Five bellwether seats – Murbad, Pune Cantonment, Andheri East, Andheri West, and Kandivali East – have once again held their fort in the 2024 Maharashtra assembly elections.
In the swirling mess of Maharashtra’s political landscape, where alliances shift like desert sands and predictions often crumble like stale bread, a handful of constituencies stand as unlikely signals of predictability. Experts, humbled by the state’s electoral volatility, have often thrown up their hands, deeming the outcome anyone’s guess.
Yet, amidst this chaos, these seats have once again stubbornly adhered to a pattern, their results mirroring the larger political tide with an almost eerie consistency.
Murbad, in particular, has been a remarkable predictor since the very first election in 1952. This time around, the BJP secured a lead of more than 50,000 votes, once again maintaining its winning streak since 1952. Kisan Shankar Kathore, the seat’s incumbent, commanded a 74.75% vote share in the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly election.
The BJP also won in other bellwether constituencies: Pune Cantonment by 10,000 votes, Kandivali East by a massive 83,500 votes, and Andheri West by 19,000 votes, while the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) won in Andheri East with a margin of 34,000 votes.
Kiran Kamble, a voter in Pune Cantonment, observed that a close fight was afoot. “While there is a negative sentiment for the BJP in the state, the existing MLA seems to be winning due to his work and additional clout.” The culprit, he suggested, was the “significant vote split” caused by the proliferation of candidates, a phenomenon as familiar to Maharashtra as the monsoon itself.
The recent 2024 elections proved the bellwethers’ mettle once more, their results aligning neatly with the overall political outcome.