New Delhi: Even as the US recently walked back on reports that it was planning to withdraw 7,000 troops from Afghanistan, Kabul has accelerated its preparations for the highly-likely scenario of large-scale disengagement by the Trump administration.
When The New York Times reported last month that orders had been given for the withdrawal of 7,000 US troops from Afghanistan, it was a bolt from the blue. It came within days of the US president announcing a withdrawal of all troops from Syria. Jim Mattis’s resignation as US defence secretary was linked to a disagreement with President Donald Trump over the US’s West Asia policy.
When Kabul reached out to the US for clarification, they were told that the ‘leaked’ news report was just one of several proposals being debated within the US government.
“What we have been told (by the US) is that this is (based on) a planning process for different scenarios,” said Afghan National Security Advisor Hamdullah Mohib. “For the time being, it is not a decision yet,” he told a select group of journalists in the Indian capital on Saturday.
Mohib was in Delhi for two days for talks with his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval.
The Afghan NSA also noted that the “numbers that are being spoken of are numbers that were increased in 2017”. Two years ago, US troops levels were increased to more than 14,000 from 8,600 when Trump was sworn into office.
“So it’s not going to have a significant impact if they are going to be taken back,” he said.
While Indian sources also confirmed that the withdrawal would be a return to the “status quo”, there were concerns that the Afghan military may not be able to fill in all the gaps immediately.
The 35-year-old NSA exuded confidence that any withdrawal will not impact combat operations against the Taliban and other terror groups.
“There are several US mechanisms for engagement in military. Under Operation Resolute Support, there are train advise assist commands and then there is counter-terrorism. There has never been any discussion on reduction in counter-terrorism. But there has been in the train advice assist process. That will fluctuate on what our needs are,” he stated.
Self-reliance
Mohib, who was earlier deputy chief of staff in the presidential office and then an ambassador in Washington, noted that since 2014, Afghanistan has been preparing for “full self-reliance” by the self-imposed deadline of 2024.
“I must say, when we think about 2024, that is an ideal situation when we have all the time that we need in terms of preparation, needs of the air force and special forces,” he said.
While some of the reforms have been completed, “other processes we are accelerating”.
He cited the example of the development of Afghan air force within the next four years. “The plan is that by 2023, we would have 315 aircraft at our disposal, for all our needs…We have tried to expedite some of those (acquisitions), so that we get them before 2023. Once we can provide assistance to our ground troops from air, a big need for US presence would be diminished”. Last year, US military planes dropped more bombs in Afghanistan than at the height of the US troop surge in 2011.
Also read: What Talking to the Taliban Means
Last year, India had committed to supply four Mi-25 attack helicopters. Previously, India had given four military choppers and three light utility helicopters.
To a question on whether Afghanistan is ready for an abrupt withdrawal announcement ahead of the US presidential elections, he replied, “The deadline of 2024 was for full self-reliance for Afghanistan, economically, militarily, in every aspect. We are still working towards that. In instances where we may not have that amount of time, we are prepared for all scenarios as well”.
As per government sources, there is also apparent interest in Kabul in learning about ways to bring down the cost of the Afghan military from its bloated first-world terms to more reasonable South Asian level of funding.
The senior Afghan official said that the visit to India was not to discuss “specifics”, but to take a larger view about the strategic partnership.
The current visit was previously scheduled, but takes place just a day after President Trump disparaged India’s financial contribution to Afghanistan’s development.
Peace process
Mohib said he wanted to also keep India in the loop about recent developments over the peace process.
“…There is a lot of disinformation… So part of my effort in being here in India is to ensure that you are fully abreast of what is going on in that process, where we are and how do we continue on the path to stability in the region,” he stated.
He noted that India and Afghanistan were “eye-to-eye” on fighting terrorism and the peace process.
India has tried to be in the room when the Afghan peace process is discussed in multilateral fora. In the last meeting of the Moscow format, a Taliban delegation was invited to the table, which led India to register a “non-official” presence.
Asked if the Afghan government would like India to open a channel with Taliban, he said, “What I am saying is that there are efforts already underway to facilitate intra-Afghan dialogue. We would like to see all our regional partners consolidate and focus on those efforts, rather than starting their own.”
The press release issued by the Indian ministry of external affairs after the NSA-level talks pointedly urged “Regional and international partners of Afghanistan need to work keeping in mind the priorities, wishes and desire of the Afghan people”.
Recently, a Taliban delegation was invited to Tehran – which raised eyebrows in several regional capitals. Iran, along with India and Russia, had supported the Northern Alliance which fought against the Taliban. However, with increasing American antagonism, Tehran has also reached out to the Taliban in the last few years.
Indian mandarins had been a bit disconcerted about the seemingly fast pace of the talks, with US’s special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad holding a series of talks with representatives of Taliban’s Qatar office outside Afghanistan. However, Afghan officials have indicated that much of the visible bustle, including the shuttle diplomacy of the Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, may not have much substance.
Khalilzad had earlier indicated that he expected to reach a peace deal with the Taliban before the presidential elections which were earlier scheduled for April.
Also read: The Afghanistan of Today is Not Yet Ready for Peace
However, the Afghan NSA wasn’t too impressed. “It is difficult to put deadlines on peace,” he said.
Last month, Khalilzad held “substantive” talks with Taliban officials in Abu Dhabi, where media reports said that the US discussed the withdrawal of troops. The Taliban representative had refused to meet an Afghan government delegation who were waiting for them in a nearby hotel.
Mohib indicated that the Afghan government was not too happy.
“The US has a bilateral security agreement with Afghanistan, endorsed by the senate and asked by Loya Jirga. All presidential candidates said in their campaign that they will ratify the agreement and then the NUG signed it. If we have to decide any other format, it has to go through a similar process. These discussions cannot happen behind closed doors. It is for the people to decide whether they want to have an international presence in Afghanistan or not,” he said.
He reiterated that the “talks that must happen is intra-Afghan”.
Indicating that Kabul was not keen on the multiplicity of talks by foreign governments with the Taliban, Mohib asserted, “that (intra-Afghan talks) is the only way for any peace effort. Those who engage with the Taliban outside of that format. Some are helpful, and some are unhelpful”.
On the delayed presidential elections, Mohib said that it was due to have better preparations keeping in mind the lessons from the parliamentary polls, whose results have yet to be discussed. “There is no backstory to it,” said Mohib, dismissing reports that the US had urged postponement of polls to avoid any ‘distraction’ from the peace process.
