphemism. “As we face threats to our peace and prosperity from autocratic states, it is vital that democracies and friends stick together,” Johnson said, as quoted in the official communique.
Sources also said that there would undoubtedly be discussions on Ukraine during the formal talks, especially on the long-term impact – but there will be no public recriminations. “Remember what (the UK foreign secretary) said, ‘That I am not here to lecture India on Ukraine.’ Prime Minister (Johnson) will not do that. That’s not his style.”
Strengthening defence ties in the Indo-Pacific
Both UK and India are keen to project that their ties span the globe, just like with the US. “He is not losing sight of the Indo-Pacific. PM is really determined to get to India and talks about Ukraine obviously and many other topics around the world,” said sources.
The joint statement issued after the 2021 virtual summit affirmed their “shared vision of an open, free, inclusive and rules-based Indo-Pacific region”, which will be repeated this year. It also reflected the “tilt to the Indo-Pacific”, as articulated in the Integrated Review released in March 2021.
However, India and the UK are on opposite sides of a crucial geopolitical issue in the Indo-Pacific region. India has consistently backed the Mauritius’ attempt to implement the 2019 ICJ’s advisory opinion, which ruled against the UK’s control of the Chagos archipelago. With the US leasing Diego Garcia as its military base till 2036, the UK has rejected the ICJ opinion and the 2021 ruling of the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea.
Incidentally, Mauritius Prime Minister Pravind Kumar Jugnauth was also in Gujarat when Boris Johnson’s plane landed in Ahmedabad. Jugnauth had also met with the Indian PM on Thursday, but the official readout from the Indian foreign ministry did not mention if the Chagos issue came up. India also doesn’t want to see a dilution in the presence of Western navies in the Indian ocean, especially when Chinese influence has spread far and wide in the region.
While they remain officially silent on this tricky matter, both sides are hyping their defence ties. The UK has stationed a liaison officer to India’s Information Fusion Centre in Gurgaon, as mentioned in the 2021 joint statement. The document had also called for collaboration on military technologies, including combat aircraft, maritime propulsion systems and complex weapons, through “co-development and co-production”.
Ahead of the visit, diplomatic sources said that technology transfer would remain part of the arsenal of measures required to strengthen defence ties. The West may be keener to make concessions to wean India away from its military relationship with Russia since it views that link as the key to New Delhi’s alignment with Moscow.
Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi attend a meeting during COP26 in Glasgow, November 2, 2021. Photo: Reuters/Phil Noble/Pool
FTA waiting in the wings?
With post-Brexit UK having an appetite for signing trade deals, both sides had launched talks for a Free Trade Agreement as part of the ‘Enhanced trade partnership’ announced in May 2021.
The first round of FTA talks was held in January 2021, with the second one concluded last month. The third round is expected to begin this weekend.
With the FTA still to be finalised, the two leaders are only likely to call for increasing the momentum of the talks to get a joint document on the table before the end of this year.
At the end of the second round, the two sides had shared their versions of a trade deal, which now requires to be reconciled to reach a final shape acceptable to both the countries. Sources stated that the third round would look into market access, services and investment.
The Financial Times had noted that a top UK demand was the elimination of tariffs for British whisky. It also pointed out that while two-way trade was worth 18.5 billion pounds ($24.15 billion) in 2020, it has largely stagnated over the last decade. “By comparison, trade between the UK and Belgium in the same year was £38 billion”.
According to the UK’s department of international trade, an FTA deal could increase exports from the UK by up to 16.7 billion pounds by 2035.
India has long linked lowering trade barriers with increasing immigration access to professionals to the UK, which is politically contentious for a Conservative government. After the UK removed the cap on skilled workers, Indians accounted for the largest number of visas for skilled workers. As per sources, India accounts for 40% of all skilled worker visas issued by the UK – “and that number is increasing”.
During consultations with stakeholders, the UK department of trade found that many wanted more “to be done to protect UK investments and reassure UK investors establishing and operating in India”.
As per sources, India continues to have a difference of opinion over the investment section of the FTA, especially on dispute settlement mechanisms, which may mean that a more truncated version of the trade deal could be announced initially.
With a trade deal not on the cards during this visit, the UK has tried to frame the trip in terms of increasing jobs.
The first press release issued by the UK government in tandem with Johnson’s arrival in Gujarat claimed that one billion pounds worth of commercial deals would be confirmed during the trip. He also visited a British firm’s factory and a biotechnology university working in collaboration with the University of Edinburgh during his trip to Gujarat, the first by a UK prime minister.
