For BJP, a Bitter Reminder That Assembly Polls Are Fought on Local Issues

Basic problems faced by people like declining businesses, inadequate returns in agriculture, law and order issues and unemployment dominate assembly elections. But BJP did not seem to remember this.

New Delhi: A hung assembly in Haryana and a lacklustre majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance in Maharashtra lay bare the fragility of the saffron party on Thursday, when results of the assembly polls of the two states were announced

One would be hard pressed to believe that the same BJP had won back power with a stunning majority in the Lok Sabha polls a few months ago. 

While in Haryana BJP stopped six seats short of a simple majority, the Shiv Sena-BJP combine in Maharashtra barely managed to cross the half-way mark.

The results will come as a dampener for the National Democratic Alliance, once compared to its performance in the 2014 assembly polls in these states. But once placed against the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the outcome is nothing short of a catastrophe, despite the BJP being in a commanding position to form governments in both states.

Remember the parliamentary poll figures? BJP had then finished with a 58% vote share in Haryana and a 51.34% share (along with Shiv Sena) in Maharashtra. 

BJP leaders, including chief ministers Devendra Fadnavis and Manohar Lal Khattar had predicted a “one-sided contest” in favour of their party. Even analysts had spoken of the fact that the lack of a credible opposition, which could challenge the BJP’s mighty organisation, and its resultant inability to counter Modi-Shah’s high-pitched campaign on Article 370’s dilution in Jammu and Kashmir should make things easy for the saffron party.

Also read: With the Pause of the BJP Juggernaut, a Lesson in Keeping Arrogance in Check

Most opinion polls projected a two-thirds majority for the saffron party in both the states. 

Yet, mandates in the two states reflect anything but what BJP must have wished for. Not only has it struggled to retain its majority, it may also have to give its allies disproportionate share of power to remain in power. 


Where did it go wrong?

Despite the arrogance and complacency the BJP sat on, there are multiple political factors that were at play. 

Assembly elections strengthen grassroots democracy. A voter’s connection with her MLA is much stronger than her Lok Sabha representative. An MLA is expected to address prominent livelihood concerns of her constituency. Basic problems faced by people like declining businesses, inadequate returns in agriculture, law and order, unemployment and such life issues dominate people’s minds in state elections. 

Also read | Ground Report: Why Is Haryana Not Supporting the BJP in Full Strength?

This is where the BJP took its misstep. Confident of its perception management machinery, it pegged the assembly elections entirely on Modi government’s decision to nullify Article 370 and its plan to implement an Assam NRC-like exercise in all states. In the process, it neglected livelihood concerns of people, let alone give them even small assurances. 

On the campaign trail, big media toed BJP’s line and ignored immediate issues as well.

The vacuum around these livelihood concerns that developed in the run-up to polls worried people. Across Haryana, voters told The Wire that this is probably the first assembly polls in the state where agrarian issues were not addressed. With a majority of people employed in the sector, it appeared as the defining gap in BJP’s campaign. 

While the BJP governments projected online governance and transparency as their alleged achievement, these hardly touched people.


The opposition parties, despite being beleaguered and fragmented, raised issues that related to people. In Maharashtra, it raised issues like poor flood management by Fadnavis government or its failure to provide relief to farmers and small-scale businessmen. In Haryana, it flagged issues like farmers’ suicide, rising unemployment and loss-making industries during the Khattar government’s tenure. 

The fact is that both Fadnavis and Khattar governments had nothing concrete to talk about as far as governance was concerned.

Instead, both relied on a social engineering model that pitched dominant caste groups against the rest. In Haryana, it attempted to build an anti-Jat social coalition in its favour whereas in Maharashtra, it played an anti-Maratha political game. 

Also read: Haryana: BJP Ministers Fall in a Heap as Party Stops Short of Half-Way Mark

The results are there for everyone to see. In both Haryana and Maharashtra, BJP has performed poorly in rural areas but remains popular in urban areas, where prime minister Narendra Modi’s charisma and his campaign against corruption and terrorism, resonate with large sections of middle classes. In contrast, opposition campaign that BJP favours the super-rich appeared to have penetrated deep into the rural hinterland.

The mandate is thus a vindication of the belief that regional considerations rule over national issues in assembly polls. It is also a proof that polarising social tactics alone do not always work. 

For the opposition, there are many take aways.

The success of Sharad Pawar or of Dushyant Chautala and Bhupinder Singh Hooda cements the fact that state-level mass leaders are in a better position to take on the BJP. Months before the parliamentary polls, Kamal Nath and Ashok Gehlot had led Congress to victories in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. 

The failure of Congress to empower its state-level leaders, and reducing each election into a“Modi vs Rahul Gandhi” match, has cost it dear.

Dushyant Chautala. Photo: Facebook/Dushyant Chautala

Sajjan Kumar, political analyst based in New Delhi, told The Wire that “state-level leaderships, be it Hooda or Pawar, anchored issues and made them relevant in an election scenario”.

He added, “There are many lessons for the opposition to be learnt. The results prove that if the state-level leadership is given autonomy to function, it can ensure that election does not get limited to BJP-driven cultural politics of nationalism and Hindutva.”

It is state-level leaders who are in a position to diversify election issues and veer debates towards what one can call people’s “occupational rather than cultural” issues, he said.  

Also read: Haryana Election Results Live: Dushyant Chautala Emerges Kingmaker

“Take the Congress of Amarinder Singh. He has emerged as the tallest leader in Punjab despite the fact that Congress is dealing with a very weak central leadership. Siddaramaiah in Karnataka has also proven his mettle,” he said, adding that their leaderships have prevented BJP from going the whole hog on Hindutva and its traditional cultural politics. 

Late Thursday evening, Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah attempted to placate the saffron party’s cadres. They said that both Haryana and Maharashtra were never those “traditional states” where the party was strong, and that a new team led the campaign. And yet, the party managed to emerge victorious for the second time, they seemed to want to say.

By attempting to motivate the rank and file which visibly looked demoralised, both Modi and Shah have perhaps set an example of how to lead. However, that does not take away from the fact that the Modi-Shah duo will be held responsible for Thursday’s humiliating results. Here were the two most-important leaders in the BJP believing that running a polarising national campaign, instead of addressing people’s immediate issues, will help them win easily. 

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Author: Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta

Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta is Political Affairs Editor at The Wire, where he writes on the realpolitik and its influences. At his previous workplace, Frontline, he reported on politics, conflicts, farmers’ issues, history and art. He tweets at @AjoyAshirwad and can be reached at ajoy@cms.thewire.in.